Thread by @JuanPenalosa

🚨FL PRIMARY ELECTION DAY!🚨

Here's what @FlaDems is 👀 [thread 1/10]

Let's start w/ #VoteByMail

@FlaDems enrolled 1 million+ new voters into #VoteByMail. The FL Primary is 1st indicator of how this huge new universe of voters will behave.

So let's dig in. #DemCastFL #FlaPol

[2/10] @FloridaGOP under performing #VoteByMail. @FlaDems keeping pace w/ '16

DEMS
Return rate: 51%* [55% in '16]
VBM ballots cast: 1.1 Million [491k in '16]

GOP
Return rate: 52%* [62% in '16]
VBM ballots cast: 729k [617k in '16]

*Not all VBM counted return rates will ⬆️

[3/10] Democrats are leading in EVERY demo in #VoteByMail ballots cast.

Hispanic, 65+, white, young voters...

This lines up w/ data showing Democrats in Florida are more enthusiastic across the board, seniors and Hispanic voters may be trending blue in 2020 #FlaPol #DemCastFL

[4/10] Hot Take 🔥🚨👇🏽

⬆️#VoteByMail = down ballot wins

Mail votes increase # of votes for down ballots by 3-10%, b/c voters w/ mail ballots don't vote top of ticket & stop. They vote the full ballot.

1 million new Dem VBM voters = BIG impact down ballot. #FlaPol #DemCastFL

[5/10] Last 2 #VoteByMail takeaways before moving on to in person voting

@FlaDems ⬆️enrollments edge over @FloridaGOP by 660k vs 2016.

But, smart folks say, enrollments don't vote. So, what are the totals?

Dems ⬆️VBM returns by 570k over '16
GOP ⬆️VBM returns by 111k over '16

[6/10] Nobody is talking about this but it's IMPORTANT.

FL GOP needs 141K more #VoteByMail returns to = '16 turnout 😱& unreturned ballots prob won't get cast in person b/c that's not how FL VBM works.

FL GOP is leaving 100K+ ballots on the table vs 2016

#FlaPol #DemCastFL

[7/10] Now in person #EarlyVote:

Dems racked up a 330K lead in returns in #votebymail but w/ about in person voting?

In 2016, GOP edged Dems in in person early vote by 9,200 votes. 2020, GOP increased edge to 58K. Not the margin needed to catch Dems, so it's all down to #EDay

[8/10] TURNOUT TAKEAWAYS

@FloridaGOP needs to cast 260,000+ more votes than @FlaDems today if they want to get to parity with Democrats.

Also, w/ nearly all the #VoteByMail and #EarlyInPerson votes cast, @FlaDems ⬆️turnout over 2016 by 544k votes, @FloridaGOP by only 143k votes

[9/10] FINAL TAKEAWAY: Early returns show record number of candidates recruited by @FlaDems & dozens of progressive partners in FL is paying off.

In FL, elections are decided by 10,000 votes [or less]. Adding 500+ Democratic candidates who organize the vote is huge. #FlaPol

[10/10 the end for now]

Stay tuned I'll be giving some district and county updates as ballots come in.

Oops. One more thing. And it's important.

Aug 2016 primary vote totals [all voting types]:
FL DEMS: 1,129,781
FL GOP: 1,430,492

When all votes were counted in Aug 2016 primary, @FloridaGOP held a 300K vote margin.

GOP needs to cast 530k more votes than Dems today to = this