@rewiringamerica wants a wartime-like effort to transform quickly enough to RE, low emission agriculture and circular material use.
But see the bulge? In Japan / Germany it's war industry, in US NewDeal and war. But UK avoided the peak by rationing everything (not merely fuel).
A 10yr NON-profit system hiatus, rations and home guarantees - in an initial alliance of states, soon joined by almost all -
not only avoids a lethal🌍peak, @rewiringamerica, but also unrest globally, workers union disputes, existential fears, and speeds up the transformation.
Via rations for everybody for everything for 10yrs like UK did with(!) population consent,
high consumption stops: 🐄✈️and extraction, manufacturing, transport from one production step to the next. A reduction of ≥ 35% in richer countries;
From 30Gt to 19Gt in 🟦🟥 at avg 5tpc
In democracies, majorities suffice. No need for the consent of the rich 20% in a society should they not agree to rations. It's toughest for them, from their perspective..true. But global heating is worse for most people than letting go off getting groceries by car or✈️to Aspen🤷♀️
Whats needed is a wartime-like effort in education re budget and impacts at 1.5-3C to form political will and majorities for rations&non-profit.
Billboards in public spaces to be seen daily not only once a week, and seen by all, not only @guardian readers:
I planned the non-profit system hiatus on a beermat: an alliance of states begins in 2021, almost all others join soon, US last by 2027 when they realise GreenDeal kicks them to 4˚C.
CO2-only emissions from 2019 - 2030 then are 300Gt, by 2030 global CO2 is 10Gt/a.
If you want to you can read more here threadreaderapp.com/thread/1286146… the thread started in a discussion about carbon rationing - which doesn't fit the requirements. Also, I say a bit about why cars must go, too. @rewiringamerica says, everybody can get an EV. But that's not sustainable.
In deep crises, fascist nationalist far-right grab power and ditch climate policy; eg 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇮🇳🇧🇷🇭🇺🇮🇹...
IF that happens after Covid or weather disasters🔥🌍🔥
It's important for people in crises to experience solidarity as food on their plates
This piece by @AndrewSimms_uk is of interest re how the UK managed to get consent from all the population for rations from 1939 - 1956. rapidtransition.org/stories/when-e…
We'll repeat the side effect of a healthier population: in rich states bc diet is healthier, in poor bc they get more🍲.
And if societies want they can debate and prepare system change for after the system hiatus.
Debate and setting in motion takes time. Too long to wait for, now. But when the system is already halted during the hiatus, societies can debate and easier change what needs change.
This growing alliance of states not only tackles the technical side of the 6 revolutions, energy, agriculture, transport, raw material use, heating/cooling, urban design,
it fosters that needed sense of hope and global solidarity🖖💪; both a dam against cancerous fascist spread
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@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 I get your psych. thinking. But. Sit down and sketch a project plan with milestones and deadlines for keeping tech-civilisation afloat. Don't forget culture change toward solidarity: You'll find that only today's decision makers in econ & politics still ⏩
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 can change our trajectory on time=in budget. With "today's decision makers" I really mean today's. So it doesn't matter a lot if non-decision-makers get depressed [by the truth]. It's not in their hands anymore, anyway. Covid saw to that. (That's how close we are to deadlines!)⏩
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 On the other hand: realizing the truth in the big likelihood of a total crash soon frees up resources for also realizing what can be done today to help crash survivors. It's not the "end of the world" when tech-civilisation ends. People & rural communities can prepare but need⏩
Even renaissance societies relied on extraction, international trade and specialisation.
But rekindled societies after the collapse only have non-useful know-how at first, resulting in caveman-level of useful sophistication
– *and* again rely on fossil and wood fuel for even the most basic tasks.
I agree with Robert Harris' "Second Sleep" where only population outside metropolitan areas survive the famine and violence. How could we today help the survivors to rekindle a *sustainable* organisation?
Which cultures r likely to rekindle societal organisation beyond tribes? IMO non-urban S-America. How to bolster those future attempts today, paper knowledge caches? How to curate that knowledge for its likely usefulness? "When there's no pharma industry: medicine for dummies"...
The soft-sci troubadours sing about degrowth and doughnuts. Ballads of soft "transitions" to utopia. Risk awareness can't grow because these ballads are about a far-away time, not heeding the requirements of today's breeched planetary boundaries/budget.
I spent lotsa time deciphering the climate of the Pliocene or MIS11 and listening to ballads of "transitions" to utopia.
Assuming that this surely was what I need to know.
But neither physicists nor troubadours cover what would have raised my risk-awareness to reality-levels.
Intriguing.
A long drought prevailed AD 500ff in East Mediterranean & Arab Peninsula. Might've been in more regions but these I know of.
The 1st plague epidemic from rat fleas began in Kush/Egypt 541-549 and culled MENA & Europe.
Long droughts cause (death, war and) migration..
Did (the aftermath of) the drought fuel epidemic spread? Likely. Drought weakens states, workers flee, wars ensue, armies carry🪲everywhere.
Did Kush experience drought, too? Was the (onset of the) pandemic even caused by rats' or human behaviour that was influenced by drought?
What human or rat behaviour would trigger rat fleas to jump and infect humans?
I'd imagine you need lots of rats to increase the chances of a few infected fleas to jump. These rats need food and also be brave enough to run around in the immediate vicinity of humans.
Hm.
Intriguing is that Chile's citizens turned out to be the most risk-aware in this international Facebook survey. Of its 19mio citizens, 1094 took part in the survey and 60-70% know they'll be harmed personally by climate change.
This is the level of awareness we need!
The survey was conducted in Mar-Apr 2022, ~6 months after election and 1 month after inauguration of new left govt. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Chil…
I don't know anything of the talking points during their election. The only thing I know is, they now have a cli-sci as new EP secretary.
It might be that election campaigns were based on climate by all candidates and that this has in turn heightened the climate-awareness and the so important risk-awareness so much so that 60-70% rightly assume personal harm from climate change.
2 more awareness-factors could be