How did the States’ economies perform in July? Recovery fragile and crucially linked to COVID-19 curves. @tulsipriya_rk
Power consmptn showed positive growth of 0.2% in second half of July for the first time since lockdown. Greatest YoY rise in RJ, TG, JH, BH, MH and CT.
Majority of cities with good air quality in fortnight ending 31 July compared to Pre lockdown levels. DL, OD, UP and RJ had satisfactory levels while Haryana had moderate air quality @tulsipriya_rk
Average ETC collections continued to improve YoY in second half of July- particularly in AS, JK,WB and OD
E-way bills also picked up in PB, RJ, UP, UT, TG & GJ @tulsipriya_rk
Growth in active cases slowed to 2.66% in fortnight ending 2nd August vs 4% in previous fortnight. Highest single day recoveries on 2nd Aug, DL and HR with recovery rates more than 80%. Death rate declined to 2.13% -GJ, MH, MP, DL, PU and WB reported higher than average CFR
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Crude Indian basket picked up marginally in October. Consumption of petroleum products improved both sequentially and YoY in Sept. diesel and petrol prices, however, declined marginally in Oct over Sept, gold imports decline in Sept while gold prices trade in narrow range
Current Private consumption sentiment remains mixed. While RBI’s current consumer consumer index dipped consistently, next year expectations improve; auto sales and vehicle registrations picked up strongly in Sept over Oct; digital transactions continued to surge.
Credit growth while improving sequentially, stays muted YoY. Business sentiment expectations for next year pick up.
India’s economic normalisation picking up, resilient recovery both on the domestic and external side in Sep and mid Oct. With the festive season round the corner, we enter a critical behavioral phase in the fight against the pandemic.
Latest India macro-update with @tulsipriya_rk
Growth in active cases consistent negative, recovery rate improving- BH,TN, WB,DL,GJ,AP. CFR declining. Healthy testing progress- particularly in Arunachal, Goa, DL, AS, JK, Tripura and TN. Testing now matches global averages with test positivity rate below WHO standard of 8%
Healthy growth in power consumption, ETC collections and inter and intra E way bills. Augurs well for improved GST collections in upcoming festive months.
India’s growth momentum picks up in September.
Check out our latest Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
E-Way bills and consequent GST collections alluding to steady recovery as economy unlocks amid headwinds of sustained virus spread and rising prices.
Rail freight clocking positive YoY growth for first time since March in August and early Sep, passenger earnings recovering, port cargo, domestic aviation traffic up- expected to pick up in upcoming festive months
Steel sector rebounding in August with power consumption growing at an encouraging 4.6 per cent YoY
What’s the macro-economic outlook for the second quarter of 2020 as India unlocks? Are we also unlocking behaviorally?
Check out our latest Macroeconomics of COVID-19 in India series with @tulsipriya_rk.
Q2 poised to return to economic normalcy.
Record Kharif sowing and healthy monsoon augurs well for robust kharif harvest and ensuing rural demand. Continuous MGNREGA employment boost critical for sustaining rural demand and dampening uncertainty and also in assisting migrant’s rural-urban migration mental decision making
Engines of industrial activity unlocking quickly. Services, having endured a disproportionate Covid impact, given their greater dependence on physical interaction and informality, may take relatively longer to return to baseline.
Did we witness an August welcome for Indian economic recovery in Q2 after unrivalled despondency in Q1?
Check out the latest edition of our Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
Industrial production, the growth engine, climbing up to recovery.
Agriculture- the persistent bright spot. Record kharif area sown, healthy live storage, sustained momentum in procurement and off-take operations by FCI and states @tulsipriya_rk
Strengthening prospects of rural demand-rising sales of commercial and Agri tractors, passenger vehicle sales grow to highest level in July since March, inching very, sales of small cars, two wheelers and SUVs pick up @tulsipriya_rk
Debilitating uncertainty effects of July lockdowns and monsoons leveled off recovery in first fortnight of August. Check out our latest edition of Macroeconomics of India Series with @tulsipriya_rk#macroIndiaupdate#EconTwitter
31 states have received normal or excess rainfall
Air quality index as on 14th August indicated further improvement in majority of cities compared to pre-COVID levels. @tulsipriya_rk
Healthy monsoons continued to boost Kharif sowing area and water reservoir levels in the fortnight gone by.