Thread by @joshua_landis

1. Are the U.S. and France headed for conflict over policy in the Mediterranean & Middle East?

Read the thread:

https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1293741681473454080

2. France has historically claimed primacy in the Mediteranean region. This has been true since Napoleon & grew stronger as France acquired colonies in North Africa and the Levant.

Turkey is now challenging France for primacy in the East Med.

3. The top prize for France since the Arab Spring uprisings has been Libya.

Italy had major Libyan oil deals under Qaddafi. To wrest control of Libya, France sided w Gen Haftar against the UN recognized governing coalition in Tripoli (GNC), which rules a small section of Libya.

4. This puts France at odds w Italy, but also w Turkey, which has made a major play for Libya, by sending over 10,000 Syrian fighters to shore up the weak GNC.

Erdogan received tacit US bakcing in his effort against France, Haftar & allies, EG, UAE, & KSA
bbc.com/news/world-eur…

5. How do they line up on Iran?

U.S. says military’s top priority in the Middle East is Iran.

But France is against snap-back sanctions. It supports the JCPOA Iran deal, and needs an Iran alliance to pressure Turkey.

defenseone.com/threats/2020/0…

6. The UAE-Israel alliance, just announced, is part of the Anti-Iran effort.

But the US is in an awkward position b/c it supports KSA against Iran, but is against the KSA position in Libya.

The US relationship w Turkey will be a sticking point

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1293922803419353088?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

7. Lebanon:
France & the US are taking opposite sides on a Lebanon fix as well. The US is preparing to announce sanctions of Lebanon's top politicians who enable Hizbullah as part of its anti-Iran & pro-Israel policy. It is selling sanctions as an anti-corruption measure.

8. France has taken the opposite tact on Lebanon. Macron called Iran the day after his visit to Lebanon and they both announced the need for a "national unity" gov in Lebanon. This means Hizbullah, the most powerful faction, must be included & not sanctioned.

9. Turkey's claims in the Eastern Med against a weak Greece, are sure to bring the United States into increasing conflict with its normal allies. Saudi Arabia is furious & beginning to see Turkey is a threat much like Iran.

The US is backing Turkey's ambitions in Syria, which include claiming a broad swath of territory along its entire 909 km boarder as well as destroying the PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the PYD.

The single response that Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon will be able to advance in the face of Washington's Maximum Pressure campaign will be to turn toward China & Russia for diplomatic & economic help.

washingtonpost.com/world/2020/07/…

Iran has already signed a China Pact. But Iraq is doing the same.

Is Iraq About To Become A Chinese Client State? | OilPrice.com oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Mi… #oilprice

Israelis too is moving toward China b/c it makes economic sense & it needs to reinsure itself against China's growing footprint in the region, driven by US short-sighted policies. foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/16/us-…

The Iran-China deal offers an economic lifeline to Iran, allowing it to bypass U.S. sanctions & sell oil & gas to China in exchange for letting China exercise influence over Iranian companies it invests in & allowing Chinese security personnel to protect Beijing’s econ interests.

https://twitter.com/JMJalel_H/status/1294332334515331073

Turkey hits out at France in Med gas crisis. "France should avoid steps that will increase tensions," Turkish F.M. said

"The Turks will not get anywhere by acting like bullies, whether in Libya, NE of Syria, Iraq or the Med," Macron retorted.

news.yahoo.com/turkey-hits-fr…

https://twitter.com/coloredopinions/status/1294502209565196288