Let’s take an in-depth look at Kai Havertz – his strengths, weaknesses and tactical fit at Chelsea.
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Havertz’s progression since 2016-17, both in terms of actual and expected output, has been very promising. His creative metrics in particular have seen an improvement in the 2019-20 season.
He seems to be a naturally skilled finisher too, judging by his xG over-performance.
He seems to be a naturally skilled finisher too, judging by his xG over-performance.
His performance metrics such as shots and dribbles have gradually improved with time too. Development isn’t linear and he has regressed in some metrics but that is how players grow.
His penalty box touches has increased over the seasons as he has moved closer to goal.
His penalty box touches has increased over the seasons as he has moved closer to goal.
One of the biggest attractions about Havertz is his versatility. You could plug him in any one of four positions and you can expect him to do a reasonably good job.
At Chelsea, one would guess his best role might be in a 4-3-3 as a midfielder.
At Chelsea, one would guess his best role might be in a 4-3-3 as a midfielder.
Havertz’s ability to score from different regions is very encouraging too. Unlike some players who limit themselves to certain locations, Havertz has shown the capacity to finish from different locations and with different body parts.
Havertz’s shot selection is a thing to note. He does not prefer to take shots from long range and instead prefers taking shots from dangerous locations inside the box.
However, he can improve the number of shots he takes. Lampard will be a great mentor in this regard.
However, he can improve the number of shots he takes. Lampard will be a great mentor in this regard.
The types of goals Havertz scores is another positive. He can score after late runs into the box, one-on-ones, headers, far post finishes and is a strong penalty taker too. His finishing variety will no doubt make Chelsea’s attack far more unpredictable.
From a creative perspective, Havertz has strongly improved over the past 12 months. However, he is not a top-tier creator yet in terms of the quantity of chances he creates.
His assist tally is good but you get the impression it can improve further.
His assist tally is good but you get the impression it can improve further.
The location of shots created by Havertz is another indicator of his creative profile. While he is capable of playing incisive passes, don’t expect him to reach De Bruyne levels yet.
His chance creation is based on getting into dangerous locations and then playing simple passes.
His chance creation is based on getting into dangerous locations and then playing simple passes.
Havertz is obviously not perfect and he has his drawbacks. The main one is his lack of defensive activity. He has been a big fish in a small pond at Leverkusen, meaning he was not asked to contribute much defensively.
That will not be the case at Chelsea.
That will not be the case at Chelsea.
If he is to play as a midfielder in a 4-3-3, he will certainly have to become more intense in his defending. Given our style, we cannot afford to carry passengers off the ball.
However, at 21, it is something that he can learn with time and become better at.
However, at 21, it is something that he can learn with time and become better at.
Another aspect to improve is his strength on the ball. While he is tall and fast, Havertz is not the strongest and it not uncommon to see him pushed off the ball.
In the Premier League, this lack of strength will only be highlighted further. He needs to improve quickly.
In the Premier League, this lack of strength will only be highlighted further. He needs to improve quickly.
What can we expect from Havertz in his first season in the PL?
Aubameyang suffered a 27% drop in his output during his move from Germany to England across an 18-month span. Let’s take this as a reference to create realistic expectations.
Aubameyang suffered a 27% drop in his output during his move from Germany to England across an 18-month span. Let’s take this as a reference to create realistic expectations.
Side note: Pulisic’s xG/xA metrics remained broadly consistent between his final Dortmund season at first Chelsea season. However, he finished poorly at Dortmund and his finishing reverted to the mean at Chelsea, explaining the increased output.
Havertz right now is not as good as Aubameyang was when he moved. At the same, this Chelsea team is significantly better than Arsenal.
Taking both into account, a 30% drop in output for Havertz sounds like a fair expectation.
Taking both into account, a 30% drop in output for Havertz sounds like a fair expectation.
Havertz is currently a 18-20 G/A (league play only) player in Germany. Going by the drop in output that we have predicted, we can reasonably expect him to have 13-15 league G/A in his first season.
Anything more than that should be viewed a bonus.
Anything more than that should be viewed a bonus.
13-15 G/A sounds underwhelming but we’re not signing him for just one season. We’re signing him to be the cornerstone of our team for years to come.
Ideally, Havertz should adapt to the PL immediately. If he doesn’t, owing to whatever reason, we shouldn’t panic.
Ideally, Havertz should adapt to the PL immediately. If he doesn’t, owing to whatever reason, we shouldn’t panic.
Thanks for your time and patience in reading this thread. A lot of time and effort went into making this, so I would genuinely appreciate RTs, follows and feedback.
End of thread.
End of thread.
