CVC Group AG Profile picture
Aug 4, 2020 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
and its 98% short interest looking to #kodak some shorts here...big sloppy stock grants & high SI = #DecentLongThesis Image
This stock grant was an annual RSU grant, occurred two months ago, was not improper etc

It is excessive however at $5M and 2% of S/O for an annual grant IMHO

But...CEO IS highly motivated to BOTH turn around the company and pump the stock (RSUs are part perf-based)

Stock doubled for no reason back in April...shorts sitting in this thing are begging to get their cocks blown off, IMHO

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with CVC Group AG

CVC Group AG Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @CVCResearch

Feb 29
$SOUN has been on quite the tear lately but has anybody actually looked at this thing closely?

They grew revenue 19% y/y in Q323, but that included a 1x rev recc from a contract modification with a Korean customer (Hyundai probably). Absent this, revenue was down -29% y/y in Q3 Image
And $SOUN RPO has been steadily trending down since they came public. And we're supposed to believe this is a growth company? c'mon, be serious

Valuation is at 25x a CY24 revenue estimate that they won't hit. This is silly nonsense. Image
$SOUN missed on Q4 Revenue ($17.1M vs $17.7M) & EBITDA (-$3.7M vs -$0.6M expected) but introduces a new, even faker "backlog" methodology so they could pump that number, lol ok Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
I think $VMEO is a long here. Just posted a writeup to VIC, for those who have access:
valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/VIMEO_INC…
I tried out the product too 🤣
$VMEO launches new AI-powered video hub, Vimeo Central 👍

vimeo.com/solutions/vime…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 5
I have a loose thesis that aggressive buybacks can, and perhaps will, be the antidote that ails the China internet sector equities. I zero in on $BABA because they've already been putting their $20B+ in annual FCF to work by buying back ~$10B/yr over the last 2 years. Image
$BABA has been the most aggressive on buybacks, maybe they get more aggressive.

Hugely accretive here:
$71 stock
$30/sh cash & inv
$19/sh LT investments

$8+ T12 EPS (8x P/E)
$10+ T12 FCF/sh (4x EV/FCF)

Up the buyback from $10B->$20B-$25B/yr and the valuation will fix itself
$YUMC plans to double its buybacks y/y in CY24 from $613M to $1.25B.

Need to see a lot more of this in China. $BABA next, buyback $10B/yr->$20B ? 🤔 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19, 2022
Thread on why I'm adding more to my already large $UCTT position here based on the ~15% pullback this week and a number of positive updates out late last week.
First, $UCTT updated its Target Model last week for the first time in several years:
Two things on this update: 1) it was overdue as $UCTT was already exceeding the top end of the prior Target Model, 2) between higher revenue & margin assumptions in the update, the high end EBIT target was just raised by 167%!
Next, I now believe CY22 consensus numbers for $UCTT to be wildly low! Industry CY22 WFE growth expectations have moved up from HSD to low-mid teens over last few mths. On a calendarized basis, the street now has $LRCX & $AMAT growing top line ~10% & ~12%, respectively, in CY22.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 21, 2021
The new $AAPL MacBook Pros are the first to feature mini-LED display technology. Very relevant to $KLIC

theverge.com/2021/10/18/227…
Mini-LED technology is nascent, but growth projections are bonkers. $AAPL continuing to move forward with mLED adoption on schedule is a big deal. They first intro'd mLED in the iPad Pro in April '21.

theverge.com/2021/4/21/2239…
Those bonkers mini-LED growth projections? 86% Revenue CAGR projected for mini-LED through 2026! Gonna need a lot of tools for that! $KLIC

globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18, 2021
Couple things from the SEC report out today on $GME trading. First chart here shows buying by "traders identified as having a large short position in GME" in red vs total buying in blue. SEC essentially concluded that because the total buying in blue is so much larger than... 1/5 Image
buying by known shorts (in red) that the impact of short covering was relatively small (their language is below). I think this may be misguided bc 1) the largest spike in red buying coincided very well with the late January initial rip in $GME, and... 2/5 Image
2) because so much of overall trading volume is passive (heard numbers like 80%-90%), the "small fraction" that was short covering may very well have represented a much more meaningful fraction of active market buying. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(