THREAD-1-Realistic bad-to-worse case scenarios as as far as Belarus. Lukashenko has already asked Putin for "assistance"/troops & reports are the Russia has already started sending in troops to quell unrest. Russian FM already saying they can't tolerate ouster of Lukashenko.
2-Russia is likely to occupy all of Belarus. Trump isn't saying or doing anything, neither is Pompeo. U.S. media covering DNC to the level of drowning out coverage of Belarus. Trump will be focused on election and will likely do nothing as Russia consolidates control
3-some context on Belarus. Until recent strengthening of Orban's powers in Hungary, Belarus was the last dictaorship in Europe. Lukashenko has entered Belarus into a treaty with Russia that puts the two countries in a union, a path to make them essentially on federated state.
4-But Lukashenko has dragged his feet and played Europe and Russia against each other, flirting with stronger ties with each to get things out of the other. Recently, he and Putin have been disputing over several issues. But now that Lukashenko's in trouble, he's running to Vlad
5-& Putin now has Lukashenko where he wants him. In order for saving his ass, Putin will likely effectively absorb Belarus w/ Lukashenko becoming more like a Russian governor, though Belarus will likely retain nominal independence. Putin knows Trump'll do nothing big to stop him
6-Between now & the U.S. election, Putin has plenty of time to take over Belarus, shore up Lukashenko, clamp down on media there. But here's the thing: Lithuania is hosting Tikhanouskaya, Lukasehnko's opponent & likely legit pres.-elect of Belarus. Here's where it gets tricky.
7-Russia has always been infuriated at the loss of the Baltics (Lith, Latvia, Lithuania, formerly part USSR) & Putin wants them back. He HATES that they are NATO. He HATES NATO. & each state has sizable ethnic Russian minorities who mostly love Putin & would love to rejoin Russia
8-I met some of these ethnic Baltic Russians who emigrated to Israel when I traveled there. They, & many others, would, support Putin. Now, let's look at Lithuania's border w/ Belarus: Lithuania's capital Vilnius is just about 20 miles from Belarus border via a major road 
9-But then you see that weird part of Lithuania that pokes about 30 miles into Belarus that is also close to Vilnius? Divided area, no populated by many Lithuanians that has changed hands multiple times in 20th century. Russians could easily create a false flag operation here
10-(As I write this, Russia's main oppo figure @navalny has been poisoned, on ventilator. Kremlin might be trying to silence him ahead of operation as Navalsy is great at mobilizing opposition to Putin, ICU filled with police).
11-Anyway, if Russia is firmly in control of Belarus, that border region could be prime spot to claim Lithuania--who is harboring Lukashenko's opponent and speaking against the rigged election--attacked Russian forces. Russia intervened in similar ways in Ukraine & Georgia
12-There's no question Putin is salivating at chance to grab one of the Baltics, which would effectively destroy NATO if NATO did not unite and push Russia out militarily (point of NATO is mutual defense). He knows Trump won't, & Trump has pretty much said this. 2020 election key
13-Now is where it gets really scary. Putin is not ins a rush. He bides his time. He knows Trump will let him get away militarily with invading NATO-member Baltics. Could take U.S. a while to count votes, but if it's clear Trump won, Putin will bide time, will 4 years at least
14-But if it looks Biden will win, even if there disputed, Putin has a golden window before Biden takes office to steal 1/2/3 NATO states & be pretty-much guaranteed USA under Trump won't stop/fight him. He will happily trade neutering NATO, taking EU countries for temp sanctions
15-By time Biden takes office, whatever Russia has done will be a fait accompli & Russian troops will be super-dug in, NATO/EU in chaos. If Putin DOESN'T try before Biden takes office, he may never in his lifetime have another chance to invade NATO/EU w/out US military response
16-Let's be clear: ever since end of Cold War, getting Baltics back has been a dream for Russia, they controlled that territory for hundreds of years. Putin can easily play ethnic politics there, rile up some of the local ethnic Russians who tend to consume Russian media
17-In especially Estonia but also Latvia, discrimination against sizable Russian minorities is real. Far less so w/ Lithuania's far smaller Russian population, but Putin won't care: no evidence ethnic Russians discriminated against in Crimea & Putin claimed this anyway, attacked
18-The point is, Lithuania would likely be domino #1 if Russian troops occupied Belarus. Taking it connects Moscow via land to its Kaliningrad oblast, too. All this unthinkable without Trump undermining NATO and not guaranteeing its Article 5, especially at height of US election
19-With a Biden win, Trump's last few months would be Putin's last chance likely EVER to pull off this bold move. W/out US military involvement, other NATO countries won't attack Russian troops that invade Balitcs. They will avoid Foreign NATO troops and occupy everything else
20-Lukashenko has already essentially invited Russian troops into Belarus, & it seems Moscow just silenced its main domestic critic. Coincidence? In Russian, they are rare. We should sound the alarm NOW. If I was Putin, I'd occupy Belarus & set up possible Lithuania op
21-Then see what happens w/ U.S. election I 'm about to interfere with. If chaos/disputed election in U.S., if I'm in Belarus I prob move on Lithuania, the quickly on Latvia & Estonia (w/ false flags like in Ukraine) while U.S. is a mess. If clear Trump win, I wait & bide time
22-But w/out clear Trump win, it's a smart move. Close to zero chance Trump acts. With NATO failing to act, Putin will have effectively crippled NATO & Trump almost certainly won't use military force to come to Batlics' aid. We are in a dark day, Belarus maybe just start
23-Even just taking Lithuania & leaving other 2 alone would be like death-blow to NATO. I hope I'm totally wrong & reports of some Russian troops heading into Belarus not true. I hope even if Putin occupied Belarus, no Baltic moves. But if you're Putin, how do you pass this up???
24-Even Lithuania harboring Lukashenko's challenger, Tikhanouskaya, & supporting her/being against Lukashenko could be pretext for Russian invasion. Russia could demand Lith hand her over, just like US did to Afghanistan w/ bin Laden (prob less likely sole "reason" for invasion)
25-MAYBE Russia doesn't intervene militarily in Belarus. But hard to see how Lukashenko holds on then, & hard to see Putin being ok with this new woman Tikhanouskaya who wants to undo Union treaty with Russia. So Putin basically has to invade or lose Belarus, partly, to West
26-My own look at some of @navalny Navalny's earlier activism. He is a brave man. Let's hope he survives realcontextnews.com/the-prostitute…
