If #Belarus regime makes concessions, we will be fast in legal-constitutional territory. Scenarios: 1. Supreme Court accepts appeal to review elections results (problem: Loss of time/momentum. Ballots were destroyed and can be falsified) 2. #Lukashenka resigns (parliament must
approve), new elections in 30-70 days (art81 Constitution), Prime Minister will be interim head of executive (classical transition challenge: old institutions supposed to now organise honest elections. Central election commission tainted, but with proper public srcutiny, obser-
vation, etc. it may be possible); other conditions important (TV coverage, free assembly, release of political prisoners, registration of candidates). Challenge for opposition: Agree on one candidate? 3. President could be impeached by parliament, but complicated slow path (art88
All these would be formally constitutional routes. So far opposition has insisted on lawful conduct of state autority (repeat falsified elections) rather than revolutionary slogans. Makes sense to avoid to-be-expected rhetoric of "illegality" from authorities & Moscow. Important
to stress that brutality of authorities was massive breach of constitutional human rights (the whole regime was a violation of these provisions for a long time, now it`s more obvious). Zero "formal legality" of government action. Overall the legal-constitutional struggle will
be about maintaining momentum (opposition) versus slowing down things by legal-technical maneurvers (government) that look like concessions but change as little as possible. @JoergForbrig @Melissahei @AliceBota @fuecks @fromTGA @Gerhard_Gnauck @andreasroberto @J_Jaraczewski
