Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: One of the next big questions of the pandemic outlook will likely revolve around what happens in Florida.

And not just because the governor has been so out of step. 1/

At this point in the pandemic, there is a lot of room for multiple approaches on how to live and how much risk to take.

2 people can stare out the window, look at the same facts & see very different things based on their attitudes. 2/

We all know people who are comfortable dining indoors & others who aren’t. Same with going to a sporting event or getting on a plane.

Neither is wrong. All these choices are hard & the judgment calls reflect our own views of life & risk. 3/

Much comes down to our own circumstances & risk tolerance. But there’s a rub. And the run is why policymakers need to get involved.

If you don’t mind if you get COVID, no one else does. But put others at risk— including frontline HCWs— & it’s a different ballgame. 4/

Policies aren’t meant to prevent us from making bad decisions with our own lives. It’s to prevent us from being reckless with others.

If teachers or kids or nurses or factory workers have to show up to work, there should be reasonable steps to protect them. 5/

We can be judicious. The less deadly the less protection is needed. The more choices people have to protect themselves, the less protection is needed.

This leaves room for legitimate disagreement.

But no one ever promised we could have everything without some effort.6/

For example, if we want low risk in person learning for teachers & kids, decent filtration masks are a sensible policy during periods of high contagion.

Do we all love the idea? No. Is it better than distance learning? Yes. 7/

Others have different opinions. They may believe that masks are too big a burden for an illness that would be mild for their kids. They may believe it’s not their jobs to protect teachers & other families at an inconvenience to them.

8/

No matter how they would express it, these are views held by a lot of people.

In my view, our laws are here to make sure everyone has an opportunity for health & happiness.

But there is certainly room for respectful disagreement & judgments. 9/

Ron DeSantis hasn’t just weighed in on his view. He has eliminated even debate and local decision making. No one is permitted to require masks or even inquire about vaccinations.

But that’s just the irresponsible part, not the even more absurd parts. 10/

nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1…

As hard as it to be wrong, somehow DeSantis finds a way. With a plethora of scientific approaches that do work, he seems to promote only the solutions that don’t. 11/

He is also paying people NOT to get vaccinated, is firing people for promoting vaccines, allows his SG to go unmasked around cancer patients, & threatens anyone making a reasonable effort to keep schools or businesses safe. 12/

There’s sadly much more. But my point is that even acknowledging the room for all sorts of judgments, it’s remarkable that one person manages to still be so consistently wrong so often.

God forbid lives depended on his decision making. 13/

But the reason Florida will be interesting doesn’t just have to do with his policies or the culture wars he fights. It’s because the next signal of how the pandemic is heading will likely come from there. 14/

Each summer dating all the way back as far as 2020, Florida and several other southern states have experienced a wave of cases & hospitalizations. 15/

In a video from 2020, DeSantis crowed about how his approach to Florida of closing nothing— was better than the NE states.

Literally just before Florida’s wave.16/

nytimes.com/video/us/polit…

The next summer, in 2021, the lower vaccination levels in Florida were tested. A summer wave from Delta faced a state not willing to consider precautions.

Each an opportunity for humility not taken. Each an opportunity to double down on his approach. 17/

Neither of those waves were under DeSantis’s control to prevent. As most governors have learned by now— better to prepare for the worst & make balanced decisions the best you can if a wave arrives. 18/

The summer of 2022 in Florida will be interesting to watch for the presence of another summer wave. And because of Florida’s approach will be the first major real world sign of what level of protection we can expect from prior omicron infection. 19/

Most people are either vaccinated or have a prior omicron (and possibly delta) infection the thinking goes. And in a place with no public restrictions, we will see what that means as people are driven indoors out of the heat without masks. 20/

It would be the best possible news if Florida experiences minimal activity. It would bode well for the rest of the country & could make the case for dropping restrictions unless a new surprise arrives. 21/

It’s also possible that we see a wave with lots of cases but that prior omicron infection significantly reduces hospitalizations among the unvaccinated.

And it will be interesting to note how those with layered immunity— full vaccination + a’prior omicron infection— fare. 22/

And if we’re dealing with a new variant or a sub-variant of omicron, Florida will be one of the first places to show us how different combinations of layered immunity work— and which do not. 23/

This type of data will help all of us become more comfortable understanding the risks we face & the protection that can help us.

It could be a first signal of the path we are on.

We should watch Florida closely— though maybe not the press conferences./end