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BɅRTON Profile picture
@Barton_options
Aug 4, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1/ NSA just intercepted this song that Mnuchin sent to JPow! tonight. 🤣🤣🤣 #sarcasm

Read the lyrics while watching this performance

2/ 🎶 Met you at DC, sixty.
Breaking the rules,
You were with me
Printing the green bill
Junk bonds in the pocket
24/7, we're never apart
3/ Saving the market, that spring
We didn't know, it will be the last time,
Something we had that we didn't admit
Is now the thing that I miss..
4/ Now we are printing alone, different schedules
One too many weeks apart
And after one too many,
I get crazy thoughts
5/ If we can't go back,
Can we run away?
Before the rest of world
Gets in the way
I am done given any thought to
Someone that's not loaded
'cos there is room in your BS for more …….
6/ We could crash and burn
It could be a mistake
But that's just the risk
I am willing to take
I am done being a millionaire
Time to be a trillionaire.
'cos there is room in your BS for more …….
🎵🎵🎵🎵

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More from @Barton_options

BɅRTON Profile picture
Mar 12, 2023
The new Bank Term Funding Program is likely to expand Fed's balance sheet by $100-200Bn in short order. This is effectively a one-shot QE program that will be wound down in one year.

This sudden injection of liquidity is likely to be very positive for stonks in the short term.
And its addition will make the trajectory of QT very interesting in the next few weeks. Most likely QT will continue, and the Fed could potentially continue to hike rates after the market stabilizes.
The next 3 months will be very interesting/volatile (unprecedented) in how Fed liquidity evolves over time.
Read 4 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023
Fed is going to meet on Monday 1130am to decide on any emergency measure on their discount window (emergency lending facility to commercial banks)
federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bo… Image
They probably need to do a little more than just tweaking the discount window, since $SIVB collapse is getting close to the scale of Bear Stearns, when it collapsed during the week of March 14 2008.

When BSC collapsed, it had $11Bn of equity supporting $395Bn in assets.
At the close on March 9th, $SIVB had $6.2Bn of equity (reduced to $2.3Bn at the open of March 10th) supporting $216Bn in assets, with total client funds at $341.5Bn. The leverage ratio was getting so bad that FDIC stepped in. Image
Read 5 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
Apr 9, 2022
Covid lockdown in Shanghai is going into its 5th week, but the case count is still climbing almost exponentially.

Chinese vaccines are working (icu admission and death numbers near 0), but it has also made early detection extremely hard.
Political rhetoric is starting to get in the way for the government to accurately identify and rectify what has NOT been working in this covid wave in Shanghai.

Lockdown is likely to continue for another 2-3 weeks.
Barring a miracle scenario in which omicron magically disappears in Shanghai, some major shift in chinese covid strategy could happen in the next 3 to 4 weeks.

But before that, we will see continued deteration in chinese domestic supply chain which will take months to sort out
Read 5 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
Apr 6, 2022
Some self-terminating QT coming.

1. a 3-month period to ramp up from 0 to $60Bn/m UST+$35Bn/m MBS. Image
2. monthly MBS roll-off will be less than $35Bn very soon. (only $38Bn when 30Y rate was still <5%) So we may never hit the MBS monthly cap any way. So a 2nd shoe will drop when the Fed releases the plan of MBS sales in Sept/Oct? Image
3. At a pace of $60Bn/m, QT should be tapering off around Q3 2023, when maturing UST starts to fall below the monthly cap.
Read 5 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
Sep 21, 2021
An example to illustrate the extent of real-estate overweighting for a typical Chinese city resident, and why Chinese government is trying to pull off a soft-landing for their property market:

some random 30yo in Shanghai whined about her "poor" life on Sept 5,2021.
The rough translation: her family owns 5 condos in Shanghai: 4 paid off, 1 with a mortgage. her parents live in 2, and 3 are rented out to pay for the mortgage. Her husband's family owns 3 condos in Shanghai, all paid off.

8 properties are worth ¥100MM in total
they live in 1 of her husband's properties. husband's parents live in another one and the third one is a rental property.

wife and husband are both the only child in their family. that's why she considers her parents' properties hers.
Read 10 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
Sep 20, 2021
1/ Evergrande "crisis": a controlled demolition of a toxic asset producer.

would there be contagion or not? probably not
2/ What is evergrande? It's a highly leveraged property developer, that also moonlights as a commercial bank (Shengjing Bank), a private equity firm running a bunch of fake buzzword companies, and a quasi-investment bank issuing wealth-management products.
3/ All the protests and headline problems that we heard last week is the default of its quasi-investment bank arm, whose liability is only *2%* of the overall liability of the conglomerate.

Some details and numbers are explained in this article:
bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/…
Read 28 tweets

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