People were right to freak out about @realDonaldTrump's election tweets - but for less obvious reasons. He's turned mail voting into a partisan issue, and with lots more Dems set to vote by mail and mail ballots more likely to get tossed, a crisis looms. vice.com/en_us/article/…
Polls show Dems are 2x as likely to vote by mail as R's this year. That means Trump could be up considerably on election night before #s swing dramatically in Dems' favor in the days/weeks afterwards. Trump will likely lie, claim fraud. But the bigger threat: disenfranchisement
Usually, mail ballots get tossed at 1%-4% rates depending on the state, but that's not that big a deal since it's usually roughly equal D&R. This year they're gonna be much more heavily Dem — and that rate could double, if things look like they did during this year's primaries.
All this won't matter if @realDonaldTrump is losing the national vote by 8ish pts like he is currently. But if things get close, we could be looking at months of court fights and one side that won't accept the results, whatever they are. This is a really dangerous situation.
(For a good sense of how much things could swing from election day to the full count, a recent NY House special went from the Repub up by 40 on election day to him only winning by 5 after mail ballots were counted. That might be an extreme example — but def possible.)
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I spent the last few months trying to get my head around Tommy Tuberville for @RollingStone. Talked to him multiple times, chatted with former players and a bunch of senators.
Claremont recently opened its first state-based office in its history in FL, and DeSantis rolled out the red carpet.
He's involved them in his hostile takeover of New College, his push to end DEI programs and a K-12 civics program.
They're involved in his nascent campaign too.
“On a whole range of issues where wokeness is a threat he has risen to the occasion—rhetorically, but he’s also trying to do something about it legislatively," Claremont Institute senior fellow Charles Kesler, who DeSantis appointed at New College, told me.
Trump and his allies have spent two-plus years plotting to turn states with slower vote counts into scenes of chaotic protest, last-minute lawsuits and outright rejections of the democratic process.
“I'm very concerned about the possibility of violence in the post-election period incited by losing candidates."
The two swing states where conditions are most ripe for chaos:
Arizona (mail-heavy state, vigilante voter intimidation, a slate of election-denying candidates)
Pennsylvania (slow mail ballot counting caused by intentional GOP intransigence, focus from Trump folks)
“After I pulled an all nighter watching The Fall of the Cabal, I was wrecked. Between the compelling evidence indicating that the migrant caravan in 2018 was totally staged, to the bone chilling saga of Pizzagate..."
"..., to the idea that JFK Jr. could still be alive (which I believe is completely false), my world was rocked."
Shuppe repeatedly used the QAnon hashtag WWG1WGA and referenced "the storm," and seemed particularly alarmed by pedophilia conspiracies (Pizzagate/Wayfair).