Thread by @CallerNaked

Finally some life springing back to the EU $TSLA Q3 delivery scene!

Inventory had been emptied out by end of Q2 and the first RORO unloaded only 2 weeks ago, so we could not really expect much before.

Will it be business as usual for rest of Q3?

Thread 1/14

Most inventory for new cars shown on 14 Tesla EU sites still says "in transit". Far fewer cars have a city "site" label attached to them.

For example in CH about 30 M3 (out of 100+) are attached to either Zurich or Geneva. 8 out of 13 S and 5 out of 15 X also "on site".

2/14

Geneva showroom showing only one 3 and one X. Expect S to be added soon, because why not with all that inventory?

In Q2 as M3 got delivered used S and X were added to Tesla website offer. Remember how they liquidated them by dropping price on those *every day*.

3/14

$TSLA now also cooperating with Cembra Money (former GE Capital) to offer 0.99% leasing.

Hey store manger, if you have to order before 9th of August to profit from it, why have you not taken your poster down yet? (pic taken yesterday)

4/14

So far no used S or X showing up in CH. They had one used S on the day 1st RORO arrived. It disappeared on 18th of August after dropping price from 71k to 64k CHF.

Remember - quite a few S and X owners switching to M3, using previously generous resale value guarantee RVG.

5/14

Can a company - notorious for not honoring warranty and not accepting claims of manufacturing defects - also simply not honor RVG?

Perhaps, but in that case we would expect offer of used Tesla on portal Autoscout24 to increase.

6/14

$TSLA used car offer on Autoscout up from ca. 170 units mid-July to 191 units today.

But I would not read too much into that for now.

What is happening in other EU countries?

7/14

In France and Germany, order of magnitude bigger than Switzerland, relatively few new inventory cars are listed as available "on site".

As per my previous tweets the "in transit" cars are not even allocated to country, so $TSLA can play around with that as they want.

8/14

So far Switzerland was always ahead of France and Germany in $TSLA sales for reasons similar to Norway:

High per capita GDP, status symbol, 2nd or 3rd car.

This is also reflected on Autoscout24: more used $TSLA offered in CH than in much bigger D or FR ..

9/14

.. which can be explained by larger and earlier "installed base".

Despite that, little in way of superchargers or service centers has been added.

However towns, private parkings and shops are adding EV charge infrastructure for *all* EV *and* PHEV at much faster rate!

10/14

Example at public parking space: all 6 EV charging booths occupied, 3x EV, 3x PHEV. Today 1 out of 6 is a Tesla.

Charge not included in parking fee, but rate reasonable.

11/14

We know from @fly4dat and others that Q3 sales are slow in Norway+Spain+Netherlands, but we also know that for Q3 countries like Germany, UK, France will be much more determinant.

12/14

I repeat my qualitative expectations for $TSLA Q3 EU deliveries:
* less RORO than for Q2
* end with WAY more inventory "on site" than at end of Q2
* price pressure for any used car inventory

13/14

In Q2 relatively poor EU deliveries were due to poor planning/execution by $TSLA.

Q3 will also be relatively poor but this time due to strong competition. $TSLA will have some scope to hide it with "financial deliveries" and perhaps even A/R for fleet deals.

$TSLAQ

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