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Avik Roy Profile picture
@Avik
Jul 31, 2020 • 6 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
New @FREOPP: Our updated charts comparing your risk of death from #COVID19 vs. influenza, and other top causes of death, by age bracket. We assumed a total of 200,000 coronavirus deaths for this analysis: freopp.org/estimating-the…
School-aged children continue to be at significantly higher risk (4-8x) of dying from influenza or pneumonia than from #COVID19. freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
While #COVID19 will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S. this year overall, it varies widely by age group. For school-aged children, the risk of death from many other causes, like accidents, cancer, and suicide, are much greater. freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
All of this points to the compelling case for safely reopening schools, as we explain in detail our major new @FREOPP paper by @DanLips, @PrestonCooper93, @lanheechen, @bobkocher, and myself. freopp.org/reopening-amer…
But what about children infecting teachers? In the paper, we extensively discuss the overwhelming evidence that younger children are not vectors of transmission. Image
"But," you say, "we can't learn from international experience with school reopenings because the U.S. is terrible and worse than every other country wrt #COVID19." That turns out to be false. Countries with U.S.-like mortality (e.g. Holland, Sweden) successfully reopened schools. Image

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More from @Avik

Avik Roy Profile picture
Dec 29, 2023
A week ago, popular Substacker @HC_Richardson reiterated the widely held—but factually flawed—view of most on the left that wealthy Americans don't pay their "fair share" of taxes, and that we can fix this problem by adopting European tax policies. (1/x) Image
@HC_Richardson (2/x) It's true that OECD countries generally have higher tax burdens than the U.S. does. But they don't do it by taxing the rich more—but by taxing the *middle class* more through payroll & consumption taxes. U.S. depends much *more* on progressive income taxes. Image
@HC_Richardson (3/x) In your typical EU country, the VAT tax (somewhat comparable to US sales taxes) is 21%. That's what pays for EU welfare states. The lowest standard VAT rate in Europe is Luxembourg's, at 16%. taxfoundation.org/data/all/globa…
Image
Read 7 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Jul 13, 2023
THREAD: I'm honored to announce today the publication of the Freedom Conservatism Statement of Principles, signed by over 80 leaders of the liberty movement. Its core idea is this: the thing that has made America great is *freedom*. freedomconservatism.org/p/freedom-cons…
As you know, more and more people on the left and the right reject the importance of liberty. Some of these people call themselves "national conservatives" even though they reject the American political tradition in favor of...Hungary's? Forget that.
The Freedom Conservatism statement of takes inspiration from the Sharon Statement, signed by a group of young conservatives at the home of William F. Buckley, Jr., in 1960. (Buckley, the founder @NRO, built the postwar American conservative movement.) yaf.org/news/the-sharo…
Read 24 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Sep 16, 2022
(1/x) Natcons claim to speak for The People™, and not the "cocktail-party class," on all issues but especially immigration. Strangely, however, the views expressed by natcons at cocktail parties don't reflect those of the American public, especially wrt legal immigration.
(2/x) Natcons are not only critics of illegal immigration, but of *legal* immigration, seeking "much more restrictive policies" and even a "moratorium." But only 33% of *Rs* support reducing legal immigration. 61% say it should stay the same or increase. pewresearch.org/politics/2018/…
(3/x) And, as a reminder, Republicans are a minority of the voting public. Overall, only 24% of Americans support reducing legal immigration. 32% support increasing it, and 38% want it to stay the same. Reducing legal immigration is, in fact, an anti-populist position.
Read 5 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Aug 3, 2022
Climate & energy policy debates in the U.S. & elsewhere focus a lot on how to reduce & constrict U.S. energy use (because wind & solar can't meet current U.S. energy needs; in 2022, renewable capacity is 311 GW out of 1145 GW total).
But almost no one talks about how renewables alone are going to meet *future* U.S. energy demand. @EIAGov projects that by 2050, U.S. generating capacity will have to increase by 57% just to meet demand from population & economic growth, electric cars, etc.
In a new paper for @FREOPP, "The Urgency of Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Energy Regulation," @grantadever walks through why nuclear is the only path to a lower-carbon world with affordable, reliable, accessible energy. So what's the holdup? freopp.org/rethinking-u-s…
Read 6 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Apr 15, 2022
According to my sources, the SEC/DOJ "investigation" of @ElonMusk is timed to thwart his bid for @Twitter. Normally, in the absence of a better offer, Twitter's board is effectively obligated by its fiduciary duty to shareholders to accept Musk's offer. If true, it's scandalous.
@elonmusk @Twitter (By "if true" I mean, if true that the investigation is an effort to thwart the acquisition.)
Elon has several options if the board uses the excuse of the SEC/DOJ investigation to reject his offer. For example, he can attempt to go directly to the shareholders (which, again, works in the absence of a better offer). Not sure whether he is willing to, though.
Read 6 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Feb 4, 2022
This @bgmasters campaign ad pretty much crystallizes @FREOPP scholars' work on the rising cost of living: housing, healthcare, education are the biggest drivers.
@bgmasters @FREOPP All sorts of regulations—federal, state, and local—conspire to constrict the supply of housing. freopp.org/housing/home
Washington has put gasoline on the fire of rising costs in higher education, by letting colleges treat taxpayers like ATMs. freopp.org/college/home
Read 4 tweets

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