Why Putin should not & is not likely to intervene militarily in Belarus in support of Lukashenko:
1. Putin really can't stand Lukashenko & he is very emotional.
2. Lukashenko appears to have no popular support (unlike Yaunukovych who had 40% of Ukrainians behind him).
1. Putin really can't stand Lukashenko & he is very emotional.
2. Lukashenko appears to have no popular support (unlike Yaunukovych who had 40% of Ukrainians behind him).
3. Given that the Belarusian Deputy Minister of Interior apologized for violence yesterday, Lukashenko probably no longer controls a significant number of siloviki.
4. A Russian military intervention in Belarus would probably be bloody & certainly cost Russia too much.
4. A Russian military intervention in Belarus would probably be bloody & certainly cost Russia too much.
5. The Belarusian opposition is against Lukashenko, not Russia. The Kremlin may be able to live with that.
6. Putin's regime is very able to infiltrate & manipulate, which costs much less than military intervention. Why be too blatant?
6. Putin's regime is very able to infiltrate & manipulate, which costs much less than military intervention. Why be too blatant?
7. The latest post-Soviet colored revolution was in Armenia in 2018 & Putin appears to be quite happy with PM Pashinyan.
8. The question is whether Putin is not happier with President Zelensky than with Lukashenko.
9. Yet, I know nothing about Russian military contingency plans.
8. The question is whether Putin is not happier with President Zelensky than with Lukashenko.
9. Yet, I know nothing about Russian military contingency plans.
10. That Lukashenko organized a media meeting today to appeal to Putin for a conversation indicates that Putin really does not want to talk to him (good choice!).
11. The comments from Moscow are strikingly uncoordinated, suggesting no clear policy in favor of Lukashenko.
11. The comments from Moscow are strikingly uncoordinated, suggesting no clear policy in favor of Lukashenko.
