To the bears (a thread) —
“feels like early Jan/Feb” bears :
Unknown-unknowns (Covid hitting Italy, 3GDam burst, etc) and not Known-unknowns (fiscal cliff, FED, blah blah). Unless you’re that special ‘Sven-like’ cat who celebrates -250bps as victory after being offside by 250%.
“feels like early Jan/Feb” bears :
Unknown-unknowns (Covid hitting Italy, 3GDam burst, etc) and not Known-unknowns (fiscal cliff, FED, blah blah). Unless you’re that special ‘Sven-like’ cat who celebrates -250bps as victory after being offside by 250%.
2/
To the “feels like ‘99” bears :
Where were bond yields in 99 again? This isn’t a voodoo ERP snark, but the reality of TINA. When Stan felt the tech froth in ‘99 he had the option of parking cash in T-bills at 5-6% ffs.
To the “feels like ‘99” bears :
Where were bond yields in 99 again? This isn’t a voodoo ERP snark, but the reality of TINA. When Stan felt the tech froth in ‘99 he had the option of parking cash in T-bills at 5-6% ffs.
3/
So if it’s not CASH that it’s (=Tech) competing with, what is it, XLI ?!? Really? If “yes” then be honest and admit you’re long vaccines, fair play.
So if it’s not CASH that it’s (=Tech) competing with, what is it, XLI ?!? Really? If “yes” then be honest and admit you’re long vaccines, fair play.
4/
To the “peak Fed optimism” bears :
Remember last yr when the zenith of global monetary policy had passed and left to be measured on the ‘impotence-insufficient’ scale? Yeah, how’s that Fed alphabet soup taste now? I bought a hat that says #EndTheFed not #FightTheFed
To the “peak Fed optimism” bears :
Remember last yr when the zenith of global monetary policy had passed and left to be measured on the ‘impotence-insufficient’ scale? Yeah, how’s that Fed alphabet soup taste now? I bought a hat that says #EndTheFed not #FightTheFed
5/
To the “but...the real economy” bears :
You ARE right. Just not yet. It’s hard enough to pick which horse to express your view but even harder to admit you are meanwhile : short medical progress, short FED, long fiscal harakiri, short TINA, long real rates...
To the “but...the real economy” bears :
You ARE right. Just not yet. It’s hard enough to pick which horse to express your view but even harder to admit you are meanwhile : short medical progress, short FED, long fiscal harakiri, short TINA, long real rates...
6/
...and only finding religion keeps you stubbornly in that mindspace.
To the “the mkt internals suckkk” bears :
Sure BUT the pull-forward of demand on an EPIC scale *actually* happened, not merely promised. Stocks imo are v pessimistic abt Covid consistent with the bond mkt.
...and only finding religion keeps you stubbornly in that mindspace.
To the “the mkt internals suckkk” bears :
Sure BUT the pull-forward of demand on an EPIC scale *actually* happened, not merely promised. Stocks imo are v pessimistic abt Covid consistent with the bond mkt.
7/
Reality can be in between “TINA 4eva” and “chickens coming home to roost” - esp when it’s handicapping KNOWN-unknows the market compartmentalizes very well.
Reality can be in between “TINA 4eva” and “chickens coming home to roost” - esp when it’s handicapping KNOWN-unknows the market compartmentalizes very well.
8/
There are other Bear groups I haven’t addressed, probably because they are the reasonable ones that are harder to pick apart.
...gotta spend Saturday with the kids not on Twitter. To be continued... @PolemicTMM @SuperMugatu @jturek18 @TeddyVallee can articulate better than me
There are other Bear groups I haven’t addressed, probably because they are the reasonable ones that are harder to pick apart.
...gotta spend Saturday with the kids not on Twitter. To be continued... @PolemicTMM @SuperMugatu @jturek18 @TeddyVallee can articulate better than me
