This is ironic.
The EU think UK govt is so incompetent & shambolic that they need a deal just to show basic competence.
However, the UK govt is so incompetent & shambolic that they think they might as well add Brexit mishandling to their pandemic mishandling.
THREAD
The EU think UK govt is so incompetent & shambolic that they need a deal just to show basic competence.
However, the UK govt is so incompetent & shambolic that they think they might as well add Brexit mishandling to their pandemic mishandling.
THREAD
The problem is this:
1) Whereas covid-19 damage is a general economic hit, No Deal Brexit screws with people’s lives in very direct tangible ways. Like the A-level fiasco, it’s personal hurt directly attributed to govt.
No-one will assoc new red tape they hate with covid-19.
1) Whereas covid-19 damage is a general economic hit, No Deal Brexit screws with people’s lives in very direct tangible ways. Like the A-level fiasco, it’s personal hurt directly attributed to govt.
No-one will assoc new red tape they hate with covid-19.
In fact, when people have to pay insurance companies to travel, get new driving licences/ pet passports, go through painful Home Office regs for EU hires, do customs forms for small orders, see lorry parks...
I reckon it’s more likely that people will blame the whole disruption on Brexit more than coronavirus... as the *visual features* of the downturn will all be Brexit-related.
It’s much more likely that happens than people think no deal Brexit impacts are part of covid-19 impact.
It’s much more likely that happens than people think no deal Brexit impacts are part of covid-19 impact.
2) Don’t forget that we’ve taken a bigger economic hit from covid-19 than EU has.
That means when govt try to say that Brexit is just a drop in the ocean compared to covid-19, the natural thing to do is look at comparator countries (everyone hit by C-19) — we’ll look terrible.
That means when govt try to say that Brexit is just a drop in the ocean compared to covid-19, the natural thing to do is look at comparator countries (everyone hit by C-19) — we’ll look terrible.
3) A no-deal Brexit also interacts poorly with our “global Britain” pitch. Many countries want to see a stable EU-UK solution first. If Biden comes in, he’ll likely be one of those, given also his Irish-American identity, anti-Brexit stance and US concern for GFA.
4) Finally, the contingent actively wanting no deal Brexit is small.
If Govt do a deal, they somewhat pacify critics. Somewhat. If they go no deal route, then this country becomes intensely vitriolic again - and the chances of holding onto Scotland & NI also drop.
If Govt do a deal, they somewhat pacify critics. Somewhat. If they go no deal route, then this country becomes intensely vitriolic again - and the chances of holding onto Scotland & NI also drop.
5) Finally, finally - if there’s no deal... then obviously deals with Europe need to be done at some point. From science, health, education, EHIC, security, basic citizen rights. So many glaring things to campaign for.
It’s fertile ground for the pro-EU movement to resurge...
It’s fertile ground for the pro-EU movement to resurge...
...campaigners like me will be all over that. We’re veterans now. And already a consistent majority of British public think Brexit was a mistake. They are right & no deal Brexit exacerbates that. I’ll be having that and not letting go like a proper British bulldog. #LifeMission
