Today, Washington is facing serious demonstrations under the slogans “no peace without justice” and “black lives matter.” It is important to understand what is really in play. Arguably, the United States is in its worst constitutional crisis since the Civil War.
1. My view is that the US is in a pre-coup situation. Trump is now trying to scramble to find loyal commanders & troops, after having lost the Pentagon & the national guard. We know he has the prison guards & the border & customs guards, which is not much. He needs more.
2. Logically, the Trump campaign is now being transformed into the "Trump Army" with cameo maga hats. Clearly, Trump wants to mobilize his base, white supremacists & the NRA to come to his armed support with their legal assault rifles.
3. In order to be able to justify serious violence, Trump needs to provoke significant killings that he can blame on somebody else ("antifa"). Stalin & Hitler organized such incidents when attacking Finland & Poland, respectively. W/o such a incident, a coup cannot be accepted.
4. The insight is that Trump cannot win a presidential election in November. Currently, the real clear politics average against him is 7.1%. Therefore, Trump has reasons to make sure that the elections can't take place, i.e. a state of emergency.
5. Ideally, the opposition to Trump manages to be peaceful & contain violence. If they fail, they will need to find troops that support the Constitution rather than Trump. Right now, the Pentagon & the top generals claim to support the Constitution, avoiding the word president.
6. This scramble for loyal commanders & troops is typical for pre-coup situation all over the world. The 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine was peaceful because President Kuchma refused to order his troops to shoot, while PM Yanukovych with less troops shied away. (I was there.)
7. This is not to say that the one who starts serious shooting wins. On February 26, 1917, large-scale but peaceful disorders erupted in Petrograd. Tsar Nicholas II ordered his generals to shoot & dozens of protesters were killed. Next Nicholas was ousted in the Feb revolution.
8. It is obvious who has the greatest interest in violence now & that a scramble for loyal troops is going on. The last legitimate authority, the US House of Representatives, should intervene to stop this all too likely bloodshed for only one man.
