Thread by @anlomedad

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady I don't hate it. It can work with an IPCC budget for 2˚C, eg 2000Gt.

But it can't work with what we can still achieve: what I call "a near 1.5˚C" budget. And I will continue spreading my idea until economists and political scientists finally pick it up and and flesh it out.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady It's also with rations -for everything, food, clothes, cooking pans. In an alliance of willing states. For 10, maybe 15 years. Like in UK 1939-56. But non-profit.
Non-profit is faster for what we need to do now. For-profit has too many dependencies slowing down the overhaul.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Rations for everything and non-profit (ie no one gets a salary or makes profits manufacturing things) also reduce hyper-consumerism of the middle and upper income groups to <4t/a in the first stage where fossil fuel still provides energy. Leading to reduction of >30% in one go.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady But rations for everything and non-profit also buffer the inevitable industry closures and job losses resulting from less consumerism. Ppl won't experience existential fear, states won't rely on taxes, won't have to keep social services like pensions or unemployment benefit going

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The state alliance provides for the people and also what's necessary for the overhaul, the 6 synchronous revolutions:
Energy, raw material use, agriculture, heating, #equity and shipping and public transport.

Cars must go, too, don't fit into a manageable climate.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Cars in societies like Germany where car industry used to be the motor of the economy are a big obstacle the overhaul within a tight CO2e budget. All state services depend on cars, ie the taxes. Pensions, schools, police...The 10yr non-profit system hiatus breaks that dependency.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Cars cause a rat's tail of critical damage.
LUC
single family🏠(raw material use)
at the edge of wood (biodiversity)
50km commute (energy & material)
tyre ruboff (groundwater&ocean)
...
A new car incurs >33yrs of 1.5C CO2 budgets and 15yrs of not adopting sustainable lifestyles

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Sealing soil for suburban sprawl increases flood risk during extreme downpours.
Exporting cars to the growing middle class in🇮🇳🇧🇷or means killing pristine biodiversity, makes ppl &society addicted like us.
1 car sits 1-2 ppl and uses 1-3t of materials.
1 bus sits > 16 ppl for 9t

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Raw material use has to change back into sustainable proportion: 50Gt/yr, including 20Gt biomass is sustainable. mdpi.com/2079-9276/8/3/… (ATM, the human world (mostly rich states, ofc) use 97Gt and 25Gt biomass.)
Hence, reorganising life to low mobility/energy/material is req'ed

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady That change into sustainable production and life organisation takes too long or fails completely if it has to fit for-profit dependencies of companies and individuals.

But a 10yr non-profit system hiatus enables employees and entrepreneurs to make changes w/o existential fears.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The 10yr system hiatus allows to establish accounting schemes for raw material use & GHG. And to debate a likely system change in participating societies which can be adopted after the hiatus, shd they so choose.

Waiting for the debate to finish now takes too long/too much CO2.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady This table of social & biophysical indicators (needs amendment ofc, eg $1.90 or b-p indicators are for 2C) is a guide where we go. Doesn't have to be all done & dusted in 10yrs, but the basis must have been established so that drifting back into unsustainability is impossible.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady After the hiatus, new things can't be introduced on a whim. A new product has to meet sustainability reqs. Is the material use sustainable for the likely number produced? Does it create undesirable feedbacks? For the damage it incurs, does it serve common good enough?
(🚗🏠❌)

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady ATM, all of us don't have the req'ed intuition to produce & use within invisible planetary boundaries. Generation Greta will educate a new world (while always remembering how it used to be. Tough!)In ~2 generations, cultural intuition has developed to make accounting superfluous.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady What our lives are like within planetary boundaries, think Costa Rica or Cuba.
Frugal from our perspective.
Tough. An inevitable feeling of loss for us who grew up in the illusion of boundless consumerism
But ingenuity in material &energy use will enhance living standards again

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady For-profit dynamics can't make the req change quick enough. Attempts to reduce raw material use and to enhance energy efficiency mostly led to industry moving to where environmental laws don't exist. So societies now simply import what they used to produce in their own country.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady I did a back-of-the-envelope model for emissions under non-profit and rations. Beginning 2021 with a few EU states and China, US joins last by 2027,

CO2 from 2019-2030 is 300Gt and world CO2/year 10Gt by 2030.

It's not within 1.5C budget. But it's the best we can hope for to

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady really tackle all 6 revolutions at the same time and in a meaningful, controlled manner towards science based societal organisations within planetary boundaries.

Which aspects/dependencies need to be heeded, which system to be decarbonized first to best stretch the budget?

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady 🤷‍♀️Economists so far haven't done their job to scientifically cover ALL possible pathways, including non-profit in an alliance of states. The saviour for neoclassics is CO2 price - but what budget did they apply to their thinking, 2C??? And they unscientifically ruled out Verboten

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Other economists so far have sung ballads of green growth and common good but omitted the nitty gritty how to get there. How to untangle our economies from dependencies fast enough. How to get pension funds or states' tax income away from [shares in] fossil fuel and car industry.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady If economists were computer admins and our societies company networks infested w/ a CO2 virus, here's how our economist admins work:
while singing ballads of a virus-free network by 2050, clean 1 node once in a while, reconnect it to the infested network so dependencies grow back

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The ballads of a CO2-free future forget: new💻go into the network every day, create new virus/CO2-dependencies that are designed to last 15-30yrs and which instil desire in other ppl to also get such things.
Econs have no grasp of psychologies, the time/budget, the hands-on job🤷‍♀️

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Don't they have a floor plan of our society? A map of the company network, a asset list of computer and server services that need to be cleaned off the virus?

Don't they see the urgency of staying WELL below 2C? And don't they know how little time is left for that to happen?🤷‍♀️

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady So. IMO, economists failed to do their job properly. They're still misinforming electorate & politicians (&have been for 25yrs!)
If I were an employee in the company infected by our CO2 virus, I would suggest kicking economist admins out for retraining by employment agency.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Anyway. My non-profit system hiatus with rations for everything for all for near 1.5C.

In the decade ahead, with a sped-up spiral of weather extremes and Covid fallout, rations ensure food, peace & climate policy isn't ditched by far-right powergrabbing sociopaths after unrests

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Here's rapidtransition.org/stories/when-e… how UK communicated the necessity to create consent among the ppl when they changed the economy into Kriegswirtschaft and introduced rations.
Europe and China have living memory of rations. Africa& S-America also gain a LOT. And all gain: near 1.5C.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady We only need a majority in participating states.
Spread the idea. Grow the desire by #TellTheTruth wrt fallouts of 1.5C, 2C, 3C and what's actually req'ed to get near 1.5C.

Only the majority is needed. We DON'T need the rich 20% in each nation who'll be most opposed to it.🖖💪

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady There are voices, also among climate scientists that say, only within the current system, incl for-profit dynamics, do we have a chance at staying below 2C.
They have no proof for their assumption. And knowing psychologies of current actors forbids trying.
Why? Stay tuned...

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Paris can't be kept in the existing framework of meshed profit dependencies and dynamics, and social and individual psychologies and behavioural patterns. The attempt would fail. The premise/hope to convince current actors to voluntarily half their emissions by 2030 has no basis.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady It omits the synchronous, inter-dependent 6 revolutions (or 7, let's not forget decarbonizing the armies!) Wasting the decade to voluntary efficiency dynamics ie "Might green be cheaper?"not only fails in speed, it also doesn't ensure our lives to become Paris-compatible(eg cars)

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The premise it would work in current dynamics is not science based. We have 26yrs of proof to the contrary & @exponentialroad had no success since 2017. OTOH, rations in EU &🇨🇳are in living memory. It is historically proven that & how. And consent can be garnered, see UK 1939-56.

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad If climate-aware ppl decide in 2020 to tackle the virus, or the 6 revolutions (or 7... the armies!!) within current dynamics, their decision in truth leads to breaking Paris.

But we can STILL keep Paris. So I implore you, fellow climate activist, to REALLY think things through!

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad @threadreaderapp unroll

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad Bummer. Now the thread doesn't contain the beginning of the Twitter conversation. Where I explain why carbon rationing can't work. So. I'll add it here by copy&paste.

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1285865641480728576

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad Why is sudden poverty globally of concern to us? Not only out of compassion and moral considerations. But also:

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1285866848383311879

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1285867775479685121

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1285869016859516929

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad And selling carbon rations -or other GHG or raw material use and factors of biophysical planetary boundaries from the poor to the rich is also not an reality option. There simply is no allowance left to sell. It's difficult to get your head around, I know.

https://twitter.com/anlomedad/status/1285883138258984962

@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad @threadreaderapp unroll