If VBM usage is high & mostly Democratic (polls put the composition of postal ballots at 70-80% Democratic right now), & ballot rejection rates are slightly higher than average, Biden could easily lose 1-2pts.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef35Cp2WkAI1p2I.png)
The average decrease in Biden's margin is just 0.6 pts, and that assumes slightly higher-than-average VBM rejection rates will carry over from the 2020 primary to the general.
The eventual deficit could also be smaller!