Thread by @CallerNaked

Accompanying Teslemmings to TSLAQ enlightenment - long thread.

I used to be a moderate Tesla bull. Quite involved - selling short puts from 2014 onwards and offering myself a S85D in 2015 - but not very informed until about early 2016.

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By 2017 I had turned full bear - again quite involved what with naked call writing - on the basis of more specialized information.

What changed was not so much the information but my need to assign different levels of confidence to very disparate sources of information.

Some would say I had become biased. I believe I had become "woke", like a Teslemming waking from a geek daydream.
TSLAQ team likes to think of themselves as quite "woke" compared to TSLA permabulls and EM shills. Fair enough. But was I not "woke" back in 2015 as a TSLA bull?

With my engineering degree, 20 years of professional financial markets experience and top-tier school MBA I was already considering myself "smartish" before EM even made that a thing.

I believe that "smarts" is not what sets TSLAQ apart from Teslemmings.

Just like @TeslaCharts I believe one's personal relation to media - business press, social media, popular science etc - is where the problem lies.

Some Tesla car owners have based their purchase decision mainly on the Tesla website and/or visits to DC, showroom.

That is how I bought my S85D. I had witnessed steady technological progress on the website and had no reason to doubt the veracity of the claims. I ordered one of the first dual-drive model S available. Just one month after I ordered, capacity offered had grown from 85 to 90kWh -

had I known I might have put off order for a month!

When I got my car all "AP" was capable of was advanced cruise control. By Nov15 OTA had added steering capability.

Would a mere mortal like me not want to suppose that range would double in the next five years? Having experienced the first iteration of AP was it unreasonable to expect more progress in the years ahead?

Many Teslemmings are self-proclaimed geeks lacking specialized knowledge and there is nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is TESLA management's exploitation and abuse of this type of Teslemmings.

As I placed my S85D order I was already aware of the unhealthy balance sheet of Tesla. I had calculated that equity investors had plowed in 150kUSD for each car produced by then. My bias of wanting to buy this cool car interpreted this fact as a subsidy to me.

Back in 2015 there was simply no other alternative in EU offering similar range, and none was expected for years to come.

In the beginning I experienced the same "but have you driven one bro" excitement that I had never felt with other cars.

I was generous in letting family, colleagues and friends try it out. Awareness in EU about EV was super low.

Nowadays I am equally outspoken in warning people against buying, as for me TSLAQ is a question of when not if.

And if ever I get kicked off Fintwit it will also be because of TSLAQ, right @jack?

What type of info "woke" me up? In first instance SeekingAlpha, from where some contributors - Montana Skeptic in first place - pointed the way to Twitter. I got on Twitter ONLY because of TSLAQ.

We cannot expect all Teslemmings to have affinity for financial media like SA. Some of those who do dabble in investing may be limited to analyst reports from brokers and investment banks.

My suspicion is that quite a few analysts know TSLA is a POS going to zero, but legal & compliance won't let them write as much.

Another problem is the mainstream media. I tend to agree with TSLAQ that EM has managed to create conflicts of interest and has otherwise strong-armed

weak reporters to become shills. Mainstream media seem to have some of the same legal & compliance constraints that financial analysts have: EM has sued for less than mere expression of doubts.

Assymetry of access to information between press and TESLA is in favor of EM, which we have seen exploited in a blunt and immoral ways.

For Teslemmings to "wake up" they need to
•Question the info coming at them. No better change agent here than EM himself, as with time his BS becomes only more obvious.
•Dig for more info, using independent providers. Any topic: EV range, FSD, life-cycle carbon footprint.

•Become attuned to contradictions between EM / TSLA shill bullshit and observable facts.

TSLAQ Fintwit is of course the most convenient pathway to enlightenment for Teslemmings.

Please accept this long thread as my small contribution to TSLAQ, based more on personal experience than any new facts.

For 2019 I wish TSLAQ community stepped exponential growth in followers and engagement, and kindness to Teslemmings on their way to enlightenment. A martial attitude remains reserved for Doxxers, paid EM shills and incurable trolls thriving on FUD.

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