Crude Indian basket picked up marginally in October. Consumption of petroleum products improved both sequentially and YoY in Sept. diesel and petrol prices, however, declined marginally in Oct over Sept, gold imports decline in Sept while gold prices trade in narrow range Current Private consumption sentiment remains mixed. While RBI’s current consumer consumer index dipped consistently, next year expectations improve; auto sales and vehicle registrations picked up strongly in Sept over Oct; digital transactions continued to surge.

India’s economic normalisation picking up, resilient recovery both on the domestic and external side in Sep and mid Oct. With the festive season round the corner, we enter a critical behavioral phase in the fight against the pandemic.
Latest India macro-update with
@tulsipriya_rk Growth in active cases consistent negative, recovery rate improving- BH,TN, WB,DL,GJ,AP. CFR declining. Healthy testing progress- particularly in Arunachal, Goa, DL, AS, JK, Tripura and TN. Testing now matches global averages with test positivity rate below WHO standard of 8%

India’s growth momentum picks up in September.
Check out our latest Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
E-Way bills and consequent GST collections alluding to steady recovery as economy unlocks amid headwinds of sustained virus spread and rising prices. Rail freight clocking positive YoY growth for first time since March in August and early Sep, passenger earnings recovering, port cargo, domestic aviation traffic up- expected to pick up in upcoming festive months

What’s the macro-economic outlook for the second quarter of 2020 as India unlocks? Are we also unlocking behaviorally?
Check out our latest Macroeconomics of COVID-19 in India series with @tulsipriya_rk.
Q2 poised to return to economic normalcy. Record Kharif sowing and healthy monsoon augurs well for robust kharif harvest and ensuing rural demand. Continuous MGNREGA employment boost critical for sustaining rural demand and dampening uncertainty and also in assisting migrant’s rural-urban migration mental decision making

Did we witness an August welcome for Indian economic recovery in Q2 after unrivalled despondency in Q1?
Check out the latest edition of our Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
Industrial production, the growth engine, climbing up to recovery. Agriculture- the persistent bright spot. Record kharif area sown, healthy live storage, sustained momentum in procurement and off-take operations by FCI and states @tulsipriya_rk

Debilitating uncertainty effects of July lockdowns and monsoons leveled off recovery in first fortnight of August. Check out our latest edition of Macroeconomics of India Series with @tulsipriya_rk #macroIndiaupdate #EconTwitter
31 states have received normal or excess rainfall Air quality index as on 14th August indicated further improvement in majority of cities compared to pre-COVID levels. @tulsipriya_rk

How did the States’ economies perform in July? Recovery fragile and crucially linked to COVID-19 curves. @tulsipriya_rk
Power consmptn showed positive growth of 0.2% in second half of July for the first time since lockdown. Greatest YoY rise in RJ, TG, JH, BH, MH and CT. Majority of cities with good air quality in fortnight ending 31 July compared to Pre lockdown levels. DL, OD, UP and RJ had satisfactory levels while Haryana had moderate air quality @tulsipriya_rk

Oscillating economic recovery in July in the midst of state lockdowns and monsoons. Check out our latest edition of Macroeconomics of India Series with @tulsipriya_rk #macroIndiaupdate #EconTwitter
Real activity upswing in latest fortnight after plateauing in first half of July Agricultural prospects strengthened with healthy monsoon and reservoir levels. States receive normal or excess rainfall as on 2nd Aug. Strong and broad-based kharif sowing growth in latest fortnight @tulsipriya_rk

Was the fortnight of Indian monsoons a harbinger of hope for the Indian economy? Check out our latest edition of Macroeconomics of India Series with @tulsipriya_rk #macroIndiaupdate #EconTwitter
Tentative real activity stabilisation amid re-emerging state lockdowns and monsoons Indian recovery= States recovery Power consumption drops amid monsoon and re-imposition of lockdowns in TN, KA, JH, AS, WB and MZ @tulsipriya_rk

Six months into a chaotic whirlwind called 2020~ reflection of India’s macrovitals and cues for future trajectory
Check out our new edition of Macroeconomics of Covid in India series with @tulsipriya_rk #EconTwitter #macroIndiaupdate
Real activity inching to preCovid levels. How are the economies of states recovering?
YoY contraction in power consumption relatively eased since mid-June across most states including Covid hotspots like DL, MH, WB and UP. JH, SKM, TLG and RJ showed greatest improvement in the fortnight ending 5th July. @tulsipriya_rk

Fourth edition of our Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
#EconTwitter
Having entered the ‘Unlock’ phase from June 1 with gradual resumption of services and businesses, some early signs of economic revival are visible in the first three weeks of June. 2/n Compared to pre-COVID scenario, electronic toll collections have shown marked improvement WoW mid-May onwards across all states. Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand reported greatest pick up in third week of June compared to Feb levels. @tulsipriya_rk

Third edition of our Macroeconomics of COVID in India weekly series with @tulsipriya_rk
#EconTwitter
Macro of Covid needs an unusual federal perspective since our urban areas( growth engines) are Covid hotspots. What may be hotspots of economic recovery amid reverse migration? Prior to COVId, power consumptn of majority states was healthy. Moderate improvement from May to June relative to 2019 across all states including COVID hotspots. In second week of June, BHR, JH, SKM and NL show greatest improvement, DNH sharpest YoY contraction @tulsipriya_rk

Second edition of our Macroeconomics of COVID in India weekly series with @tulsipriya_rk
#EconTwitter
COVID cases continue to rise, growth rate in active cases rising to 4.6% on 7th June from 2.6% a week ago. Recovery rate remained steady at 48.1%. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
India's workplace mobility continued to rise relatively faster as compared to other countries, picking up since 3rd May. Mobility levels for non-essential activity still remained low at 70% below baseline.

COVID-19 is an unparalleled economic crisis in modern history. My colleague @tulsipriya_rk and I have been tracking the macroeconomic effects of it on India’s economy on a weekly basis. Sharing some of the visualisations here in this thread.
#MacroOfCovidIndia Globally, India’s workplace mobility rising relatively faster from a low base since Lockdown 3.0. Mobility levels to retail and recreation still 70% below baseline. #MacroOfCovidIndia @tulsipriya_rk