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Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

Jan 30

@Newsweek

Three important pieces posted this past week detailing the incentives to overcount deaths associated with COVID-19. The first published in @Newsweek by @DrJBhattacharya and I. Nearly 450,000 Americans have received funeral expense reimbursement.

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1618655823026343936?s=20&t=3gvpagCtwUQSCgBbTydRiA

A COVID diagnosis makes hospitals eligible for 20% addon payments by CMS for Medicare patients (simply testing + when admitted for any reason). Further, when having COVID on the death certificate, families are eligible for funeral expense reimbursement by FEMA.

2/

@WSJ

A column published on the same day in @WSJ by @MSmelkinsonPhD @LeslieBienen and @JeanneNoble18 delved further into the incentives to overcount.

3/

wsj.com/articles/the-v…

Read 17 tweets

Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

Jan 30

Befuddling NFL officiating in last few minutes of this game:

* Int. grounding called on JB, but not on PM on 2nd & 4 throw that didn't get back to LOS

* Late hit called on PM, but not on JB throw

* Missed hold & block in back on punt

* Two missed holds on PM scramble

To me, I credit Mahomes for making plays, but this game was won by the KC d-line taking advantage of the Cincinnati injuries up front. But the one-sided officiating was shocking.

They sure had a selective memory of the rules regarding late hits:

Exhibit A

https://twitter.com/Caudpick4/status/1619912834481266690?s=20&t=U2G0Zcs-mbl5RXFSs884Lg

Read 4 tweets

Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

Jan 11

As some still try to fearmonger on new variants, rise in cases, etc., we are reminded it's baseless.

Here is ave. inpatient census (with) COVID-19 by week (1st axis), w/ave ICU, multiple cause of death & underlying cause (2nd axis). Notice the separation since spring of 2022.

Blue = inpatient beds used for suspected/confirmed COVID

Orange = ICU census w/confirmed COVID

Gray = all deaths with COVID on death certificate

Yellow = all deaths where COVID was listed as primary (underlying) cause.

2/

Data sources: HHS Reported Inpatient Impact and Hospital Capacity timeseries used for hospital and ICU census where the daily average was used for corresponding weeks.

CDC Wonder MMWR weeks used for weeks ending for multiple and underlying cause of death

3/

Read 4 tweets

Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

Jan 2

"He led with his shoulder!" many college football fans quipped about an argument of potential targeting.

This thread exposes why people saying that don't understand the targeting rules in college football. To be fair, I don't think the officials apply it evenly, either.

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If you want to follow along, here is a link to the 2022 NCAA official rules book. You can find the targeting of a defenseless player rule on FR-93 (p. 96 of the PDF) in Rule 9, Art. 4

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ncaapublications.com/productdownloa…

The definition of targeting is "forcible contact" to the "head or neck area of a defenseless opponent."

It can be with the helmet, shoulder, forearm, elbow, hand, or fist. It requires one indicator of targeting. Note that when in question, it is a foul.

3/

Read 8 tweets

Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

Dec 29, 2022

This is a color-coded visualization of risk ratios by month and age group compared to 15-24 used as the reference (how many more times likely a group is likely to see COVID-19 mortality in a month based on per capita rates).

Method: each age group uses April 1, 2020 census estimates as base population and monthly mortality is CDC Wonder underlying cause of death from NCHS.

Per 1M monthly average for 15-24 (1.67 deaths per million) is used as reference. Color scales are set at 30/50/70 percentile.

The reason I do not use younger age groups than 15-24: the mortality is so low in a month, that mortality is often suppressed for privacy reasons by CDC. In other words...it's too low to accurately calculate mortality rates. But you already knew children were at low-risk!

Read 5 tweets

Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

Dec 27, 2022

I see some bad faith arguments about the vaccines from both sides. But one I want to correct is about the impact it's had on mortality.

CDC data show from Oct. 2021 through Oct. 2022 about 115,000 deaths among unvaccinated and 75,000 from vaccinated.

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data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-…

Note that these numbers assume someone is unvaccinated when vaccination status is unknown (as sometimes records don't immediately reflect it upon death).

IRR show a decrease in mortality rates, especially older ages. But the idea that they are preventing all disease is false

This is to say that all those 115,000 were to be assumed unvaccinated, when in reality some were vaccinated but the records did not yet reflect it. This happens frequently and it exaggerates the IRR.

Read 4 tweets

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