ExpectedChelsea Profile picture
Thinking out loud about football, data and tactics.
Ed Profile picture 1 subscribed
Feb 5 69 tweets 13 min read
I’ve been thinking about the issues facing Chelsea and there is one simple answer that covers everything: CULTURE.

Culturally, the club is broken and needs to be urgently repaired. Let me tell you how in this long thread. Image What is culture?

“It simply means how people are expected to behave within a particular environment. Research indicates that when done correctly, it can offer a significant competitive advantage.”

Read this excellent article for more: trainingground.guru/articles/what-…
Dec 7, 2023 20 tweets 4 min read
One more signing, or a new managerial hire, will not fix the mess Chelsea find themselves in.

The way the club and its fans view football is fundamentally flawed. Someone like Xabi Alonso is on a different level to Pochettino, but the environment is not right for him to succeed.

Someone like Osimhen is a star striker, but the environment is not right for him to succeed.

We are not geared for success.
Aug 14, 2023 24 tweets 5 min read
Chelsea are about to spend big money on Moises Caicedo, Romeo Lavia and Lesley Ugochukwu, beating a host of big clubs to secure the three midfield starlets.

Let’s take a look at what each player brings to the table and why their skillsets are in so much demand. Image Stats are from @Eleven11Stats, whose tools I love and find immensely useful. I find their players attributes unique and having read about their methodology, find it sound.
Nov 7, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
League form is the real indicator of a team's quality, not cup runs. The fact is that we have not crossed 75 points even once since our title in 2016/17.

One freak cup run from Kante aside, we have made no mark on the PL/CL in the last 5 years. That's our recent "standards". Fans think we're still the same Chelsea of 15 years ago but we are not. We are a team that has to huff-and-puff just to get top 4. And I'm sick of sweating it out every May just to see if we'll qualify for the CL.

I'm ready to take one step back if that means taking two forward.
Nov 6, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Potter seems overawed, especially in big games. A lot of over-tinkering and a shade of passiveness in every aspect. I can see what he wants to build but he's also over-complicating.

We can give him time because this season is a write-off but he has to show signs of improving. I am sympathetic to him because he has inherited a mess, had very little training time and has seen players drop like flies. That's all mitigating factors.

At the same time, we should see real progress in the way we play and individual development by the end of the season.
Sep 9, 2022 33 tweets 7 min read
Graham Potter – A Brave New Era.

In this thread, I am going to look at why Potter to Chelsea makes a lot of sense and why he is the man we need. Image First of all, this is NOT a new situation for Potter.

When Potter took over at Brighton, he replaced a popular manager who was sacked despite good results. Not much different to what’s happening here.
Sep 8, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Hiring Potter wasn't a knee-jerk decision, as shown by the long contract we've given him.

It's easy to say Chelsea are still the same rash club we were in the past but Potter's hiring is proof that we're beginning a long-term plan. I anticipate this season being a bit rough because of circumstances - no pre-season, a ton of fixtures, the World Cup and so on.

Results will be a bit rocky and we'll experience a lot of growing pains. Be patient and accept them.
Sep 7, 2022 25 tweets 5 min read
All good things have to come to an end. Thomas Tuchel’s reign as a Chelsea manager was undoubtedly a good time but it had to end – for his benefit and ours.

I will explain in this thread where things went wrong and why we had to separate. Before I begin, I want to preface all this with the fact Tuchel is my favourite Chelsea manager of all time. I’ll always hold him close to my heart.

But I love Chelsea more than any manager and it was obvious that he wasn’t acting in our best interests anymore.
Aug 8, 2021 24 tweets 7 min read
1: Luk Who’s Back – An in-depth thread on Romelu Lukaku and what he will bring to Chelsea.

[THREAD] This thread will look at his strengths, weaknesses, how he compares to other strikers and where he does most of his damage.

Stats are from a wide range of resources including fbref and whoscored.
Jun 10, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read
Let's look at Chelsea's best performers from the 2020/21 season.

Stats from fbref.

(THREAD) Mason Mount | 22 | Midfielder:

In the span of a few months, Mase has gone from a talented-but-inconsistent youngster to one of the best midfielders in the league.

His skillset is incredibly complete and he's only getting better. End product is where he should focus next.
Jun 8, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
The presence of academy players means we don't have to sign squad players anymore. We aim only for the absolute best players now.

We've always had a lot of money but we kept spending it on average players instead of world-class ones. I'll give you an example of what we did:

In 2017, we bought Drinkwater (£35m) and Zappacosta (£25m). If we had kept Chalobah over Drinkwater, we could've spent the £60m on someone like Alex Sandro.

The more we use our academy, the better for us.
Jun 5, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Ruben Dias got dribbled past as frequently as Sadio Mane this season.

Dias: 0.54 per 90
Mane: 0.54 per 90

It feels as if the media/fans want another iconic defender to fill the void left by Van Dijk's injury. Dias isn't that. For what it's worth, City's goals conceded and xG conceded improved by roughly 10%.

Dias is a good defender, don't get me wrong, but that's all he is. A good defender. The media need to stop forcing this narrative that he's the best player in the league down our throats.
Jan 26, 2021 18 tweets 5 min read
A thread on Thomas Tuchel - As described by himself and those who have worked with him.

This should be helpful to those who are unfamiliar with his methods and will hopefully help clear a few misconceptions. Tuchel on his style of play — Creating a fundamental framework within which all players operate while also giving them the freedom to come up with their own solutions.

Sep 16, 2020 11 tweets 2 min read
A thread containing a few thoughts on Tammy Abraham - the forgotten man among Chelsea's spending revolution. The way football twitter rates Tammy Abraham is the biggest example of the way people put aesthetics/stereotype over efficiency.

Tammy Abraham doesn't "look" good to the untrained eye but he is among the best CFs in his age group.
Sep 8, 2020 19 tweets 5 min read
Introducing Edouard Mendy – A thread on his strengths, weaknesses, areas to improve and fit at Chelsea. The thread will mainly focus on three keepers – Alphonse Areola, Mike Maignan and Kepa Arrizabalaga - along with Edouard Mendy.

Data for Areola is from the 2018-19 season because he didn’t play enough in 19-20.

Data has been taken from the amazing people at @fbref.
Aug 24, 2020 18 tweets 5 min read
Let’s take an in-depth look at Kai Havertz – his strengths, weaknesses and tactical fit at Chelsea.

(THREAD) Havertz’s progression since 2016-17, both in terms of actual and expected output, has been very promising. His creative metrics in particular have seen an improvement in the 2019-20 season.

He seems to be a naturally skilled finisher too, judging by his xG over-performance.
Aug 12, 2020 14 tweets 4 min read
Amidst all the hype for Werner and Havertz, let’s not forget how good Hakim Ziyech is. Chelsea are signing one of Europe’s best creators for just £35m.

Ziyech’s variety of passes and output is absurdly good, even accounting for the Dutch league. Bonkers.

(THREAD) Looking at the chart, one thing stands out – Ziyech is a master at the whipped pass from the right channel.

If Werner and Pulisic make the right runs, they will feast with Ziyech supplying them. Add in Reece James’ crossing from RB and it could be something special.
Jul 27, 2020 15 tweets 3 min read
The season is finally over and Chelsea have made top 4. Let’s chart our progress over the past 12 months and compare it to last season to see how much the team has improved. (THREAD) First up, our basic numbers. Lampard lost Eden Hazard, one of the 5 best players on the planet when he left Chelsea, and replaced him with a bunch of under-21 players.

The result? Chelsea have somehow become even better going forward. 76.23 xG is an absolutely *elite* tally.
Apr 21, 2020 25 tweets 14 min read
Let's take a detailed, comprehensive look at under-24 strikers from the top 5 leagues. This study considers both conventional centre forwards as well as players who switch between the wings and the central "9" role.

Data thanks to the brilliant @fbref as always! (THREAD) Image Output is fundamental for any young striker and the sustainability of a striker's output can be measured in xG and xA. The graph shows us that Haaland and Gabriel Jesus have superb movement while Werner is a considerable all-round threat. #BVB #MCFC #RBL Image