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Let's see if I got this right: In 2016, the DNC rigged the primaries to shove an unelectable candidate onto the presidential ticket. The reasons they gave for voting for Hillary were: Trump is bad, she would be the first female president. Epic fail. Now...
...in 2020, they've shoved an electable candidate onto the presidential and an unelectable candidate onto the VP ticket. The reasons they are giving for voting Biden are: Trump is still bad, the VP that you didn't want to see as presidential nominee will take over on Day 1, and..
...she would be the first female black President. Am I missing something or is this once again a giant middle finger into the face of the electorate, oozing corruption and manipulation, which was a major reason for why Trump got elected in the first place?
By the way, I don't have a dog in this race, as I'm not American, I'll leave it up to Americans to pick the right person. I'm just doubting that this particular stunt will work out for the Dems.
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Andreas Backhaus
@AndreasShrugged
In this clip, @ChrisCuomo claims the US is handling the pandemic worse economically because US GDP ("growth"?!) contracted by 33% while Germany's GDP contracted by 10% in Q2/2020. This comparison is incorrect and misleading. The 33% are an annual rate, the 10% a quarterly change.
This is apples-to-oranges. The annual (or annualized) rate presumes that the contraction would be the same for the entire year as from Q1 to Q2. So if the quarterly change from Q1 to Q2 is bad, the annualized growth rate will look terrible because you compound bad contractions.
The German -10.1% contraction simply compares Q2 to Q1 in 2020. What's the corresponding % for the US? It's -9.5% (you can find that easily at the NYT)! So when comparing apples-to-apples, the US economy contracted LESS than the German one from Q1 to Q2!
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Andreas Backhaus
@AndreasShrugged
TGIF, finally time to debunk: No, the survival rate of COVID-19 isn't 99.96% according to the most recent evidence! The survival rate in % is 100 minus infection fatality rate. The infection fatality rate (IFR) isn't 0.04% for the general population, it's rather 10 times as high.
The @CDCgov looks at some scenarios and says their Current Best Estimate for the IFR is 0.0065 - which is 0.65%. This puts the survival rate at 99.35%. The number of deaths would be more than 16 times as high as if the survival rate were 99.96%. cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
A shortcoming of reporting a single IFR for the total population is that in case of COVID-19, the IFR differs a lot by age. In Geneva (CH), it's estimated to be <0.01%...for people below age 50! For people age 65+, the credible interval is 4.3% to 7.4%. thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
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Andreas Backhaus
@AndreasShrugged
Latest #coronavirus hoax is a @Medium story whose author claims "It is likely that a large number of the daily reported infection numbers are purely due to viral debris." One question sufficient to debunk it: Why then are infections rising in the U.S. but not in Western Europe?
His theory goes that immunity is already wide-spread and PCR tests are just reporting a lot of false positives due to viral debris. If this was true, this should happen everywhere where the virus has been around for a while - like Western Europe. But it's not happening there.
Within the US, New York should be reporting a lot of false positives due to viral debris, as it's still testing a lot, if the theory were true - but it isn't; new cases in NY are low. The theory also doesn't square with hospitalizations rising in states with high reported cases.
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