@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady I don't hate it. It can work with an IPCC budget for 2˚C, eg 2000Gt.

But it can't work with what we can still achieve: what I call "a near 1.5˚C" budget. And I will continue spreading my idea until economists and political scientists finally pick it up and and flesh it out.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady It's also with rations -for everything, food, clothes, cooking pans. In an alliance of willing states. For 10, maybe 15 years. Like in UK 1939-56. But non-profit.
Non-profit is faster for what we need to do now. For-profit has too many dependencies slowing down the overhaul.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Rations for everything and non-profit (ie no one gets a salary or makes profits manufacturing things) also reduce hyper-consumerism of the middle and upper income groups to <4t/a in the first stage where fossil fuel still provides energy. Leading to reduction of >30% in one go.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady But rations for everything and non-profit also buffer the inevitable industry closures and job losses resulting from less consumerism. Ppl won't experience existential fear, states won't rely on taxes, won't have to keep social services like pensions or unemployment benefit going
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The state alliance provides for the people and also what's necessary for the overhaul, the 6 synchronous revolutions:
Energy, raw material use, agriculture, heating, #equity and shipping and public transport.

Cars must go, too, don't fit into a manageable climate.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Cars in societies like Germany where car industry used to be the motor of the economy are a big obstacle the overhaul within a tight CO2e budget. All state services depend on cars, ie the taxes. Pensions, schools, police...The 10yr non-profit system hiatus breaks that dependency. Image
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Cars cause a rat's tail of critical damage.
LUC
single family🏠(raw material use)
at the edge of wood (biodiversity)
50km commute (energy & material)
tyre ruboff (groundwater&ocean)
...
A new car incurs >33yrs of 1.5C CO2 budgets and 15yrs of not adopting sustainable lifestyles
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Sealing soil for suburban sprawl increases flood risk during extreme downpours.
Exporting cars to the growing middle class in🇮🇳🇧🇷or means killing pristine biodiversity, makes ppl &society addicted like us.
1 car sits 1-2 ppl and uses 1-3t of materials.
1 bus sits > 16 ppl for 9t
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Raw material use has to change back into sustainable proportion: 50Gt/yr, including 20Gt biomass is sustainable. mdpi.com/2079-9276/8/3/… (ATM, the human world (mostly rich states, ofc) use 97Gt and 25Gt biomass.)
Hence, reorganising life to low mobility/energy/material is req'ed
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady That change into sustainable production and life organisation takes too long or fails completely if it has to fit for-profit dependencies of companies and individuals.

But a 10yr non-profit system hiatus enables employees and entrepreneurs to make changes w/o existential fears.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The 10yr system hiatus allows to establish accounting schemes for raw material use & GHG. And to debate a likely system change in participating societies which can be adopted after the hiatus, shd they so choose.

Waiting for the debate to finish now takes too long/too much CO2.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady This table of social & biophysical indicators (needs amendment ofc, eg $1.90 or b-p indicators are for 2C) is a guide where we go. Doesn't have to be all done & dusted in 10yrs, but the basis must have been established so that drifting back into unsustainability is impossible. Image
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady After the hiatus, new things can't be introduced on a whim. A new product has to meet sustainability reqs. Is the material use sustainable for the likely number produced? Does it create undesirable feedbacks? For the damage it incurs, does it serve common good enough?
(🚗🏠❌)
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady ATM, all of us don't have the req'ed intuition to produce & use within invisible planetary boundaries. Generation Greta will educate a new world (while always remembering how it used to be. Tough!)In ~2 generations, cultural intuition has developed to make accounting superfluous.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady What our lives are like within planetary boundaries, think Costa Rica or Cuba.
Frugal from our perspective.
Tough. An inevitable feeling of loss for us who grew up in the illusion of boundless consumerism
But ingenuity in material &energy use will enhance living standards again Image
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady For-profit dynamics can't make the req change quick enough. Attempts to reduce raw material use and to enhance energy efficiency mostly led to industry moving to where environmental laws don't exist. So societies now simply import what they used to produce in their own country.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady I did a back-of-the-envelope model for emissions under non-profit and rations. Beginning 2021 with a few EU states and China, US joins last by 2027,

CO2 from 2019-2030 is 300Gt and world CO2/year 10Gt by 2030.

It's not within 1.5C budget. But it's the best we can hope for to
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady really tackle all 6 revolutions at the same time and in a meaningful, controlled manner towards science based societal organisations within planetary boundaries.

Which aspects/dependencies need to be heeded, which system to be decarbonized first to best stretch the budget?
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady 🤷‍♀️Economists so far haven't done their job to scientifically cover ALL possible pathways, including non-profit in an alliance of states. The saviour for neoclassics is CO2 price - but what budget did they apply to their thinking, 2C??? And they unscientifically ruled out Verboten
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Other economists so far have sung ballads of green growth and common good but omitted the nitty gritty how to get there. How to untangle our economies from dependencies fast enough. How to get pension funds or states' tax income away from [shares in] fossil fuel and car industry.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady If economists were computer admins and our societies company networks infested w/ a CO2 virus, here's how our economist admins work:
while singing ballads of a virus-free network by 2050, clean 1 node once in a while, reconnect it to the infested network so dependencies grow back
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The ballads of a CO2-free future forget: new💻go into the network every day, create new virus/CO2-dependencies that are designed to last 15-30yrs and which instil desire in other ppl to also get such things.
Econs have no grasp of psychologies, the time/budget, the hands-on job🤷‍♀️
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Don't they have a floor plan of our society? A map of the company network, a asset list of computer and server services that need to be cleaned off the virus?

Don't they see the urgency of staying WELL below 2C? And don't they know how little time is left for that to happen?🤷‍♀️
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady So. IMO, economists failed to do their job properly. They're still misinforming electorate & politicians (&have been for 25yrs!)
If I were an employee in the company infected by our CO2 virus, I would suggest kicking economist admins out for retraining by employment agency.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Anyway. My non-profit system hiatus with rations for everything for all for near 1.5C.

In the decade ahead, with a sped-up spiral of weather extremes and Covid fallout, rations ensure food, peace & climate policy isn't ditched by far-right powergrabbing sociopaths after unrests
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Here's rapidtransition.org/stories/when-e… how UK communicated the necessity to create consent among the ppl when they changed the economy into Kriegswirtschaft and introduced rations.
Europe and China have living memory of rations. Africa& S-America also gain a LOT. And all gain: near 1.5C.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady We only need a majority in participating states.
Spread the idea. Grow the desire by #TellTheTruth wrt fallouts of 1.5C, 2C, 3C and what's actually req'ed to get near 1.5C.

Only the majority is needed. We DON'T need the rich 20% in each nation who'll be most opposed to it.🖖💪
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady There are voices, also among climate scientists that say, only within the current system, incl for-profit dynamics, do we have a chance at staying below 2C.
They have no proof for their assumption. And knowing psychologies of current actors forbids trying.
Why? Stay tuned...
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady Paris can't be kept in the existing framework of meshed profit dependencies and dynamics, and social and individual psychologies and behavioural patterns. The attempt would fail. The premise/hope to convince current actors to voluntarily half their emissions by 2030 has no basis.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady It omits the synchronous, inter-dependent 6 revolutions (or 7, let's not forget decarbonizing the armies!) Wasting the decade to voluntary efficiency dynamics ie "Might green be cheaper?"not only fails in speed, it also doesn't ensure our lives to become Paris-compatible(eg cars)
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady The premise it would work in current dynamics is not science based. We have 26yrs of proof to the contrary & @exponentialroad had no success since 2017. OTOH, rations in EU &🇨🇳are in living memory. It is historically proven that & how. And consent can be garnered, see UK 1939-56.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad If climate-aware ppl decide in 2020 to tackle the virus, or the 6 revolutions (or 7... the armies!!) within current dynamics, their decision in truth leads to breaking Paris.

But we can STILL keep Paris. So I implore you, fellow climate activist, to REALLY think things through!
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad Bummer. Now the thread doesn't contain the beginning of the Twitter conversation. Where I explain why carbon rationing can't work. So. I'll add it here by copy&paste.
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad Why is sudden poverty globally of concern to us? Not only out of compassion and moral considerations. But also:
@carbonwatchdog @Timlagor @Jumpsteady @exponentialroad And selling carbon rations -or other GHG or raw material use and factors of biophysical planetary boundaries from the poor to the rich is also not an reality option. There simply is no allowance left to sell. It's difficult to get your head around, I know.

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More from @anlomedad

Jul 21
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 I get your psych. thinking. But. Sit down and sketch a project plan with milestones and deadlines for keeping tech-civilisation afloat. Don't forget culture change toward solidarity: You'll find that only today's decision makers in econ & politics still ⏩
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 can change our trajectory on time=in budget. With "today's decision makers" I really mean today's. So it doesn't matter a lot if non-decision-makers get depressed [by the truth]. It's not in their hands anymore, anyway. Covid saw to that. (That's how close we are to deadlines!)⏩
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 On the other hand: realizing the truth in the big likelihood of a total crash soon frees up resources for also realizing what can be done today to help crash survivors. It's not the "end of the world" when tech-civilisation ends. People & rural communities can prepare but need⏩
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
Thoughts about after the civilisation implosion.

Even renaissance societies relied on extraction, international trade and specialisation.
But rekindled societies after the collapse only have non-useful know-how at first, resulting in caveman-level of useful sophistication
– *and* again rely on fossil and wood fuel for even the most basic tasks.

I agree with Robert Harris' "Second Sleep" where only population outside metropolitan areas survive the famine and violence. How could we today help the survivors to rekindle a *sustainable* organisation?
Which cultures r likely to rekindle societal organisation beyond tribes? IMO non-urban S-America. How to bolster those future attempts today, paper knowledge caches? How to curate that knowledge for its likely usefulness? "When there's no pharma industry: medicine for dummies"...
Read 13 tweets
Jul 3, 2022
Do you see the near-term risk for civilisation collapse? Or did it merely seem like a form of fear-porn when Prof Steffen wrote about it in 2019?

Today I realised how I didn't see it earlier, why it took another 3 yrs odyssey spent on hard-sci & boneless ballads on degrowth.
The soft-sci troubadours sing about degrowth and doughnuts. Ballads of soft "transitions" to utopia. Risk awareness can't grow because these ballads are about a far-away time, not heeding the requirements of today's breeched planetary boundaries/budget.
I spent lotsa time deciphering the climate of the Pliocene or MIS11 and listening to ballads of "transitions" to utopia.
Assuming that this surely was what I need to know.
But neither physicists nor troubadours cover what would have raised my risk-awareness to reality-levels.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 3, 2022
Intriguing.
A long drought prevailed AD 500ff in East Mediterranean & Arab Peninsula. Might've been in more regions but these I know of.

The 1st plague epidemic from rat fleas began in Kush/Egypt 541-549 and culled MENA & Europe.

Long droughts cause (death, war and) migration..
Did (the aftermath of) the drought fuel epidemic spread? Likely. Drought weakens states, workers flee, wars ensue, armies carry🪲everywhere.

Did Kush experience drought, too? Was the (onset of the) pandemic even caused by rats' or human behaviour that was influenced by drought? Image
What human or rat behaviour would trigger rat fleas to jump and infect humans?
I'd imagine you need lots of rats to increase the chances of a few infected fleas to jump. These rats need food and also be brave enough to run around in the immediate vicinity of humans.
Hm.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 2, 2022
Intriguing is that Chile's citizens turned out to be the most risk-aware in this international Facebook survey. Of its 19mio citizens, 1094 took part in the survey and 60-70% know they'll be harmed personally by climate change.
This is the level of awareness we need!

How come?
The survey was conducted in Mar-Apr 2022, ~6 months after election and 1 month after inauguration of new left govt. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Chil…
I don't know anything of the talking points during their election. The only thing I know is, they now have a cli-sci as new EP secretary. Image
It might be that election campaigns were based on climate by all candidates and that this has in turn heightened the climate-awareness and the so important risk-awareness so much so that 60-70% rightly assume personal harm from climate change.
2 more awareness-factors could be
Read 12 tweets
Jun 28, 2022
@UTneighbourofET @micha_bloss @MelnykAndrij @sven_giegold @AndrewSimms_uk Im Sept kommt Ulrike Herrmanns Buch dazu raus. Weiß nicht, ob sie das Wie skizziert oder nur das Warum. Es geht über Triage Economy + Rationen für allEs.

Ich habe gestern Forschungsgeld beantragt😎für die Analyse des Wie und des wieviel CO2 es kostet😁
@UTneighbourofET @micha_bloss @MelnykAndrij @sven_giegold @AndrewSimms_uk @drmihai78 hatte jetzt schon 2 Events, wo er in einer Talkrunde als Zuschauer mit seiner Frage drangenommen wurde, was die Gäste denn zu Rationen denken. Der Typ bei Phönix meinte dann, dass er dazu mal ne Sendung machen will.

Und Lanz hat auch schon zu Herrmann dasselbe gesagt.
@UTneighbourofET @micha_bloss @MelnykAndrij @sven_giegold @AndrewSimms_uk @drmihai78 Es werden 2 Sendunden nach dem Motto "nett, aber nicht durchsetzbar" werden.Sind ja Redakteure, die die Dramaturgie bestimmen & die haben auf Rationen 0 Bock. So klimadoof wie Polit- u WirtschaftsJournos sich verhalten, is das klar.

Egal. Wenn Bürger drüber reden wird's kommen🖖
Read 11 tweets

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