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Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
@Marco_Langbroek
Jul 31, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Navigational Warnings issued today, indicate that a #Minuteman III #ICBM will be test-fired from Vandenberg AFB between August 4 and 6.
Test range indicated by Area Warnings is ~7200 km.
Plotted trajectory is simple ballistic
@mhanham @wslafoy @ArmsControlWonk @ISNJH @planet4589 ImageImage
HOLD ON! There is yet another area, that I overlooked as it was not in the same Area Warning set!

Will update the map...give me some time.
Hmmm, on second look, not sure it is related. Times of the window do not match.....opens about an hour after the other time windows.... Image
Here is it mapped, the red area inclusing Kwajalein is the second Area Warning I mentioned.
Still on the edge about this: why the mismatch in time? Image
*here it is*, not 'here is it' - apologies, I am tired and start to write Dunglish.... (in Dutch you put the 'is' in front of 'it').
A Minuteman III test to be performed in August was indeed announced on April 30. See this Air Force news release:
20af.af.mil/News/Article-D…
An unarmed #Minuteman III #ICBM was test launched from Vandenberg, California towards Kwajalein at 7:21 GMT today
vandenberg.af.mil/News/Article-D…

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More from @Marco_Langbroek

Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
Nov 18, 2023
So, I did some simulations with GMAT.
Assumptions:
- For totally arbitrary drag area of 1 m^2;
- Near-orbital speed at disintegration;
- disintegration at 148 km;
labels are mass in kg of fragment.
@planet4589 @DJSnM @Ian_Benecken Image
2/x
 additional info: no mass loss due to ablation upon reentry (this is important: if they do loose mass 9and they will), they come down earlier than in the map)
3/x
 Nevertheless: they appear to be surviving a lot further downrange than I actually had anticipated.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
1/x
 The very successful @AETUDelft-built 3U cubesat Delfi-C3, launched 15 yrs ago, is near the end of its life. It will probably reenter into the atmosphere next month.
Yesterday evening, I managed to image it with my tracking camera from Leiden, the Netherlands: Image
2/x
 Here is the video footage (it is very faint, being a 3U cubesat, i.e. 10 x 10 x 30 cm large). Footage was shot at 25 fps with a WATEC 902H2 Supreme and Samyang 2.0/135 mm lens.
3/x
 Over the past months, the cubesat has been coming down increasingly fast. Currently it is in a 351 x 365 km orbit (when launched in 2008, it was at 615 x 635 km) Image
Read 8 tweets
Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
Feb 18, 2023
Approximate trajectory flown by the #ICBM that #NorthKorea tested today. A highly lofted trajectory.
(reconstruction based on Japanese DoD info).

When launched on a 'normal', non-lofted trajectory, the range would be 18000+ km, i.e. capable of reaching any place on Earth
Trajectory is based on rough information on apogee, range, and map with approximate impact point provided by Japanese DoD here:
mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…
It will be interesting to see what missile it concerns when Northg Korea publishes their propaganda photo's. Hwasong-17? Something new?
Read 9 tweets
Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
Aug 1, 2022
Rumour has it that thisd might be another inspector satellite.
The orbital plane of USA 326 passes over Plesetsk at 20:25 UT
USA 326 (2022-009A) was launched on February 2 this year and is believed to be a new generation of electro-optical reconnaissance satellite:
sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-up…
It is in a 97.4 deg inclined, 518 x 488 km orbit.
The Russian launch today was indeed at 20:25 UTC, right at the moment the USA 326 orbital plane passed over Plesetsk (i.e. the launch was into the orbital plane of USA 326):
interfax.ru/russia/854824
Read 6 tweets
Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
Feb 26, 2022
1/x
 Navigational Warnings have appeared that suggest a #test launch of a #Minuteman #ICBM from Vandenberg on March 3 - 4.

(I suspect 1 or 2 more NavWarnings to appear for areas around Kwajalein, based on previous tests)
@nukestrat @mhanham @wslafoy @ArmsControlWonk ImageImage
2/x
 To be clear (as such suggestions always arrise):
This has *nothing* to do with the Ukraine crisis. Tests like these are scheduled months in advance.
They are regular tests to ascertain the readiness and training of missile crews.
3/x
 As I expected, another Navigational Warning has appeared, adding an extra hazard area west of Kwajalein.
Updated map for this upcoming #Minuteman III test (probably GT240GM): ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
Oct 17, 2021
1/x
 (lange) draad:
Het gaat véél verder dan een "hypersonische raket": de Fin. Times claimt dat de Chinese test een test voor FOBS betrof...

FOBS staat voor "Fractional Orbital Bormbardment System". FOBS lanceer je niet op een ballistisch traject zoals een normale ICBM, (cont.)
2/x
 ...maar worden echt in een baan om de aarde gebracht, zoals een satelliet. Waarna op een gegeven moment met een deorbit burn door een retroraket, de lading weer omlaag wordt gebracht, boven het doelwit.
Welnu: waarom zou je dit zo doen in plaats van een normale ICBM lanceren?
3/x
 Het voordeel van FOBS is dat het je toestaat toe te slaan vanuit richtingen die met gewone ICBM's niet worden verwacht. Via een traject over de zuidpool bijvoorbeeld. Dan benader je de VS (het doelwit) vanuit het zuiden (gele lijn), terwijl
Read 26 tweets

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