In case that you missed it, Treasury will be effectively shorting (i.e. selling) UST by $3000Bn for the next 5 months.
Fed will buy $400Bn.
The rest is on whom?
Fed will buy $400Bn.
The rest is on whom?
How much is $2600Bn?
That is China + Japan's UST holding times 120%. 😂
in 5 months...
either fireworks soon, or fireworks in early 2021 with a new Treasury secretary, or Fed caves in again.
That is China + Japan's UST holding times 120%. 😂
in 5 months...
either fireworks soon, or fireworks in early 2021 with a new Treasury secretary, or Fed caves in again.
typo: China + Japan times 110%
Ah. I made a newbie mistake in the table above. not sure what I was drinking last night.
The right column to use is the marketable borrowing. so that left $1049Bn (Aug/Sept) + $1216 (Q4) = $2265Bn net issuance for the next 5 months.
Most of the increase is likely Tbills.
The right column to use is the marketable borrowing. so that left $1049Bn (Aug/Sept) + $1216 (Q4) = $2265Bn net issuance for the next 5 months.
Most of the increase is likely Tbills.
The Fed is committed on $400Bn purchase. So that leaves $1865Bn for the market to digest in five months.
But we know Tbills are easier to digest than Tnotes/Tbonds.
But we know Tbills are easier to digest than Tnotes/Tbonds.
The Mnuchin/Pelosi compromise for HERO/HEAL act probably will add another $1000Bn to Q4 issuance, thus making the $3000Bn number last night somewhat correct after all.
