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Ben Hunt Profile picture
@EpsilonTheory
Aug 8, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
#BITFD
Seems like a good day to RT this.

This also seems relevant to the Fed being "comfortable" with the cost of living outstripping wage growth.

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More from @EpsilonTheory

Ben Hunt Profile picture
Apr 21
We're in the early stages of a bank run on the United States and the US dollar, and everyone on Wall Street is heading for the exits, including domestic investors who will exit not because they want to but because they know the Not-So-Golden Rule.

New on ET! 🧵 Image
Do unto others as they would do unto you.
But do it first.

That's Wall Street's Not-So-Golden Rule, and if you want to be successful in the business of Money, it's the one rule you must obey.

epsilontheory.com/wall-streets-n…
I think that Trump a) recognizes he overplayed the tariff card, b) is sidelining ideologues like Navarro, and c) is looking to de-escalate the China trade war.

And it doesn’t matter.
epsilontheory.com/wall-streets-n…
Read 6 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
Apr 7
I promised a long-form note on why the tariffs are madness, yes, but even more so why replacing the Pax Americana regime with an America First regime is such a terrible deal for ALL Americans.

So here you go! No paywall on this one.

"Crashing the Car of Pax Americana" 🧵 Image
Pax Americana is the dominance of the USD as the world’s reserve currency and the US military as the world’s security arbiter.

Pax Americana is most of all the American stories that have dominated the hearts and minds of everyone on Earth for 50+ years.
epsilontheory.com/crashing-the-c…
Pax Americana is system of multilateral rules and institutions that coordinates the flow of capital, labor, goods, and services without trying to ‘win’ any head-to-head relationship.

It has made the US insanely wealthy and lifted billions out of poverty.
epsilontheory.com/crashing-the-c…
Read 10 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
Feb 18
The Road to Serfdom is not an endless road, but its path and duration, what I call the Great Ravine, is not up to us to choose. While we walk this road the only thing we can save is our souls, and we do it with one simple sentence: It was never going to be me.
🧵 Image
Trumpism is an ideological embrace of America as a Great Power, that this is everything America should be, and an ideological rejection of America as a Good Power, that this is something America should never be.

epsilontheory.com/it-was-never-g…
I don’t mean “good” in the sense of doling out foreign aid lavishly and stupidly. I mean “good” in the sense of what the Framers called a more perfect Union, where ideas like liberty and justice are policy goals even at the cost of “efficiency”.
epsilontheory.com/it-was-never-g…
Read 7 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
Feb 25, 2024
How does gov’t policy create inflation?

Eversource (ES), the publicly-traded company with a monopoly over most of Connecticut’s electricity supply, is raising its rates by 19% on May 1.

Reason? To recoup losses on required purchase of carbon-free power.

But there’s a twist!
CT requires Eversource to buy electricity from Millstone, the state’s last nuclear power plant, at a fixed price.

Eversource sells this electricity back to the grid.

When nat gas prices are high, like after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the company makes a profit on this.
But when nat gas prices are low Eversource takes a loss, which they may recoup from customers by price hikes.

The lower the price of nat gas, the higher the cost of electricity to Connecticut residents.

I am not making this up.
Read 4 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
Feb 10, 2024
This widespread idea that MSM coverage of Ukraine is dominated by pro-Ukraine propaganda-ish ‘reporting’ is wrong.

And we can prove it with our Fiat News monitors.

epsilontheory.com/useful-idiots/

Image
This is the absolute level of MSM usage of propaganda-ish terms and rhetorical constructions. High since the invasion, and remains elevated (which is unusual).

But it’s not dominated by pro-Ukraine content. Image
In fact, ‘leftist’ MSM like the NYT gives a LOT more coverage to Putin’s rationales for the Ukraine invasion than Fox and Breitbart and the like.
Image
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Read 7 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023
BTW, the NBER paper that Stancil and his Renfields love to cite clearly shows that real wages are lower today than they were pre-pandemic. For women it's the same and for men it's lower.

The economic discontent isn't just vibes. It's lower real wages.
nber.org/system/files/w…

Image
To 'rescue' the vibecession narrative and avoid the unthinkable (that real wages increased under Trump and fell under Biden), a new graphic was created from the NBER dataset that appears nowhere in the original. We are told that we have 'returned to trend' in real wage growth. Image
This is an example of a perfectly fine (I guess) NBER paper trying to show wage compression post-pandemic that has been pressed into Yay, Bidenomics! service by the Stancil/Wolfers crowd for far more sweeping claims than it ever intended or can reasonably support.
Read 4 tweets

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