Some notes about the 2020 forecast: Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, as opposed to hard-and-fast binary predictions about who will win or lose. It estimates the chances of each candidate winning, and will update continuously until Election Day. 53eig.ht/3amzhaD
We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.
These maps are a representative sample of how things might shake out on Election Day. 53eig.ht/2020
These maps are a representative sample of how things might shake out on Election Day. 53eig.ht/2020
"Election Day." 53eig.ht/2DNxMq5
This chart shows all possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations.
More bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins.
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More bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins.
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The 🐍 chart shows why some states are hotly contested and others mostly get ignored. 53eig.ht/2020
These are the tipping points.
States are ordered here by how likely they are to deliver the decisive vote in the Electoral College.
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States are ordered here by how likely they are to deliver the decisive vote in the Electoral College.
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This election is being contested amidst the most serious pandemic to hit the United States since 1918. So we’ve implemented some changes to our model. 53eig.ht/3izxdiB
