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pretty encouraging results from UToronto on COVID19 IgG/IgA antibody longevity.

Looks like 80% of the people including many 60+ can sustain high level of IgG 4 months after infection.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
And Saliva IgG, IgA testing should be as good as blood testing.
A word of caution needs to be said about the 20% of the people who did see their IgG decaying too much after 4 months.
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Barton
@Barton_options
One can never underestimate people's lack of imagination.

Why can't we re-organize our economy to crush COVID for 9 months?

Running old economy at 80%, and re-direct 20% of national resource for contact tracing, home schooling, PPE manufacturing etc.
20% of 9-month GDP = $3Tr (< than CARES + other stimulus bills)

20% of 155M employed people = 31 million jobs (current unemployment is 17million)
But no, the only option they are willing to accept is

1. Have no leadership
2. go back to 100% old economy & have millions of deaths.

(we literally need to reduce fatality rate of 65+ by more than 3x from current values to keep the final death toll below 1million in the US!)
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Barton
@Barton_options
In case that you missed it, Treasury will be effectively shorting (i.e. selling) UST by $3000Bn for the next 5 months.

Fed will buy $400Bn.

The rest is on whom?
How much is $2600Bn?

That is China + Japan's UST holding times 120%. 😂

in 5 months...

either fireworks soon, or fireworks in early 2021 with a new Treasury secretary, or Fed caves in again.
typo: China + Japan times 110%
Read 6 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
Blind (with no evidence from data) faith in T-cell immunity is pretty awful for people unlucky enough to be re-infected.

Expect no intervention and underreporting, except for cases bad enough to go through ER.
Why?

When people take long-lasting immunity for granted,

family & doctors/hospitals all tend to brush a patient with mild symptoms off and ration testing (since testing is backlogged in many cities), until symptoms are severe enough for an ER visit.
This strategy may work fine for a 20 yo, but having a 40 yo going through COVID twice, both times without treatment until oxygen saturation is low, is not going to be good for recovery.
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