Lebanon has reached a foundational moment with regard to Hezbollah. For a majority of Lebanese the party is the final rampart of the corrupt political class and the cause of the country’s regional isolation and disintegration. Hezbollah is trapped, it’s fate tied to kleptocrats.
Nor can Nasrallah ready for a conflict with Israel on Iran’s behalf, it’s assigned role. The Iranian order, by undermining sovereign Arab states, has created resentment. Hezbollah’s ability to act against Israel, therefore, must be weighed constantly against domestic hostility.
In Lebanon the Hezbollah order has reached an impasse: no prosperity; isolation from the Arab states who had always helped the country; an agenda of open-ended war; a transformation of Lebanon’s consensual identity; failed pro-Hezbollah governments; even Shia communal resentment.
Today, Nasrallah has a stark choice: to try to silence the country through violence and intimidation, a monumental task the party simply cannot achieve; or to give ground somewhere in order to absorb popular anger. That would mean redefining its ties with the sectarian elite.
All options pose existential threats to the party, which has acted arrogantly and foolishly in ignoring the rules of the sectarian consensual system. This system, by becoming one of sectarian pie-sharing, has lost all credibility, but its rules remain alive in Lebanese minds.
Like the Maronites and the Sunnis, today the Shia community, at least the supporters of Amal and Hezbollah, may pay a price for overreaching. Unfortunately, it took wars for the other communities to get the message, whereas no one is preparing for war today.
So Lebanon has to work out how to erode Hezbollah’s resistance to change. It will take time, effort, and more suffering, but the party offers no way out, may stick to its own failed ways, and is only increasing resentment all across the board, even within the Shia community.
