OK, I keep seeing this convention hot take that hashtag #ACKSHUALLY the way for Trump to win is to target his convention to loyal Republicans and increase their turnout by 10 points or more over Ds (which is totally possible under the theory). Here's why that's wrong. 1/n
Trump would need to drive nearly impossibel levels of differential turnout to close a 9-10 percentage point gap in the polls based on turnout alone.
Here is one table that shows a hypothetical election where Biden is up 9.5 and 65% of all Ds, Rs and Is turn out to vote.
Here is one table that shows a hypothetical election where Biden is up 9.5 and 65% of all Ds, Rs and Is turn out to vote.
Now let's crank Republican turnout up to 70%, 5 points higher than Dem or Indie turnout. Already this is a pretty large turnout differential for presidential elections, and I think it's unlikely a convention could cause this on its own.
This nudges Trump up from -9.6 to -7.4
This nudges Trump up from -9.6 to -7.4
What if we make Republican turnout 10 points higher than Dem/Indy turnout? TEN POINTS?
Trump from -7.4 to -5.6
Trump from -7.4 to -5.6
Only if we give Trump a 15-point turnout differential and boost his vote loyalty by 2 points do we get him to -2 nationally, about where he needs to be to win the electoral college. This should be considered a pretty impossible task.
OK. Now let's return to the original turnout scenario and fiddle with partisan loyalty numbers instead. If we give Trump a lead in loyalty (eg he wins more Rs than Bidens wins Ds) and we give him Independents, then we get the same Biden +2.2.
So this is why I don't listen to the turnout truthers. It just isn't a realistic avenue for Trump to win enough voters to close so large a gap. He needs to be competing w/ Biden among vote-switchers and Is (& new voters, who I didn't factor in here) to have a chance. /end
