KV Kamath at a conference organised by @ICICIPruMF
If in Formula 1 race if we can change tyres in 2 seconds, we can reset the country in a blink of an eye.
The magic at blink of an eye which was done during the lockdown.. taking orders on Whatsapp, Google Sheets, settting up of websites, setting up adhoc counters to sell & deliver goods.
This was a mind reset to do work on the fly
@swiggy_in y transformed from food delivery to world class delivery platform - this is an excellent example of blink of an eye disruption and a response to act. #swiggy
Unless your App looks like a website and keeps on changing shapes / colours every day, then you are at risk. One needs to reinvent yourself on a monthly basis to be on the feet to avoid getting discrupted by the Startups.
Zero Interest rates - when and how will this end. This is not sustainable. Japan has been close to zero for 20 years. The correlation is with Growth. If it is not there, rates will be close to zero.
The issue is not with India - has 25 yrs+ growth path in future.
The issue with Zero rates is for the savers. With decreasing passive income, savers would need to look towards govt for handouts.
The issue will be for the Govt debt. This can be resolved only via Growth via harvesting through the incomes coming from Growth. US could recover. India would definitely recover. But what about Europe - that is a doubtful area.
Will we get raging growth from 2002-07 ?
Every 10 years, the top Companies keep on changing who become the biggest and the fastest growers. The challenging & interesting task for fund managers is to identify such new players and blend it with old players in portfolio.
Good things to learn from China
The growth in China is real. Their activities are real. E.g. in Shanghai, they built 30 km of cycling track with Gardens, etc. in 6 months. The activities result in linked employment.
Speed and precision of Execution is remarkable
Interest rates are kept low for borrowers, lending @ 5% unlink more than 10% in India.
Projects of economic value are done at speed.
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If you are a NRI who hasnt filed returns in India for years & who hasn't linked PAN with Adhaar, then please by 31 March 2022 do atleast one of the two tasks :
Please RT for further share this thread
1. If you have an Adhaar, you must link it to your PAN. You can check the PAN Adhaar link status via the easy link below. It works via a desktop pan.utiitsl.com/panaadhaarlink…
2. You may have an inhibition on not linking your PAN with Adhaar. There isnt much happening via the linking. All of your key info is already with the Govt. Your biometrics are with them already via Adhaar. What else could you hide. Hence I recommend strongly to link
Having data scientist is a common thing for all data centric businesses. You will be killed if you dont have it. I won't just run behind HDFC Life because for this fact. On the contrary, their tech sucks ! Ask their sales teams. They don't even hv a decent proposal capture app.
To know about tech, learn from any of the ICICI group companies. Miles ahead. Compared to ICICI Pru, HDFC Life is in stone age. Marcellus may say channel checks, but I am a part of the channel and their customer too. If Tech is the reason, then they got it wrong.
When it comes to investing in Life insurance companies, I don't always see the point. Their major part of the product is sulking investment portfolios of traditional and ULIPs. No sane investor would invest in them. Their agents won't love to sell Term Covers, which is the core
Big spread between India vs US 10 year rate curve. US is
0.25% vs India at 6.117%
Longer term rates have yet to come down meaningfully. Shorter duration rates have come down materially. Orange line is for Aug 2020 vs the blue line of Jan 2020.
A dividend policy of a Company is a vital piece of info which should be considered for an investment decision. Generally a Co in high growth path would like to retain max earnings into the business to fund it's expansion plans. This sounds reasonable provided growth can be seen
If a Co doesn't have much of an expansion requirement or churns free cashflow in excess of its expansion, it should distribute the surplus to the shareholders. This is again okay, provided, one is not investing in a Co which has sub par growth and no future capex
A Co may retain its earning to bail it out of debts or excessive working capital needs. A not so happy situation to be in. This could at times be confused with high growth requirements & needs to be studied by lifting the lid of the can. Nothing much can be done here and
Tale of two PMS managers. First is one of the largest in India and avoids punter giri. Good stocks and strong track records. It didn't buy Reliance earlier citing Aggressive Accounting. Bought it in May post International stake sales. Perhaps, will help to align to benchmarks.
Another one is a recent entrant and its founder enjoys immense respect. Sticks to quality. By its Investment process, I believe that it won't buy Reliance till the business is a compounder and it gets free cashflow. Cites it's recent underperformance to not holding Reliance.
Hard to say if the recent entrant will succumb to the pressure of buying Reliance (like the first PMS). Fund manager job is hard. If they stick to their process, the investors would strangle them for recent underperformance. If they go to beat the benchmark, inv will challenge..