Thread by @ExpectedChelsea

The season is finally over and Chelsea have made top 4. Let’s chart our progress over the past 12 months and compare it to last season to see how much the team has improved. (THREAD)

First up, our basic numbers. Lampard lost Eden Hazard, one of the 5 best players on the planet when he left Chelsea, and replaced him with a bunch of under-21 players.

The result? Chelsea have somehow become even better going forward. 76.23 xG is an absolutely *elite* tally.

Chelsea’s xG of 76.23 was the third highest in the league behind usual suspects Liverpool and Man City.

This is the highest xG Chelsea have recorded in a single season since xG became available (in 2014-15) and the first time Chelsea have crossed 70 xG.

Source: understat

Defensively, Chelsea weren’t solid by any means but they weren’t also as bad as 54 goals conceded suggests. The truth is somewhere in between.

Lampard swapped the defensive solidity Chelsea had last season for attacking impetus and it was a fair gamble.

So why did Chelsea struggle despite their solid numbers? Bad finishing, a historically bad goalkeeper and some horrible luck all had their part to play.

Chelsea are unlikely to be this unlucky next season, touchwood. Naturally, things will dramatically improve at both ends.

Let’s move on to advanced metrics. A quick look at the numbers suggests that Chelsea are better at pressing this season than they were last season.

They are also far more adventurous going forward without depending on a single player.

Sarri’s main strategy was to keep hold of the ball as much as possible in the hope Eden Hazard (31 G+As) did something magical. Nothing wrong with it, of course.

Without Hazard, Lampard had to do something different and he opted for a more adventurous approach.

Sarri’s sterile possession strategy had the bonus of defensive solidity. To put it in simple terms, opponents cannot score if they do not have the ball.

While Lampard’s Chelsea did have a lot of the ball, they were more direct. This carries with it a set of pros and cons.

While Lampard’s Chelsea are more unpredictable in attack, the team is also more vulnerable in difference. This trade-off is reflected in the higher quality of both chances created and chances conceded.

Obviously, no Chelsea analysis can go without looking at the team’s biggest problem position – goalkeeper.

Chelsea’s goalkeepers were bad last season and have been outright terrible this season.

As explained earlier, Chelsea have conceded slightly higher quality chances this season. But also, Chelsea benefited from weak opponent finishing last season. This is reflected in the post-shot xG conceded tally being lower than the actual xG conceded tally.

One would think that with a more commanding and a more agile goalkeeper, Chelsea will naturally improve defensively even with the current set of defenders. Most goalkeepers offer a strong upgrade on Kepa and Caballero.

Onana, Pope, Maignan, choose your pick.

Next season, Chelsea can reasonably aim for 80 points with a new GK, Havertz, a new LB, possibly a new CB and a new defensive midfielder.

This season, Chelsea played like a 75 points team even though bad luck and variance meant it was not seen in the table.

To conclude, Lampard has done a terrific job in his first season. The way the team performed was above everyone’s expectations.

However, being Chelsea, it is not right to settle for another top 4 fight. The aim next season must be to cement the 3rd spot in the table.

Whatever your religious orientation, please do take a second to pray that the football Gods are kinder to us next season. Our xG underperformance this season, at both ends, was outright ridiculous.

Thanks for reading. If you have come this far, please be kind enough to RT. :-)