1. I am intentionally going to propose a controversial hypothesis in this thread. My hypothesis is that #pftour20 is more valuable now than in the past due to the change last year in USDA yield estimation methodology. My point is not related to wind damage. That is separate.
https://twitter.com/MaxROIFarmer/status/1296091670522585088
2. Recall that USDA last year dropped the objective yield survey from the Aug corn and soybean crop report. I have been worried about this decision ever since it was announced. The justification for dropping the objective yield survey for Aug was never really provided by USDA.
3. I presume that the USDA had grounds for believing that the objective yield survey did not add that much information early in the corn and soybean yield forecast season. I am certainly not opposed to cost saving if accuracy is not sacrificed.
4. The key in my mind is found in a #FDD I wrote with DG back in August 2016 called "Opening up the Black Box." farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2016/08/openin…
5. In short, the secret sauce to USDA yield forecast accuracy in the past was twofold: i) two independent forecast indicators, and ii) offsetting bias adjustments for the two indicators (at least in Aug). Objective yield survey tended to be too high, farm operator too low.
6. Starting last year the USDA dropped the objective yield survey for Aug. They seem to signal that a satellite indicator is at least partially substituting but their messaging on this is very confusing. In any event, I am skeptical that a satellite indicator is as accurate.
7. I do note that dropping the objective indicator did not seem to hurt USDA Aug corn and soybean yield forecast accuracy in 2019. But maybe they just got lucky. It is hard for me to believe you can throw out such important information and not lose accuracy in the longer run.
8. So, back to my hypothesis. If USDA Aug forecast accuracy is compromised due to dropping the objective yield survey, then field level yield estimation like the PFT actually should be more valuable. Interesting to hear reaction to this hypothesis.
9. Think of it this way. The #pftour20 is now the first systematic objective yield estimation of the season for corn and soybeans. USDA used to do this but now they don't.
10. Lots of criticism of #pftour yield information, and I have contributed my share of that in the past. But conditions have now changed. Last but not least, note that USDA continues to do objective yield survey for Sep corn and soybean crop report.
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