Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #econtwitter

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Offer: public investments occur where profit is not possible, and usually have long break-even horizons. Private finance requires certainty. #oxeshfacseminar #econhist #twitterstorians #econtwitter
Example 1: the UK’s private finance initiatives (PFI). Was this corrupt? It was intended to take debt off the government balance sheet. The projects haven’t been assessed for value-for-money. #oxeshfacseminar #econhist #twitterstorians #econtwitter
Read 30 tweets
Based on the #AEAClimateReport, @AEASPmsu alum @itsafronomics and I wrote about issues facing Black women in economics and current & potential efforts to address them (nyti.ms/2oGMYxm). Hope all will read the op-ed & climate study: aeaweb.org/resources/memb…. 1/N
@AEASPmsu @itsafronomics For context, African Americans receive a smaller share of economics degrees than STEM degrees at every level. For 2017,

Economics
BA: 5.3%
MA: 5.6%
PhD: 3.2%

STEM
BA: 6.5%
MA: 7.8%
PhD: 4.3%

The full 2018 @AEACSMGEP report is here: aeaweb.org/content/file?i…. 2/N
@AEASPmsu @itsafronomics @AEACSMGEP Black representation in economics has declined since 1995, going from 6.4% of all economics degrees to
to 5.3% in 2017. (2018 @AEACSMGEP Report) 3/N
Read 29 tweets
In funding many research projects, I've often advised researchers to be sure to correct for multiple comparisons.

But I'm having second thoughts. Interested in reactions from #econtwitter and stats folks.
The goal is to penalize p-hacking wherein researchers compare lots of outcomes, subgroups, etc. The method is to penalize the p-value metric (Bonferroni, Holm, Westfall-Young, Benjamini-Hochberg, etc., all work by lowering p-values in some way).
But maybe it's better to do:
Read 19 tweets
#EconTwitter Anyone coming to the end of their PhD and about to go on the job market but feel they would benefit from a bit more time for research without the pressures of a tenure clock and heavy teaching and admin duties? Read on...
@NuffieldCollege and the Econ dept @UniofOxford have 3-year post-docs which offer early career researchers the opportunity to develop their research portfolio within a leading Economics department and strengthen their future position in the academic job market.
Responsibilities: 1. Research with a view to publication in leading journals; 2. Developing & managing a research programme independently; 3. Teaching up to 20 hours of lectures or 30 hours of TA-format teaching per annum; light admin of teaching/research, & organising seminars.
Read 4 tweets
Economic Inquiry has just accepted my article with @PhilWMagness on income inequality in the United States before the 1940s. We show that the IRS data is of very poor quality and overstates the actual level of inequality #econhist #econtwitter

LINK: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
We point out that the IRS income data relied on self-reporting in an era of rapidly changing rates and (at high levels) with lax enforcement. This makes the errors of estimation unstable and the levels inaccurate.
So we used state-level income tax systems that were differently enforced than the IRS (Wisconsin, Delaware, North Carolina, Utah and Minnesota with the 1st two being the most important) to compare IRS-level estimates of inequality.
Read 12 tweets
So excited for @sherrirose long-awaited workshop on computational health economics & outcomes. @UCSF_Epibiostat #epitwitter
She leads by calling for value of interdisciplinary research. Need both strong theory & practical/relevant for practice. Sometimes theoretical ideal and practicability are in conflict. Callout for articles on methods grounded in real problems for journal @biostatistics.
@biostatistics Computational health economics (#econtwitter): how can we affect policy?
Data first, methods second. Usefulness of electronic health database is a new resource, but usefulness for research really varies (fancy stats doesn't solve major data problems)
Read 28 tweets
Short, summary thread on the interesting #econtwitter conversation on macro models with heterogeneous agents that I read in these days.

ICYMI, here’s @ben_moll one-slide summary of lit on HANK models:

Read also @SorryToBeKurt’s reply thread. 1/6
Read 11 tweets
Economic Naturalist Question #21. Why do freshly cooked rotisserie chickens sell for roughly only half as much as uncooked fresh chickens?
#econtwitter
In an earlier thread, I explored why introductory economics courses appear to leave little lasting imprint on the millions of students who take them each year:
Students learn more effectively when they pose interesting questions based on personal experience, and then use basic economic principles to help answer them. This exercise became what I call my “economic naturalist” writing assignment.
Read 10 tweets
A clever test of ideological bias among economists.

@JavdaniMohsen and Ha-Joon Chang ask economists whether they agree or not with quotes (mis-)attributed to more or less mainstream or heterodox figures.

Blog: ineteconomics.org/perspectives/b…

Paper: researchgate.net/publication/33…
@JavdaniMohsen If I read correctly... economists are less likely to agree with Adam Smith if his words are attributed to Marx. (No surprise.)
@JavdaniMohsen We're more likely to agree with a statement by Keynes if it’s attributed to Kenneth Arrow. (Yikes!)
Read 10 tweets
It’s time for some #cartoonepi & #epiquiz fun!

Today, let’s talk about Difference-in-Difference analyses and how to use them to estimate the impact of policy changes!

Our example paper is from our May issue by @DrRitaHamad & colleagues.

#epiellie
I love this paper by @DrRitaHamad which tries to answer the question: did updating the allowed contents of the WIC package to include healthier options actually impact diet & nutrition during pregnancy?

Link👇🏼academic.oup.com/aje/article-ab…
First, some background for those of you not familiar with the WIC program.

WIC stands for “Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children”, and provides vouchers for specific food combos (‘packets’) for low-income pregnant women & kids <5yo in the US.
Read 22 tweets
1/ Alright folks, this will be the last round of #EconBookClub, discussing Guido Imbens' new paper on PO vs. DAGs (link: arxiv.org/abs/1907.07271). #EconTwitter #BookofWhy #Econometrics #Causality #CausalInference #MachineLearning #AI
2/ Today I will go through the final chapter 4.6 and the paper's conclusion. Maybe you will notice that I skipped over section 4.5. I had some thoughts on this chapter, but I feel that I didn't understand Guido's point well enough. So I prefer to leave it aside for the moment.
3/ In chapter 4.6, Guido discusses the returns to education example, which is a classic question in economics and which is also closely connected with the development of PO techniques in econometrics.
Read 19 tweets
2/ In this chapter, Guido responds to the main criticism that is brought forward towards the potential outcomes framework by proponents of DAGs – the choice of covariates or how to justify ignorability.
3/ We're all familiar with the ignorability / unconfoundedness assumption that underlies classical matching estimators, for example. The corresponding DAG is depcited in Figure 8a of the paper.
Read 17 tweets
#EconTwitter Important question of broad interest: What should potential econ PhD applicants make of the info that depression is high among grad students, and worries about whether this will be a path that ends up being fulfilling to them?

#EconAdvice
A few thoughts, but looking forward to hearing from others:

1) Don't do an econ PhD for the title. It's too long and intense for that. Do it only if you are interested in doing research and see the PhD process itself as a job that you might enjoy.
2) Many experience 1sr year (i.e. 8 months) as the worst, but then with field classes and research it gets closer to what you enjoy. Once in, dont quit because you don't enjoy the first year, that is not at all representative of how the rest will be.
Read 13 tweets
Next at #AEAsmpc!
@Marietmora introduces a panel on the PhD job market, with Waldo Ojeda, @MackenzieAlsto4, and @BreyonWilliams.
Right now, create an account for the AEA online system. Set up a spreadsheet to keep track of jobs. You can share this w other JM candidates in your dept! Set up a website where people can access your materials - be careful about access issues (e.g. Google, Dropbox) for docs.
Keep track of who you know at each school so you can reach out to them when you apply.
Read 42 tweets
Because #econtwitter is a dynamic community constantly flux, and bc the medium doesn’t store well, or simply new people face their “unknown unknowns”, I think it’s important to repeat big things. So I’d like to restate something for new assistant professors. 1/n
You want to get tenured somewhere. We all can find the requirements for that as its field and Dept specific. So obviously, you find that out ASAP. But there is another component that many new AP don’t know, either bc they aren’t mentored well, or they just didn’t hear it 2/n
And that is that when you go up for tenure, you will need letters from 3-10 depending on your department. So using backwards induction, what you need is people writing you letters who know who you are at minimum. 3/n
Read 11 tweets
I'm very much looking forward to read Imben's new piece on PO and DAGs. Inspired by @EpiEllie's #EpiBookClub, I'd like to start something similar to delve deeper into the individual sections of the paper. So let's start #EconBookClub! #BookofWhy 1/
2/ After having read the introduction, it's very cool to see that Guido apparently had a change of mind with respect to the usefulness of DAGs. Compare this passage of the paper with his 2014 paper published in Statistical Science: projecteuclid.org/download/pdfvi…
3/ It's not exactly clear what Guido's personal stance is, but there's certainly a change in tone here. That's great, because it means that the paper could be a real starting point for having an objective discussion about how DAGs can add to our econometric toolbox.
Read 20 tweets
Happy 4th of July!!
One area of intergration of ML and econometrics is providing inference after variable selection (Post selection Inference) #rstats #econtwitter #Rladies #ML #econometrics 1/n
Most popular technique in economics is the 'Double LASSO' which provides inference on the treatment effect after variable selection using LASSO. Check out the R package 'hdm'. cran.r-project.org/web/packages/h…
#rstats #econtwitter 2/n
We are often interested in conducting inference on other selected covariates (controls) as well. Check out R package 'selectiveInference' which conducts inference on multiple covariates. cran.r-project.org/web/packages/s…
#rstats #econtwitter 3/n
Read 5 tweets
First up: The LASSO family

Perhaps the most popular ML technique in economics is LASSO - a variable selection technique. The R package 'glmnet' gives users a range of distributions of the response variable to choose from: normal, binomial, poisson, multinomial,cox and others!
Interaction terms in the model are common in econ (& other soc. sciences). Want to select interactions along with the main effects? R package 'hierNet' implements Hierarchical LASSO. Users can choose the kind of hierarchy condition based on the research Q!
In grouped data, we might want to select variables from among groups as well as within group level. Check out Sparse-Group LASSO using R package 'SGL'.
Read 6 tweets
Clarida não é vice-presidente do Fed, é? Querem um thread sobre o Fed?
Federal Reserve System. ou Fed para os iniciados, é objeto de estudo tanto acadêmico quanto pelos Fed watchers do mercado. Thread será ilustrada com papers e livros de história e política monetária.
Spoiler: Se um americano chama o Clarida de Mr Vice President (of the Federal Reserve Bank) pegaria mal.
Read 33 tweets
It's official, the Review of Economic Studies does not accept comment papers (unless they point out actual factual errors), according to my correspondence with an editor. In important ways, it's not really an academic journal. @RevEconStud #EconTwitter #EconReplicationCrisis
This isn't hard. If the RESTud doesn't accept comment papers, then people who do publish there now have an incentive to sneak papers past the referees which are obviously flawed. And people don't have incentive to replicate papers, since they cannot be published. #EconTwitter
It's no mystery why the editorial board refuses to accept comment papers. The benefit of being an editor is not the pride one takes in leaving one's intellectual stamp on the field, but rather the benefit one gets from giving favors to powerful people in the field. #Econtwitter
Read 21 tweets
I'd like to give some advice about presentation slides. I'm not as experienced as some of us on #EconTwitter in the conference and seminar circuits, but I've been doing this for more than a decade now, so I've been around.
I'm at the Canadian Economic Association (@CanEconomics) annual conference in @banffcentre hosted by @EconCalgary. The beauty of this national park (@BanffNP) is marred by some of the slides I've seen thus far. Sorry! ✌️🏽 But I'd like to help. #CEA2019 #ACEA2019 #CEA19 #ACEA19
Here are some random suggestions (in no particular order). Most relate to the Beamer document class in LaTeX. So far, I only saw one person who didn't use Beamer, anyway.
Read 20 tweets
Dear candidates for AEA elected office (@kearney_melissa, @drlisadcook, @OS_Mitchell, @MattGentzkow et al):

I'd like to instigate a series of candidate forums so that you might inform #econtwitter where you stand on important issues.

I will reach out to those not on @twitter.
While welcoming suggestions for important topics, and recognizing that inclusivity, gender, and race belong among them. I'd like to start with the state of publishing in the discipline.

Some basic stylized facts to start the discussion:
It's well documented that the submission-to-acceptance lag in the AER and other top journals has risen dramatically over the past 50 years. More than 1,000% in the case of the AER - from 8 weeks in 1981, when manuscripts were sent to reviewers by snail mail, to over 2 years.
Read 11 tweets
Rank-and-file economists don't know it yet, but the next president-elect of the American Economic Association has been selected.

Or at least the only individual whose name will be printed on the ballot has been selected.

Here's the story, #econtwitter...
AEA by-laws charge a nominating committee with presenting 2+ candidates for president-elect to the Executive Committee no later than April 30th. The 2 committees then hold what resembles a papal conclave, trading the Sistine Chapel for a meeting room at the Hyatt Regency O'Hare.
In about a year, the minutes of that meeting will be published in the AER.

We can tell the meeting has happened thanks to this week's press release on association award recipients. Those decisions are made at the same meeting.
aeaweb.org/news/press-rel…
Read 9 tweets
So, I've decided to call my psuedo-blog on #EconTwitter about random econometric factoids "How the Sausage is Made". It will be me sharing (hopefully correct) tidbits that I think most applied types are unaware and may be of use. A bit of insight into "how the sausage"
is made without getting bogging down in all the metricy (h/t to @agoodmanbacon for using that term the other day) details. Today I'm getting into the weeds a bit about how "finicky" (as I describe it) the IV estimator is. Before describing some of the downside to IV, I think it
is worth saying that I think IV gets a very bad wrap. It's a great solution to a very common problem ... under the right assumptions. If those assumptions hold, don't be ashamed to use it. Clearly, that's a big "if" and, as they say, therein lies the rub.
Read 12 tweets

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