What a striking similarity between wealth management & product development:
- they’re explore/exploit problems
- practitioners divided between qual/quant, micro/macro
- both have hobbyist & professional subcultures driven by divisive cult-like personalities
- markets decide
- they’re explore/exploit problems
- practitioners divided between qual/quant, micro/macro
- both have hobbyist & professional subcultures driven by divisive cult-like personalities
- markets decide
A general principle which holds true for both:
https://twitter.com/fiskantes/status/1289884180633882624?s=21https://t.co/HvEqpViJtx
Abundance / scarcity applies to both as well:
https://twitter.com/joshuajames/status/1289767384551575553?s=21https://t.co/LfSpSOLqBZ
Also, arbitrage opportunities are rampant in both markets for products, and markets for assets.
The way to win is to avoid competition not to chase after it.
Weirdly, investing in the trend can also be profitable. But a mirage.
“A bull market makes a genius out of everybody”
The way to win is to avoid competition not to chase after it.
Weirdly, investing in the trend can also be profitable. But a mirage.
“A bull market makes a genius out of everybody”
Both worlds sometimes collide.
The dot-com bubble
Tech stonks
The crypto gold rush
Where you can ride the trend of the bull market by EITHER investing in assets OR by creating products in the same space.
The dot-com bubble
Tech stonks
The crypto gold rush
Where you can ride the trend of the bull market by EITHER investing in assets OR by creating products in the same space.
When technology products become assets, product managers and designers compete with hedge fund managers.
Your goal is to outperform the index of assets within your sector by finding arbitrage opportunities and exploiting them.
Your goal is to outperform the index of assets within your sector by finding arbitrage opportunities and exploiting them.
The nature of such arbitrage isn’t always obvious.
It doesn’t look like arbitrage. It’s not comparing bid prices from one market with asks from another.
It looks more like talking to customers, testing design prototypes with them, and doing A/B testing.
It doesn’t look like arbitrage. It’s not comparing bid prices from one market with asks from another.
It looks more like talking to customers, testing design prototypes with them, and doing A/B testing.
The goal of tech CEOs or CPOs is also to outperform the market.
They can do so by hedging, arbitraging, copy-trading, diversifying, dollar-cost averaging, options trading, etc.
We call them different things in tech companies. But the principles are similar.
They can do so by hedging, arbitraging, copy-trading, diversifying, dollar-cost averaging, options trading, etc.
We call them different things in tech companies. But the principles are similar.
To truly see success from failure, one must judge tech companies and their people not by their past performance.
You judge them by how much alpha they can generate.
Alpha being the delta of the team’s performance against the general market trend.
A profound implication.
You judge them by how much alpha they can generate.
Alpha being the delta of the team’s performance against the general market trend.
A profound implication.
If Crypto, AI, AR/VR are all trending, and a company or product within that sector manages to raise many multiples of its cashflow or get a lot of traction, that’s not “product-market fit” or success.
Did they beat the market or not? That’s the golden question.
Did they beat the market or not? That’s the golden question.
Picking a career in tech or a company to found, is therefore difficult.
Unlike buying tech stonks or crypto, you can’t invest in multiple ones and then rebalance your gains against losses.
The implication of which just dawned on me.
Unlike buying tech stonks or crypto, you can’t invest in multiple ones and then rebalance your gains against losses.
The implication of which just dawned on me.
It means: if your company is in a poor position to make any alpha against the market, you should consider cutting your losses and joining another one.
“Buy low, sell high” and “time in the market beats timing the market” applies to career decisions as well.
“Buy low, sell high” and “time in the market beats timing the market” applies to career decisions as well.
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