COVID Update August 2: If someone told you, you could save somebody’s life, your answer would be what do I have to do?
With thousands of people dying every week from a virus that now even the White House admits is out of control, our odds of saving lives have never been better.
Johns Hopkins has a model for how many people will die between now and November 1 if we do nothing different. It is 70,000, a number year ago that would have been unthinkable to imagine if it’s not unimaginable now.

70,000 in 3 months.
Rather than shrug it off, or despair, the right response in my opinion is “great, what do I have to do to prevent that.”

Here’s the great news, most of those 70,000 people are not even SICK today.
Those of us on that list are going about our business struggling through this pandemic, trying to stay safe, stay calm, stay sane, keep our incomes.

Hoping to figure out when & how to get our lives back.
Some of us on the list may be in denial. It’s scary. We don’t want the pandemic to “take over our lives.”

Maybe the numbers are in OUR favor. We’re young. Pretty healthy. White.
Maybe we won’t be the ones to die if we get it. Could be it passes through us unnoticed or w mild symptoms.

But what were we doing those last 8 days before we got the positive test? Who did we run into? It was pretty crowded that night. Any of them have sick family?
By one estimate we can save 30,000 lives with a simple action. Or lose 20,000 more by letting up. This is from Johns Hopkins.

Is this the most important thing?
During 9/11, many brave people rushed into those buildings. Several wrestled a plane to the ground. Many more enlisted in the military.

I was 34. I did none of those things.
My second child was born in November. My dad was dying. I knew 6 people who died. I have a friend whose father was a firefighter who died. He was 7 when his dad went into the South Tower.

Risking your life for others is unimaginable. I would never pretend to be brave enough.
But this. This I can do.

I am tough enough to put fabric on my face.
I’m persistent enough to ask others to do that.
I can surrender my personal liberty, gladly.
I do that all the time. See I never just do what I want without regard for others. Or if I do I feel like a shit.
But when I learned #zachsmath that each of us could save 20 lives by not breathing near other people, I was all “sign me up for that.” I am definitely brave enough for that.
I will admit I have stared at this graph a lot today to make it seem real. To zoom in & see someone’s mom who always knows what to say, someone’s sister who is a rock, an orderly who keeps hospital rooms clean.
I have trouble not comprehending why this isn’t without question the most important thing. I don’t know anyone who wouldn’t do whatever they could to save a life, 10, 30,000.

OK, I may know of one person. But he doesn’t really speak for me, or a lot of us.
What reason do we have to not do this? What reason do we have to not throw the kitchen sink at this?

What are we going to regret later knowing we could? Will it haunt us if we don’t when this time is over? /end

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More from @ASlavitt

Feb 19
COVID Update: We have been through many stages of the pandemic.

Now as the country & various states prepare to lay out the plan ahead, there are some things they must do. 1/
Yesterday I participated in the rollout of California’s SMARTER plan— a plan to look ahead & prepare.

But planning is especially hard when it’s hard to have any idea what form the virus may come back in. Still leaders have no choice. 2/
It feels like a great time, with cases down, for our leaders to change the subject & move on to the one of many other challenges on the agenda.

Beat the ones aren’t. They are taking the time to dig in & reset even if the public doesn’t want to hear it. 3/
Read 22 tweets
Feb 12
COVID Update: Today we hit the 2 year mark of the pandemic being declared by the WHO.

Here’s what we’re up against & what it means for what’s ahead. 1/
A- What makes SARS-CoV-2 unique?

There are more lethal bugs. There are more contagious bugs. But there are a combination of features which make this a particularly difficult enemy. 2/
SARS-CoV-2 is noteworthy for being a highly adaptable, shape-shifting virus.

To survive it’s has shorted the incubation cycle, altered its point of attack to avoid vaccines, become more infectious with kids & it’s only a couple of years in. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Feb 10
COVID Update: Denmark has effectively declared COVID over. There are merits and flaws to their thinking.

There’s also the simple matter of how the US is just not Denmark. 1/
Denmark is the first EU country to eliminate mask mandates, vaccine passports, isolation protocols & all the rest.

And it’s not because the COVID wave is over there. 2/
Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all rising in Denmark read all time highs with the US equivalent of 1000 daily deaths.

BA2 is on the rise in Denmark and is outcompeting the original Omicron.

Yet Denmark is leading the way to say its all over. 3/
Read 22 tweets
Feb 1
NEW: Pfizer files for approval of vaccines for kids 0-5.

There is more to this story and for people paying attention, I will add more info here soon. 1/
The last group of people to get approved for vaccinations also live under the most stringent rules, they have broad exposure & themselves can be highly infectious.

Leaving parents often with few good choices. 2/
In all likelihood only a small portion of the public will vaccinate their youngest kids.

For all the talk of politics driving vaccine decisions, it’s really age. 9 of 10 85 year olds are vaccinated & close to 9 in 10 10 year olds are not.3/
Read 15 tweets
Jan 27
COVID Update: One of the next big questions of the pandemic outlook will likely revolve around what happens in Florida.

And not just because the governor has been so out of step. 1/
At this point in the pandemic, there is a lot of room for multiple approaches on how to live and how much risk to take.

2 people can stare out the window, look at the same facts & see very different things based on their attitudes. 2/
We all know people who are comfortable dining indoors & others who aren’t. Same with going to a sporting event or getting on a plane.

Neither is wrong. All these choices are hard & the judgment calls reflect our own views of life & risk. 3/
Read 24 tweets
Jan 22
COVID Update: February 2022 would be a perfect time for a reset in our pandemic response to face whatever lies ahead m. 1/
A proper reset would include the best statement of the facts as we know them, clear messaging about what to expect, and a commitment of resources and initiatives to give all of us the tools we need. 2/
So what are the facts?

We have a wily, shape-shifting & unpredictable virus. It will continue to mutate.

We have a vaccine that if taken can prevent death in most people & boosters or antivirals for people who a vaccine won’t protect alone. 3/
Read 25 tweets

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