This Bloomberg article on the trickle-down supply of PPE to frontline healthcare workers and first responders hit a nerve.

So here’s a long thread on the truth about PPE supply in the United States today.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
My bona fides to talk about this stuff…

Since March, we’ve purchased and distributed about 120,000 N95 and KN95 masks to about 1,100 hospitals and clinics, police and fire depts, prisons and shelters.

We know masks, and we have a unique view of the real-world Covid situation.
We don’t compete with federal and state emergency authorities. We also don’t WAIT on federal and state authorities.

We send 100-200 masks directly to doctors, nurses, EMTs, public safety officers and social workers in urgent need of PPE, and they hand out to their teams.
Things ARE better today.

In April we were sending out 10-20k masks per week. Today it’s 5k per week.

In April we were sending out to ERs at major hospitals. Today the ERs are fine.

In April it cost $5 for a so-so KN95 mask. Today it’s half that for a high-quality KN95.
The big positive difference between April and today is that there is neither an urgent need nor a shortage of PPE in most ERs and ICUs in the country.

There is, however, a shortage or rationing of PPE in most “second-line” medical depts and clinics in the country.
When these second-line medical depts and clinics find themselves in a hot-spot, this shortage and rationing of hospital-supplied PPE becomes an urgent need.

That’s where we try to help.

More and more, the urgent need is coming from poor and rural counties.
Covid is now endemic in the US, meaning that it is *everywhere*. We’ve sent PPE to 47 states.

Covid is no longer just a big city thing, where lots of journalists see it. Covid is now ravaging towns like Nacogdoches and Montgomery, where no one sees it.

epsilontheory.com/self-assured-d…
Trickle-down PPE supply from these giant federal and state stockpiles is designed for big city and big hospital system distribution. It never gets to the second-line medical dept. It never gets to the rural county clinic or EMTs.

Just like trickle-down economics.
We can’t change the trickle-down nature of gov’t, not in time to help with the current crisis.

What we can do, though, is produce PPE on a wartime footing so that the trickle-down becomes a flood-down AND so that add’l gov’t distribution channels are opened.

Like to schools!
The effective monopoly that 3M enjoys on N95 mask production in this country is a war crime. I’m not joking. Not even a little bit.

news.3m.com/English/3m-sto…
Making a high-quality N95 protection level mask is NOT difficult. This isn’t a freakin’ vaccine. It’s a woven specialty fabric with two behind-the-head elastic bands (not ear loops) and a metal band on the nose for proper fit. That’s it.
We could have invested in PPE production.

We could have protected our doctors and nurses and EMTs and teachers and essential workers with medical respirators for ALL.

Instead we’re giving $765 million to Kodak.

epsilontheory.com/the-grifters-c…
Our govt’s failure to provide PPE to the American people is its greatest betrayal of all.

It’s not too late. We can still arm ALL of our essential workers – from nurses to teachers to grocery clerks – for battle.

But it will take a mighty howl.

epsilontheory.com/we-the-people-…

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More from @EpsilonTheory

Jan 15
The atmospheric shock waves from the volcanic explosion are visible in the satellite time lapse. Never seen anything like this.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 8
There is zero alpha in possessing knowledge and expertise regarding the fundamentals of publicly traded companies. Zero.
Fundamental investing was always just a narrative.
No one is a smarter, fiercer fundamental investor than Buffett + team. No one. They have a permanent pool of costless capital. They have access to every imaginable information source.

If alpha based on fundamental investing in public markets doesn’t exist here, it doesn’t exist.
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Dec 16, 2021
Important article published yesterday in Nature.

"the largest study to date of acute cardiac outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or infection, the first to compare the risk of cardiac events between different vaccine products and SARS-CoV2 infection"

nature.com/articles/s4159…
"First, there was an increase in the risk of myocarditis
within a week of receiving the first dose of both adenovirus and mRNA vaccines, and a higher increased risk after the second dose of both mRNA vaccines."

Increased myocarditis risk range is 1 to 10 per million doses.
"Second, in the same population, there was a greater risk of myocarditis, pericarditis and cardiac arrhythmia following SARS-CoV-2 infection."

Increased myocarditis risk is 40 per million infections.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
The global Covid situation reminds me of last winter, when different countries were experiencing *wildly* different Covid scenarios.

Here’s S. Korea, for example, long held up as an exemplar of strong policy responses, getting absolutely slammed by Covid today.
A record number of Americans - more than 10 million - have an active case of Covid today.

On average, more than 1,200 Americans die from Covid every day.

There is essentially zero media attention paid to this. It’s the new normal. Whatever.
More Americans are sick with Covid today than at any point in the past two years.

I find it striking that there is very little national media coverage of this.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9, 2021
If you're wondering how this plays out, wages will go up x% and tuition will go up x+2%.
Inflation is now common knowledge, which creates an inflation reality regardless of any other economic fundamentals.

Every company will now raise prices. Every worker will now push for higher wages. Whatever your inflation estimates are, they're too low.
epsilontheory.com/inflation-and-…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4, 2021
A vaccine-evading, insanely high R0 variant like Omicron is a *political* disaster for every nation that has gone all-in for mass vaccination.

Our failure to develop non-vax Covid mitigation strategies, like universal distribution of effective PPE, is a massive policy mistake.
I am as pro-vax as they come. But it is insane to me that Western gov'ts have put all of their Covid mitigation eggs into the mass vaccination basket, and nothing into universal PPE distribution or air filtration/ventilation retrofits.
Universal PPE distribution does NOT require a mask mandate.

Mask mandates are only for cloth mask theater, where the goal is to curtail the already infected from spreading the virus further.

If I wear effective PPE, I really don’t give a fuck if you choose to go unprotected.
Read 5 tweets

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