Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #econtwitter

Most recents (24)

Recruiting season for econ+finance PhDs has begun. You should have a website, but not just any website. Here are some slides that I made for my students -- dropbox.com/s/ztu32remz1hi… -- that job market candidates may find useful. What follows is a thread summary. #econtwitter. 1/N
Who is your audience? IMO your job market website is for one audience: the recruiting committee. Doesn't matter if you are aiming for industry, government, or academia. Keep this in mind when building or changing your site. 2/N
How do they use your site? Common setting = recruiting meeting:
A: "Where is the candidate's CV?"
B: "Crap, it's not on my computer. I'll google it...Found their site. Wait, Chrome says this is a dangerous file..."

Simply, make your site Googleable and easy to use. 2/N
Read 9 tweets
#EconTwitter: we need your help. We're doing a research project on online ratings. We're interested in how people interpret them.

For this, we have set up a very short survey, which we are currently piloting (just to make sure it all makes sense). 1/4
It would be absolutely fantastic if many of you could take a couple of minutes and answer our 4 short questions. 2/4
Here is the link to the survey: forms.gle/6FkSXctBQ61sJv…. Please make sure to hit submit in the end. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
#China's August urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.3%[Est. 5.4%;Prev. 5.4%]
Jan-Aug urban fixed investment +5.8% y/y [Est.+5.5%;Prev.+5.7%]
Aug industrial value-added +4.2% y/y [Est.+3.8%;Prev.+3.8%]
Aug retail sales +5.4% y/y [Est.+3.5%;Prev.+2.7%]
1/n #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
China produced 5.74 million tons of non-ferrous metal in August, which rose by 6.7%, the most since January 2021.
Jan-Aug non-ferrous metal productions +1.9% to 44 million tons.
2/ #China #copper #aluminum
In Aug, #China's total retail sales were recorded at 3.6258 trillion yuan, up 5.4% y/y but dropped 0.05% m/m.
Among them, retail sales of goods were 3.25 trillion yuan, which rose by 5.1% y/y; The total revenue for the catering industry was 374.8 billion yuan, surged 8.4% y/y.
3/
Read 6 tweets
1/ Do you remember the Spotify boycott in January and headlines like this in the media?

Did you wonder what happened to the actual Spotify revenues and subscriber numbers?👇

cc @tuchmanna @zhu_xinrong

#EconTwitter #MarketingTwitter Image
2/ We looked into Spotify’s subscriber and revenue numbers in the US and found a null boycott effect: Spotify’s subscribers continued to grow at a rate statistically indistinguishable from the pre-controversy trend. Image
3/ We discuss similarities and differences between the Goya and Spotify boycotts and important future directions of research in the political consumerism domain in this rejoinder: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 6 tweets
JUST IN:
China August trade balance(in USD term) $79.39 bln; Est. $92.40 bln, Prev. $101.26 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +1.20%, Prev.+2.3%;
#Exports +7.1% y/y ; Est. +13.0%, Prev.+18.0%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
JUST IN:
#China August Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +535.91 bln yuan, Prev.+682.69 bln yuan.
Imports +4.6% y/y, Est. +6.3%, Prev.+7.4%.
Exports +11.8% y/y, Est. +18.5%, Prev.+23.9%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
CHINA JAN.-AUG.IMPORTS RISE 5.2% Y/Y, EXPORTS +14.2%, TRADE SURPLUS 3.66 TRILLION YUAN.-CUSTOMS
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Read 6 tweets
New @nberpubs working paper out today:

"Race and Redistribution in the United States: An Experimental Analysis"

nber.org/papers/w30426

with @jesper_akesson, Bob Hahn, & Itzhak Rasooly

#econtwitter
Motivation: Many observational studies suggest that people's (incorrect) beliefs about welfare recipients being disproportionately Black limit their support for related spending.

In our paper, we test this hypothesis using the tools of randomized inference.
We conduct 2 large survey field experiments, randomly providing ppl with different (but accurate) slices of info about the racial composition of welfare recipients.

With this exogenous variation in beliefs, we then measure individuals’ incentive-compatible support for welfare.
Read 8 tweets
Kicking off the 3rd @CReAM_Research & @RWI_Leibniz_en Workshop on the Economics of Migration, organized by @j_bredtmann and @s_otten21, that is taking place today and tomorrow in Essen 🇩🇪!

Here is a 🧵 with all presentations:

#CReAM_RWI_22 #econtwitter
Can #immigration strengthen the monopsony power of firms? Yes, if immigrants have low reservation wages. We are thrilled to begin #Cream_RWI_22 with Jan Stuhler's @EconomicsUc3m talk on 1990s #immigration shocks in🇩🇪 and #monopsony relying on admin data #Cream_RWI_22 #econtwitter
@CVar_Sil is discussing the results of an experiment to assess Colombian's policy preferences to the inflow of 🇻🇪#migrants. They find that natives that view the crisis as an economic issue are more likely to support health access restrictive policies #Cream_RWI_22 #econtwitter
Read 16 tweets
Did slavery facilitate Europe's early rise to riches? Steve Redding @ReddingEcon, Stephan Heblich, and I focus on the single biggest slave-trading nation, Britain, and revisit the famous "Williams hypothesis". We combine theory and geographically disaggregated data to show Image
that areas with more slavery wealth were less agricultural, had more cotton mills, adopted more steam engines, had higher per capita wealth, and employed more people in manufacturing. We use weather shocks to slave traders wealth to document an exogenous link running from slave
trading to slave holding in 1833, when slavery was officially abolished. Using data from the compensation committee, we document that areas with plausibly exogenous more slave wealth developed faster; we make sense of this pattern in a geographically disaggregated dynamic factor
Read 6 tweets
#econtwitter is bad because it insanely overrepresents very progressive, always online, Anglophone, applied micro folks, who journos and political staff listen to because they are so available. With student loans today, the problem of this bias is super clear.
The interest pause in 21/22 and the forgiveness cost the same as *10 years" of a fully funded Canadian style parental leave policy in the US. Is there any person of any politics in America who prefers the student loan policy to this?
A white shoe lawyer three years in with a stay at home spouse will get, including the interest pause, 20-40k. Two first year lawyers at median get 40-80k! On equity, efficiency and dynamic incentives it is a joke.
Read 7 tweets
How to reduce CO2 emissions effectively? We have a new paper in @NatureEnergyJnl detecting a-priori unknown policy interventions using machine learning. We find 10 policies in EU countries that reduced emissions 8-26%. @MoritzPSchwarz
#Econtwitter nature.com/articles/s4156…
Rather than asking if a particular policy works, we look at reverse-causal question – can we find emission reductions and attribute them to policies? We detect changes in emissions as structural breaks in two-way fixed effects panels as a-priori unknown treatment effects. Image
What we find: over 31 European countries and 345 potential opportunities for change we found 10 large policy interventions reducing emissions. These mainly involved carbon pricing and reduced emissions 8% to 26%. Image
Read 5 tweets
Damit hätte es sich um eine Beihilfe gehandelt. Diese wiederum hätte – ebenso wie die Mehrwertsteuerausnahme auf die Umlage – von der Kommission genehmigt werden müssen. Deswegen wurde diese Option nicht gewählt. 26/n
Die Preisanreize zum Gassparen werden durch die Senkung der Mehrwertsteuer nun gemindert. Die Erhöhung durch die Umlage wird abgeschwächt, und ab einem bestimmten Preis sogar in ihr Gegenteil verkehrt. 27/n
Das liegt daran, dass die Umlage eine absolute Höhe hat die Mehrwertsteuersenkung sich aber am Preis orientiert. Wer heute noch einen billigen Preis von 7 Cent/kwh zahlt wird durch den gemeinsamen Effekt der Reform künftig 8,88 Cent zahlen. 28/n
Read 17 tweets
New paper on pandemic UI!

TLDR expanded benefits had large spending & small job-finding impacts

Implications
1) Unemployed hhs have high MPCs *even* though also have high liquidity. Inconsistent with rep agent model
2) Temporary benefits promising tool for future recessions
New paper with @Dan_M_Sullivan @pascaljnoel @JoeVavra using #JPMCInstitute data

Reduced-form findings similar to prior drafts so I’ll focus here on what’s new which is that we organize the results into three lessons
Lesson 1: Benefit supplements are important for explaining the dynamics of spending, but *not* the dynamics of employment.
Read 13 tweets
Zunächst einmal freue ich mich ja ueber die (wenn auch kritische) Erwähnung neben dem großartigen @CarloMasala1 im neuen @neuezwanziger Podcast von @SchmittJunior und @friiyo
Dennoch etwas dazu: Ist es wirklich genau so schlimm (so wird insinuiert), jetzt zT Gas aus Aserbaidschan zu beziehen wie aus Russland? Verschiedene Punkte: 1) Es ist nicht schön, das ist klar. Auch Katar und Ägypten sind problematisch.
Es waere natuerlich besser, ganz ohne Gas aus Diktaturen auszukommen. ZB auch selber foerdern. Wenn das aber nicht geht, halte ich es fuer besser als das Gas aus Russland. Erstens geht es darum, Klumpenrisiken zu vermeiden. Dazu ist es sinnvoll, wenn man schon mit Bad Boys
Read 18 tweets
#EconTwitter: this is really useful advice by Neale Mahoney for those who want to write an applied economics paper 📝

just came out in JEP

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…

In the following mini 🧵 I summarize his 5 ✅ principles
The 5 principles are:
✅ show your variation with descriptive analysis
✅ use the descriptive evidence to provide preliminary evidence
✅ use the descriptive analysis to guide choices of what you model (and not model)
✅ clearly articulate the value added of the model and …
✅ choose parameters of interest and counterfactuals that are informed by your variation
Read 7 tweets
Why do we typically measure economic well-being with GDP, rather than national wealth?

It seems like GDP has a number of crucial problems which cause it to measure something other than what we intuitively care about.
1. GDP measures how much money changes hands, instead of how much value is created.

If a supply shock reduces the supply of a good by half, but drives up the price of the good by more than 2x, this is counted as a higher GDP than baseline, even though _less_ wealth was created.
Similarly, if a natural disaster destroys an area, and money is spent rebuilding, that is counted toward GDP.

Which is straightforward application of the broken window fallacy?!
Read 14 tweets
It's almost Back to School time & we're still seeing about 100k cases a day here in the US.

How do we stop COVID from going back to school too?

Our new pre-print confirms face masks must be part of our plan!

Let me explain /🧵

medrxiv.org/cgi/content/sh…
"What did we study?"

Halfway through the 2021/22 school year, some Massachusetts school districts dropped their mask requirements. This created a natural experiment.

We estimated: The causal effect of removing mask mandates in those districts on COVID levels
"What did we find?"

School districts which removed mask policies had an immediate increase in COVID cases in both students and staff.

This increase in cases got bigger over the next 10 weeks. Figure 3 from the linked pre-print showing COVID cases compa
Read 19 tweets
I always wanted to create illustrations for my research papers, but I have no artistic skills whatsoever. Thanks to @OpenAI, that’s no longer a problem.

I had a blast creating with DALLE, and I encourage you to try it too.

My favorite creations below 👇

#EconTwitter
The paper “What’s My Employee Worth?” (with @zoebcullen and @ShengwuLi) is about how employers figure out the right salaries for their employees.

I asked DALLE for “a weight with a businesswoman on the left plate and cash on the right plate.”
The paper “Partisan Interactions” is about how Republicans and Democrats exert social pressure on each other.

I wanted to be a bit more abstract here, so I asked DALLE for “a red person inside a herd of blue people.”
Read 8 tweets
One confusing thing about #econtwitter is there are always two valid debates happening simultaneously that often bleed into each other. But once you realize they're different it's a lot easier.

One is a more political debate and the other is a more economic one.
From the Democratic side of the political debate today's jobs number was 100% great news. It will probably help in the midterm elections etc.

From the economic perspective the jobs number was more mixed. Could make a credible great economic news case but more debatable.
We'll see the same w/ next week's CPI. The headline will be low because of falling gas price. That matters to rebut silly GOP arguments about rising gas prices. It does matter for the midterm elections. And it matters for well being. People *should* make all those points.
Read 5 tweets
The paper that I am proudest of is finally out with open access!🎉 Please spread widely! link.springer.com/article/10.100…
I’d like to thank my (twitterless) co-author and dear friend Güneş Gökmen from @EconomicsLund for this long but fun journey. Thanks to @lunduniversity for the open-access funding. Below is a long 🧵 #EconTwitter
1/One big lesson we have learned from the huge literature on long-term persistence is that history matters for current outcomes more than we initially thought and in ways that are not so trivial.

Our paper is about how demographic history shapes long-term development.
Read 24 tweets
🚨FOMC preview ...🧵

Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Fed will be data driven.

Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
📉Desired demand reduction is visible.

Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.

JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
Read 4 tweets
Can't believe this paper is finally out!😍 It has been six years in the works - almost spanning my entire career😅 Phew.

What did we do? Why did it take so long? And is it worth the read? 🙏A personal (long) thread below👇🧵 1/10
So - it all began six years ago when I sat in Gabriels office at Berkeley.

I was showing him some mind boggling data on tax enforcement in Denmark that me and @TTorslov had stumpled upon (we ended up writing another paper on that topic - but that's another story..) 2/10
Gabriel asked me: How much tax revenue does Denmark actually lose to tax havens?

That simple question was very difficult to answer based on the existing body of research (incl. my own earlier work). 3/10
Read 13 tweets
#EconTwitter:
I wish I had seen this one-pager 📄 on how to write excellent papers while I was doing my Ph.D.: scholar.harvard.edu/files/shapiro/…
Jesse Shapiro suggests doing this in 4 steps.
Here is a summary. 🧵
Step 1:
dream up a somewhat realistic introduction with a description of results and so on
if it does not excite you, abandon the project (very! important advice)
Step 2:
do the research
start with whatever is least clear to you
use the introduction as your compass
Read 7 tweets
🗣️ Brasil tem o melhor ambiente para Parcerias Público-Privadas na América do Sul. O Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento (BID) apontou em estudo que o Brasil é o melhor destino para investimentos em PPPs por apresentar melhor elaboração e sustentabilidade dos projetos.
Read 13 tweets
🗣️ Teremos deflação em julho? Petrobras anuncia redução de R$ 0,20 (4,93%) no preço da gasolina. O impacto pode ser de queda de 0,5 p.p. no IPCA de julho. Ao mesmo tempo, a redução do ICMS derrubou o preço médio da gasolina em R$ 1,32 e a ANEEL reduziu o preço da energia elétrica
⛽ A redução ocorreu somente no preço da gasolina e foi a primeira desde dezembro de 2021. O preço voltou a ser o mesmo praticado em maio desse ano, antes da elevação para R$ 4,06 de junho. O diesel, porém, sofreu forte elevação em junho e pode influenciar a inflação para cima.
Read 12 tweets

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