So this Nobel-winning chemist has been "professionally opining" on as the "end of COVID," without actually recognizing basic facts about it. He has many many followers who use him to cite that COVID is overhyped etc ...
Here is why he is WRONG.
/1
Here is why he is WRONG.
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First, he plots the CDC excess mortality graphs as if they don't change. When they do. Lag is significant. This weeks update added +5580 to last weeks deaths, and almost 8500 deaths excess overall.
This *changes the shape of the graph*
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This *changes the shape of the graph*
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Second, as I tried to point out to this "authority figure" (despite not having any particular expertise in mortality or epidemiology), COVID is a contagious disease and mortality numbers returning to baseline do NOT mean that the disease is over. It will likely, resurface.
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And third, and perhaps most disappointingly obvious, is that *EXCESS MORTALITY* is not the only metric by which deaths should be judged. Excess mortality is a projection, and all deaths that are not excess are important too.
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Included in every "expected death" is every cancer, accident, suicide, homicide, etc. These are "expected." That the number doesn't change is NOT the goal.
In fact, public health is precisely about reducing **preventable**, not **excess** deaths.
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In fact, public health is precisely about reducing **preventable**, not **excess** deaths.
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**Excess** deaths are spillovers. They are not the yardstick. It's so disturbing to see non-public health scientists coldly and cruelly wield statistics they don't understand. @MLevitt_NP2013 is one such scientist, and yes, I'm calling him full out. Nobel prize or not.
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Deaths due to infectious diseases, whether or not they "exceed expected deaths", are still preventable, and the "excess death" argument is a cold, cruel, and heartless way to address a disease that has killed ~700k worldwide people.
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I have previously cited Mr. Levitt as an example of Nobel Syndrome, wherein a Nobel laureate (or scientist of repute) over-extends his (almost always a him!) scientific knowledge into fields, and verges into pseudoscience.
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I am, similarly, overextended. But I understand my limitations. My expertise in this area deals with my extensive knowledge of *public health mortality* as a suicidologist. Watching this scientific hack at mortality statistics makes my stomach turn.
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Please, Mr. Levitt. Cease and desist. People who know what they're doing are doing a better job than you, and you are providing AMMUNITION TO COVID DENIERS. Look at your following. It should make you sick to your stomach.
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I told this to Mr. Levitt when he retweeted me and "responded. I told him he was wrong and why.
Receipts below:
At this point, he knows what he's doing is wrong, and continues to do it.
/11
Receipts below:
At this point, he knows what he's doing is wrong, and continues to do it.
/11
By the way, his US projection is "170k deaths and it will be over by August 25th"
We're currently at 161,438 deaths in the US and the excess curve is EXPANDING in 2nd peak.
Scientific Buffoonery.
We're currently at 161,438 deaths in the US and the excess curve is EXPANDING in 2nd peak.
Scientific Buffoonery.
