Thread:
LFC had effectively won the league on Jan 29th after 24 games when we had a 19 point lead (some could argue we had it won earlier than that but there is no argument after GW24)
LFC had effectively won the league on Jan 29th after 24 games when we had a 19 point lead (some could argue we had it won earlier than that but there is no argument after GW24)
This thread is going to look at the numbers from those first 24 games when LFC were W23 D1 L0 F56 A15. It is going to ignore everything that happened after as inconsequential. All XG data from understat.com
We have identified 4 critical factors across the 24 games
1) Game State.
In those first 24 games the most important thing to note is that #LFC spent 60% of the time WINNING. This is an almost unprecedented figure in the EPL.
Furthermore, only 8% was spent losing (187 mins)
1) Game State.
In those first 24 games the most important thing to note is that #LFC spent 60% of the time WINNING. This is an almost unprecedented figure in the EPL.
Furthermore, only 8% was spent losing (187 mins)
LFC only went behind 4 times and only conceded 2 goals when leading by 1 goal.
9 of the 15 goals conceded came in "garbage time" when already leading by 2+ goals
9 of the 15 goals conceded came in "garbage time" when already leading by 2+ goals
2) Defensive Performance when tied/losing
LFC's defensive performance when tied or losing was exceptional conceding just 0.7 XG p90 mins (understat)
LFC's defensive performance when tied or losing was exceptional conceding just 0.7 XG p90 mins (understat)
7/24 opponents had zero XG when the game was tied
Another 8 had < 0.2 XG
Only one opponent (Southampton) managed >1 XG when tied
Another 8 had < 0.2 XG
Only one opponent (Southampton) managed >1 XG when tied
3) Outperforming XG when tied
LFC scored 26 goals when the game was tied compared to 16.85 XG, that's a huge overperformance of +9 goals.
LFC scored 26 goals when the game was tied compared to 16.85 XG, that's a huge overperformance of +9 goals.
Is that unsustainable? On the face of it yes
But now consider that the 26 includes TWO Own Goals and SEVEN set piece goals, mostly headers from FK's/Corners.
That's nearly all of the 9 goal overperformance explained
But now consider that the 26 includes TWO Own Goals and SEVEN set piece goals, mostly headers from FK's/Corners.
That's nearly all of the 9 goal overperformance explained
OG's Norwich, Burnley
Set Plays
Matip v Arsenal
Trent v Chelsea
Mane v Villa
Firmino v Palace
VVD v Brighton
VVD v United
Hendo v Wolves
Set Plays
Matip v Arsenal
Trent v Chelsea
Mane v Villa
Firmino v Palace
VVD v Brighton
VVD v United
Hendo v Wolves
4) Opposition underperforming XG when behind by 1 goal
Our opponents scored just TWO goals from 9.15 XG when behind by 1 goal
This is the least sustainable of the 4 factors because you simply won't see streaks of opponents only scoring 1/14 big chances ever again
Our opponents scored just TWO goals from 9.15 XG when behind by 1 goal
This is the least sustainable of the 4 factors because you simply won't see streaks of opponents only scoring 1/14 big chances ever again
6 of the 14 them were fresh-air shots/mis-kicks under zero defensive pressure. Here's the video clips for your delectation:
Ings
Dunk
Sarr
McBurnie
Pereira
Ings
Dunk
Sarr
McBurnie
Pereira
Finally, here's the supporting data collected from the understat match logs /End 
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