Thread by @TJ_Hedin

New @CAPolicyLab Report:
Me, @TillvonWachter, @alexbellecon & Geoff Schnorr break down the rise in "Initial" Unemployment Insurance Claims (and much more)
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The recent growth in Initial Claims has largely been driven by an increasing number of additional claims —claims which are reopened after a claimant’s temporary return to work.
The number of truly *new* initial claimants has been flat since May — but at historically high levels

These "additional" claimants, who are experiencing *another* layoff, are different than new initial claimants.

We show that relative to the group of new claimants, additional claimants are more likely to be women, younger workers, and in Food Services

We're now able to count the number of *unique* claimants since the start of the crisis - more accurate than tallying initial claims, which double-counts many individuals.

1/3 of California's Labor Force has filed a claim since mid-March.

DOL reports "Continued Claims", which is the # of people certifying for benefits each week, but not necessarily the number of people who actually get paid. Our data can count payments + we count by the week of unemployment, instead of certification, which can occur much later

The expiration of the $600 FPUC benefits means 1/2 of all individuals receiving UI benefits would have received payments below the Poverty Line. We're able to analyze Weekly Benefit Amounts by Demographic groups - with and w/o FPUC

When additional claimants re-open their claims, they don't provide new info about their recall expectations- it is pulled from the original filing. Since most add'l claimants filed early in crisis, when recall was high, adjusting for this shows a steeper decline in expectations

Check out the full report & earlier analyses here:
capolicylab.org/california-une…

cc: @margotroosevelt @bencasselman @arindube @JustinWolfers @BetseyStevenson @ModeledBehavior @ENPancotti @josheidelson @paulgp @kevinrinz @jimtankersley @p_ganong @KateDavidson #EconTwitter