Where have all the workers gone. 11 years ago train and bus passengers where 53 million a month. The last quarter the average was 67 000. That means less than 0,2% (a fifth of a percent!) were left in the system. A 100% decline in last quarter yes Covid but what about May/June? 
Assuming monthly weekday journey (with leave entitlement) this would represent 1,35 million working adults. Same calculation means less than 3 500 last quarter on the rail. Even with pick up less than 7500 in June!!!
Busses at less than 11 million average or less than 600 000 workers which means here too there are 1,4 million adults on a monthly basis missing. Thus the total missing from work on average in the last quarter is 2,75 million
!st tweet should refer to rail only. Sorry about that, but total passenger journeys are down from a high of 77,4 million in 2009. Where have they gone?
Well, this year it is unlikely that they have gone to private transport as on average over the last 150 days the traffic in Joburg was just over 45% less than the year before. Cape town about 42% and similar for Durban, NMB, Bloem etc.
Taxis are complaining that they do not have as many passengers either. The whole passenger transport numbers are shouting out that something serious is wrong. Yes some work from home but less likely for rail and bus passengers.
Even Uber drivers have complained about fewer passengers. The number of people at work is still 38% less than a year ago over last month or so. Really the administrative data points to a big collapse in work in SA.
Over the last five months around 16% extra people have been home on average. At present this is close to the 16% level still according to google mobility. As only 42% of SA adults work that 16% rise may then be of the 58% that do not work. This indicates a 9,3% shift
That 9% on the face value could indicate that 58% become 67% and therefore only 33% of adults are working. (we do not know how schools etc impact here but there is some impact) But a good educated guess is that the % of working adults drops to 35% from 42% a year ago.
That indicates about 2,7 to 2,8 million people currently without work. some may be back later as industries open. but this is the best indication yet of the total number of adults in work as the journey indicate steep downward shift along with vehicle traffic
While many could be working from home some of the time I think the numbers indicate that millions of South Africans are now unemployed. Not 1 or 2 million but more but unlikely to be much over 3 million. So now my best guess is at say 2,3 million new unemployed
Add 400 000 new entrants (600 000 people join labour force every year but not all want to work, some stay at home others study etc. Broad unemployment number therefore likely to go from 10,4 million 13,1 million. Employed to 14,1 million.
So that is maybe or at least an estimate of where the workers have gone. It is going to be touch and go if SA unemployment rate in next year goes above 50% for broader unemployment. Hope I'm wrong but alternative data sets indicate massive job destruction.
Thas all
Thas all
