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Avik Roy Profile picture
@Avik
Jul 31, 2020 • 6 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
New @FREOPP: Our updated charts comparing your risk of death from #COVID19 vs. influenza, and other top causes of death, by age bracket. We assumed a total of 200,000 coronavirus deaths for this analysis: freopp.org/estimating-the…
School-aged children continue to be at significantly higher risk (4-8x) of dying from influenza or pneumonia than from #COVID19. freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
While #COVID19 will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S. this year overall, it varies widely by age group. For school-aged children, the risk of death from many other causes, like accidents, cancer, and suicide, are much greater. freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
All of this points to the compelling case for safely reopening schools, as we explain in detail our major new @FREOPP paper by @DanLips, @PrestonCooper93, @lanheechen, @bobkocher, and myself. freopp.org/reopening-amer…
But what about children infecting teachers? In the paper, we extensively discuss the overwhelming evidence that younger children are not vectors of transmission. Image
"But," you say, "we can't learn from international experience with school reopenings because the U.S. is terrible and worse than every other country wrt #COVID19." That turns out to be false. Countries with U.S.-like mortality (e.g. Holland, Sweden) successfully reopened schools. Image

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More from @Avik

Avik Roy Profile picture
Oct 1
(1/x) In advance of tonight's #VPDebate, I thought I'd comment on a @crampell piece falsely claiming that @JDVance wants to "destroy the health-care system." I know more about JD's views on health care than pretty much anyone outside of his team, due to firsthand interactions.
@crampell @JDVance (2/x) The @crampell piece is here: . It's full of misrepresentations of @JDVance's views. JD was against the GOP's repeal-and-replace efforts, because JD believes in universal coverage, as do I (though I supported AHCA/BCRA). washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…
nytimes.com/2017/07/21/opi…
@crampell @JDVance (3/x) @crampell makes an actuarially illiterate argument that it is *necessary* to overcharge young and healthy people for health insurance in order to have a functioning insurance system. This is the opposite of the truth. Overcharging the healthy blows up insurance markets.
Read 11 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Jul 19
🧵(1/x): I want to extend my sincerest congratulations to @JDVance1 for nomination as the GOP VP candidate. I have great respect for JD. There are things we disagree on (e.g. ) but many essential things we *do* agree on, as I will explain in this thread.
@JDVance1 (2/x) JD and I first got to know each other a few years after he graduated from law school. He shared my view that free-market alternatives to Obamacare should strive to achieve universal coverage, and that there was a role for government in doing so. nytimes.com/2017/07/21/opi…
@JDVance1 (3/x) The biggest obstacle to health reform isn't the left-right debate, but the contest between reformers and economic elites, the latter of whom benefit from high-cost health care. JD is absolutely right that economic elites, in many sectors of our economy, are self-serving.
Read 9 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Dec 29, 2023
A week ago, popular Substacker @HC_Richardson reiterated the widely held—but factually flawed—view of most on the left that wealthy Americans don't pay their "fair share" of taxes, and that we can fix this problem by adopting European tax policies. (1/x) Image
@HC_Richardson (2/x) It's true that OECD countries generally have higher tax burdens than the U.S. does. But they don't do it by taxing the rich more—but by taxing the *middle class* more through payroll & consumption taxes. U.S. depends much *more* on progressive income taxes. Image
@HC_Richardson (3/x) In your typical EU country, the VAT tax (somewhat comparable to US sales taxes) is 21%. That's what pays for EU welfare states. The lowest standard VAT rate in Europe is Luxembourg's, at 16%. taxfoundation.org/data/all/globa…
Image
Read 7 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Jul 13, 2023
THREAD: I'm honored to announce today the publication of the Freedom Conservatism Statement of Principles, signed by over 80 leaders of the liberty movement. Its core idea is this: the thing that has made America great is *freedom*. freedomconservatism.org/p/freedom-cons…
As you know, more and more people on the left and the right reject the importance of liberty. Some of these people call themselves "national conservatives" even though they reject the American political tradition in favor of...Hungary's? Forget that.
The Freedom Conservatism statement of takes inspiration from the Sharon Statement, signed by a group of young conservatives at the home of William F. Buckley, Jr., in 1960. (Buckley, the founder @NRO, built the postwar American conservative movement.) yaf.org/news/the-sharo…
Read 24 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Feb 1, 2023
@JDVance1 The @JDVance1 I know has the potential to be a good, even great, senator someday. So I'll leave the ad hominem alone and stick to data and economics. (1) 1 million Ukrainian refugees don't live in Hungary. 2.12MM have crossed the border into Hungary; 2.08MM (98.4%) then left. Image
@JDVance1 ...Those 2.08 million Ukrainians who crossed into Hungary apparently believed that their families would face better prospects outside of Hungary than inside of it. (2) Hungary has a population of 9.7 million; it isn't plausible that a pop. increase of 0.3% caused 25% inflation.
@JDVance1 (3) The anti-immigration argument natcons usually supply is that immigration is *deflationary*; i.e., that immigrants drive down wages (and thereby prices) by competing with native-born labor. But in Hungary, natcons make the opposite argument: that immigration is inflationary.
Read 6 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
Sep 16, 2022
(1/x) Natcons claim to speak for The People™, and not the "cocktail-party class," on all issues but especially immigration. Strangely, however, the views expressed by natcons at cocktail parties don't reflect those of the American public, especially wrt legal immigration.
(2/x) Natcons are not only critics of illegal immigration, but of *legal* immigration, seeking "much more restrictive policies" and even a "moratorium." But only 33% of *Rs* support reducing legal immigration. 61% say it should stay the same or increase. pewresearch.org/politics/2018/…
(3/x) And, as a reminder, Republicans are a minority of the voting public. Overall, only 24% of Americans support reducing legal immigration. 32% support increasing it, and 38% want it to stay the same. Reducing legal immigration is, in fact, an anti-populist position.
Read 5 tweets

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