If the election were held today, Biden might win in a landslide. BUT the election is not today. It’s August. We have debates and conventions. There's a pandemic, which is also causing a volatile economy. So, basically, it's way too soon to count Trump out. 53eig.ht/3gPDkPp
The FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast has Trump with a 29 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. 53eig.ht/2PLWYja
Meanwhile, Biden is currently ahead in our polling averages in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio and in the second congressional district in Nebraska — all places that Clinton lost in 2016. 53eig.ht/polls
*Note: Polls often change substantially between now and November.
**COVID-19 is a big reason to avoid feeling overly confident about the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. 53eig.ht/3gPDkPp
***And, no, we didn’t build a COVID-19 projection model. It’s really hard. (But we did build an “uncertainty index” that governs the margin of error in our forecast.) 53eig.ht/342YjIX
Our model says there’s an 81 in 100 chance that Biden wins the popular vote — compared to his 71 in 100 chance in the Electoral College. That means there’s about a 10% chance that Trump *again* wins the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. 53eig.ht/3gPDkPp 
