Covid-19 Metrics for States with Bars & Casinos OPEN vs Texas - THREAD
Many Southern States opened Bars in May & show little, if any, difference with TX, which closed bars late June.
We start with a basic image showing the similar curves of the 4 states we will analyze
1/n
Many Southern States opened Bars in May & show little, if any, difference with TX, which closed bars late June.
We start with a basic image showing the similar curves of the 4 states we will analyze
1/n
Here are full Covid-19 metrics on cases, hospitalizations and fatalities for all four states, all adjusted for population against the smallest state, OK.
Even more striking to see how similar all four states chart.
2/n
Even more striking to see how similar all four states chart.
2/n
First direct comparison is TX vs OK
Open and closed dates noted in charts. You'd expect OK and its reduced density to outperform Texas. However, the difference is substantial. Also remember in addition to bars, over 90% of OK's nearly 100 Casinos are open for business.
3/n
Open and closed dates noted in charts. You'd expect OK and its reduced density to outperform Texas. However, the difference is substantial. Also remember in addition to bars, over 90% of OK's nearly 100 Casinos are open for business.
3/n
Next up, TX vs AL
The opening or closing of bars & casinos had little effect on either states curves, which are very similar. TX performed better early on, but AL has mostly performed better late, especially fatalities.
Again, these charts are adjusted for population
4/n
The opening or closing of bars & casinos had little effect on either states curves, which are very similar. TX performed better early on, but AL has mostly performed better late, especially fatalities.
Again, these charts are adjusted for population
4/n
Final state to state comparison, TX vs SC.
Similar to AL, but more stark in how nearly identical both states have performed. Nearly mirrors of each other in most respects. Note again that these are adjusted for population and cited.
5/n
Similar to AL, but more stark in how nearly identical both states have performed. Nearly mirrors of each other in most respects. Note again that these are adjusted for population and cited.
5/n
This data shows no impact to the trajectory of C19, while closures significantly impact small businesses:
“Losing the bar…would [incur so much debt] it doesn’t feel like a real number. I worked 9 years to get this bar…I put everything I had in”
houstonchronicle.com/business/artic…
6/n
“Losing the bar…would [incur so much debt] it doesn’t feel like a real number. I worked 9 years to get this bar…I put everything I had in”
houstonchronicle.com/business/artic…
6/n
In Conclusion, this data does not support the assertion that shutting down bars has slowed the spread of Covid-19.
States with bars and casinos open have nearly identical, if not better, trends and negligible difference in Covid-19 outcomes.
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States with bars and casinos open have nearly identical, if not better, trends and negligible difference in Covid-19 outcomes.
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