@rewiringamerica wants a wartime-like effort to transform quickly enough to RE, low emission agriculture and circular material use.

But see the bulge? In Japan / Germany it's war industry, in US NewDeal and war. But UK avoided the peak by rationing everything (not merely fuel). Image
A 10yr NON-profit system hiatus, rations and home guarantees - in an initial alliance of states, soon joined by almost all -
not only avoids a lethal🌍peak, @rewiringamerica, but also unrest globally, workers union disputes, existential fears, and speeds up the transformation. Image
Via rations for everybody for everything for 10yrs like UK did with(!) population consent,

high consumption stops: 🐄✈️and extraction, manufacturing, transport from one production step to the next. A reduction of ≥ 35% in richer countries;
From 30Gt to 19Gt in 🟦🟥 at avg 5tpc Image
In democracies, majorities suffice. No need for the consent of the rich 20% in a society should they not agree to rations. It's toughest for them, from their perspective..true. But global heating is worse for most people than letting go off getting groceries by car or✈️to Aspen🤷‍♀️ ImageImageImage
Whats needed is a wartime-like effort in education re budget and impacts at 1.5-3C to form political will and majorities for rations&non-profit.
Billboards in public spaces to be seen daily not only once a week, and seen by all, not only @guardian readers:ImageImageImageImage
I planned the non-profit system hiatus on a beermat: an alliance of states begins in 2021, almost all others join soon, US last by 2027 when they realise GreenDeal kicks them to 4˚C.
CO2-only emissions from 2019 - 2030 then are 300Gt, by 2030 global CO2 is 10Gt/a.
If you want to you can read more here threadreaderapp.com/thread/1286146… the thread started in a discussion about carbon rationing - which doesn't fit the requirements. Also, I say a bit about why cars must go, too. @rewiringamerica says, everybody can get an EV. But that's not sustainable.
COVID related: In deep crises, fascist nationalist far-right grab power and ditch climate policy; eg 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇮🇳🇧🇷🇭🇺🇮🇹...
IF that happens after Covid or weather disasters🔥🌍🔥
It's important for people in crises to experience solidarity as food on their plates
This piece by @AndrewSimms_uk is of interest re how the UK managed to get consent from all the population for rations from 1939 - 1956. rapidtransition.org/stories/when-e…
We'll repeat the side effect of a healthier population: in rich states bc diet is healthier, in poor bc they get more🍲.
And if societies want they can debate and prepare system change for after the system hiatus.

Debate and setting in motion takes time. Too long to wait for, now. But when the system is already halted during the hiatus, societies can debate and easier change what needs change.
This growing alliance of states not only tackles the technical side of the 6 revolutions, energy, agriculture, transport, raw material use, heating/cooling, urban design,

it fosters that needed sense of hope and global solidarity🖖💪; both a dam against cancerous fascist spread

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More from @anlomedad

Jul 22, 2022
Thoughts about after the civilisation implosion.

Even renaissance societies relied on extraction, international trade and specialisation.
But rekindled societies after the collapse only have non-useful know-how at first, resulting in caveman-level of useful sophistication
– *and* again rely on fossil and wood fuel for even the most basic tasks.

I agree with Robert Harris' "Second Sleep" where only population outside metropolitan areas survive the famine and violence. How could we today help the survivors to rekindle a *sustainable* organisation?
Which cultures r likely to rekindle societal organisation beyond tribes? IMO non-urban S-America. How to bolster those future attempts today, paper knowledge caches? How to curate that knowledge for its likely usefulness? "When there's no pharma industry: medicine for dummies"...
Read 13 tweets
Jul 3, 2022
Do you see the near-term risk for civilisation collapse? Or did it merely seem like a form of fear-porn when Prof Steffen wrote about it in 2019?

Today I realised how I didn't see it earlier, why it took another 3 yrs odyssey spent on hard-sci & boneless ballads on degrowth.
The soft-sci troubadours sing about degrowth and doughnuts. Ballads of soft "transitions" to utopia. Risk awareness can't grow because these ballads are about a far-away time, not heeding the requirements of today's breeched planetary boundaries/budget.
I spent lotsa time deciphering the climate of the Pliocene or MIS11 and listening to ballads of "transitions" to utopia.
Assuming that this surely was what I need to know.
But neither physicists nor troubadours cover what would have raised my risk-awareness to reality-levels.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 3, 2022
Intriguing.
A long drought prevailed AD 500ff in East Mediterranean & Arab Peninsula. Might've been in more regions but these I know of.

The 1st plague epidemic from rat fleas began in Kush/Egypt 541-549 and culled MENA & Europe.

Long droughts cause (death, war and) migration..
Did (the aftermath of) the drought fuel epidemic spread? Likely. Drought weakens states, workers flee, wars ensue, armies carry🪲everywhere.

Did Kush experience drought, too? Was the (onset of the) pandemic even caused by rats' or human behaviour that was influenced by drought? Image
What human or rat behaviour would trigger rat fleas to jump and infect humans?
I'd imagine you need lots of rats to increase the chances of a few infected fleas to jump. These rats need food and also be brave enough to run around in the immediate vicinity of humans.
Hm.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 2, 2022
Intriguing is that Chile's citizens turned out to be the most risk-aware in this international Facebook survey. Of its 19mio citizens, 1094 took part in the survey and 60-70% know they'll be harmed personally by climate change.
This is the level of awareness we need!

How come?
The survey was conducted in Mar-Apr 2022, ~6 months after election and 1 month after inauguration of new left govt. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Chil…
I don't know anything of the talking points during their election. The only thing I know is, they now have a cli-sci as new EP secretary. Image
It might be that election campaigns were based on climate by all candidates and that this has in turn heightened the climate-awareness and the so important risk-awareness so much so that 60-70% rightly assume personal harm from climate change.
2 more awareness-factors could be
Read 12 tweets
Jun 28, 2022
@UTneighbourofET @micha_bloss @MelnykAndrij @sven_giegold @AndrewSimms_uk Im Sept kommt Ulrike Herrmanns Buch dazu raus. Weiß nicht, ob sie das Wie skizziert oder nur das Warum. Es geht über Triage Economy + Rationen für allEs.

Ich habe gestern Forschungsgeld beantragt😎für die Analyse des Wie und des wieviel CO2 es kostet😁
@UTneighbourofET @micha_bloss @MelnykAndrij @sven_giegold @AndrewSimms_uk @drmihai78 hatte jetzt schon 2 Events, wo er in einer Talkrunde als Zuschauer mit seiner Frage drangenommen wurde, was die Gäste denn zu Rationen denken. Der Typ bei Phönix meinte dann, dass er dazu mal ne Sendung machen will.

Und Lanz hat auch schon zu Herrmann dasselbe gesagt.
@UTneighbourofET @micha_bloss @MelnykAndrij @sven_giegold @AndrewSimms_uk @drmihai78 Es werden 2 Sendunden nach dem Motto "nett, aber nicht durchsetzbar" werden.Sind ja Redakteure, die die Dramaturgie bestimmen & die haben auf Rationen 0 Bock. So klimadoof wie Polit- u WirtschaftsJournos sich verhalten, is das klar.

Egal. Wenn Bürger drüber reden wird's kommen🖖
Read 11 tweets
Jun 28, 2022
Impressive.
...
I think.
Really.
But if you're like me & want to know the underlying "model narratives", (that's how modellers call their policy recommendations buried in their models) that reduce demand, it's disappointing. Meaning I can't gauge sufficiency nor practicability
The authors do say in their "conclusions" that future research is needed to put the naked numbers into policy practice – but ask yourself: if they didn't decide which policies should be enacted (the "model narratives"), then how could they calculate energy requirements at all?
Anyway. So the authors did enact policies and then calculated that their best scenario of 4 can reduce end energy demand from 2020 lvl by 52% for UK.

Same reduction potential is named in German & global studies just by moving to RE, tho.
Also: 8% nature NET is unacceptable.
Read 6 tweets

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