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1. Tale of two polls: CBS News/YouGov roughly 4 years apart - 45-37 Clinton 8/30-9/2 2016; 49-43 Biden 8/4-8/7 2020
2. Here are the competing crosstabs. 2016: scribd.com/document/32297… and 2020: drive.google.com/file/d/1CFgA4C… A few things stand out.
3. White vote by education level spelled out in 2020 crosstabs, not in 2016. So can't compare there.
4. Should note that these are Pennsylvania polls in each instance (omission from first tweet)

Additionally, the 2016 poll included 2 third-party candidates, Gary Johnson (6%) and Jill Stein (2%), by name. 2020 just Biden v Trump.
5. Including third-party candidates by name generally inflates their eventual totals (Johnson and Stein got 2.4 & .8 in PA, respectively)
6. I'm combining Johnson/Stein/Don't know/Someone else options into "other" for brevity here for both years. That includes those 4 categories for 2016, and just not sure/someone else for 2020
7. Probably the key difference, and *perhaps* good for Biden even though his lead in this poll (6) nominally lower than HRC's (8) last time ---
8. 2020: Biden 90-4 w/ Ds, Trump 90-6 w/ Rs, Biden 44-40 w/ indies. 2016: HRC 83-8 w/ Ds, Trump 75-6 w/Rs, Trump 35-33 w/ indies
9. Big difference w/ party ID: Trump had more room to grow in 2016 w/ more undecided Rs and had nominal lead w/ indies.
10. Trump realized that growth potential: 2016 exit poll indicated that Trump had slightly better party unity than HRC & won independents cnn.com/election/2016/…
11. Now, Biden/Trump both have party unity, Biden nominal lead w/ indies
12. So Trump technically closer in this poll than he was in early Sept. 2016 poll, but perhaps not as many avenues to grow w/ fewer other/undecided voters, more party unity for both candidates, and Biden up (narrowly) w/ indies
P.S. you can see a similar dynamic comparing today's Wisconsin CBS News/YouGov w/ one from early October 2016. 2016 crosstabs: scribd.com/document/32694… and 2020: drive.google.com/file/d/1HySmD4…
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
1. A thread on the CA-25 special, coming up this Tuesday. For obvious reasons, it hasn’t engendered the same amount of interest as, say, PA-18 or OH-12 last cycle
2. Part of this is that we’re in the midst of a presidential campaign, so there’s bigger fish to fry. And of course coronavirus is dominating the news
3. CA-25 is one of seven districts the Democrats flipped in CA last cycle. They’ve taken a 46-7 edge in the statewide House delegation – an absurdly lopsided advantage even taking CA’s overall Dem leaning into account
Read 28 tweets
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Gallup showing Trump at 49/47 approval split helps make a point about something I just noticed yesterday - if you toggle between polls of adults (like Gallup) and registered/likely voters on 538 avg, Trump's approval is now better among all adults. Used to be the opposite
538 all polls Trump approve/disapprove: 42.9/52.4
All adults avg: 43.6/51.7
Likely/registered voters: 42.7/52.7.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
Trendlines shown here. You can see how all adults was usually worse than RV/LV -- Gallup itself is probably a big part of that, as it had Trump's approval generally weaker than many in the past but now better. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
Read 3 tweets
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Crystal Ball: The combined top-two voting in CA House races can sometimes give us some clues for the fall. Let me take you through some of what I found (thread) centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
First of all, we made three rating changes in CA today. All of them benefited Republicans:

CA-25 special Leans D > Toss-up
Devin Nunes (R, CA-22) Likely R > Safe R
Tom McClintock (R, CA-4) Likely R > Safe R
The CA-25 special change has much more to do with the election circumstances than the top-2 results from the primary, which I think were perfectly fine for the Ds. More here (the CA-25 stuff is mostly at the end of the piece) centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 14 tweets

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