1/ Trump has no legal power to delay the 2020 election - but keep in mind that during the pandemic, some state officials postponed elections - even in defiance of court orders.
2/ What would happen in Nov, for instance, if GOP FL Gov DeSantis ordered state polling places in heavily democratic areas closed "for emergency public health reasons"?
3/ Or declared that the vote would be postponed for weeks throughout the state - again, for urgent public health reasons?
4/ Sure, by law only Congress has the power to change the date of presidential election - but states have great discretion over the time/place/manner of voting.
5/ If a governor sought to delay voting or close selected polling places, purportedly for public health reasons, would courts second guess the governor?
6/ How long would it take to get a court decision? Would it take long enough that the damage would be done?
7/ And say the courts say, "Sorry, no, you can't do that, governor" - what if the governor responded, "Tough luck, I'm doing it anyway, it's a public health call, sue me later"?
8/ (which happened in Ohio)
9/ Point being: don't kid yourself that polling places could not be closed and voting could not be delayed because "Trump has no legal power to do that."
10/ When you have a president who doesn't care about law or norms, supported by GOP elected officials who don't care about law or norms, you're in a whole different ball game
11/ (Not a fun ball game). And need to factor that into your planning.
12/ Trump doesn't have the legal power to delay the election - but he doesn't need it. All he needs is the ability to sow just enough confusion/uncertainty to make people stay home... or the ability to marshall just enough of his lackeys to do the same...
13/ B/c getting a small percentage of voters to stay home, or preventing a small percentage from voting, or delaying their ability to vote, could, in many states, be enough to swing the outcome his way.
14/ THAT is what we need to worry about and plan for.... and seek pledges from GOP officials that they won't try it... and hope that judges are paying close attention... and that local voting officials won't fall for this kind of trick.
15/ (Overall point here, ppl: don't assume that just because something is illegal, it won't happen. The law isn't a magic deus ex machina - it's effective only when we make it so. )
16/ "The law" won't protect us from efforts by Team Trump to manipulate or undermine the integrity of the election - law doesn't exist in a vacuum. And people stretch and break the law All.The.Time.
17/ We need to start from the premise that anti-democratic actors WILL attempt to monkey with the election in every way they can... trying to intimidate voters; selectively closing or suddenly changing polling places... "emergency" closures or delays... you name it.
18/ The law is only as effective as the people's will to make it effective... at every level, in every state, we need to have back up plans for all the "what ifs" -
19/ What if a polling place is suddenly closed? What if Trump falsely claims, on election eve, that the election has been postponed? What if voters are informed on the day of the election that their polling place is now on the other side of town?
What if they're told that polling places in their precinct/city/state all had to close with no notice because of a covid outbreak?
What will happen then? Need to make Plans B, C, D, E (and al the way through Z) now, not wait and hope nothing bad or illegal happens. Those plans need to encompass litigation, media, voter protection, public health, alternate transportation and communication networks, etc etc.
Anyhoo. Another day we can all talk about law, power, the conditions under which law is and is not powerful, the conditions under the powerful can trample the law, and the conditions under which the powerless can give power to the law. Goodnight.
Also, THIS: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
"The Constitution does not give Americans the right to vote for their president. Rather... a college of electors votes for the president, and Article II of the Constitution gives states nearly unlimited power to decide how these electors are chosen." theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
"Could states really deprive Americans of the right to vote for their president? In Bush v. Gore, a conservative majority on the Supreme Court held that the state “can take back the power to appoint electors” at any time. "
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
