It's clear where Trump sees opportunity to offset erosion in support since '16: amping up turnout among his base - non-college whites.
And by my math, non-college whites were a disproportionate share of '16 *non-voters* in all '20 battlegrounds except AZ and TX.
And by my math, non-college whites were a disproportionate share of '16 *non-voters* in all '20 battlegrounds except AZ and TX.
By my estimate, in '16 non-college whites made up 50% of the nation's non-voters (vs. 44% of voters), including:
76% in Iowa
74% in Maine
71% in New Hampshire
68% in Ohio
66% in Pennsylvania
64% in Minnesota
63% in Wisconsin
62% in Michigan
54% in North Carolina
76% in Iowa
74% in Maine
71% in New Hampshire
68% in Ohio
66% in Pennsylvania
64% in Minnesota
63% in Wisconsin
62% in Michigan
54% in North Carolina
Of course, there's no guarantee that these white, non-college non-voters would support Trump at nearly the same rate as their peers who voted in '16.
But this is precisely why there's no guarantee sky-high turnout will benefit Biden, particularly in the Midwestern battlegrounds.
But this is precisely why there's no guarantee sky-high turnout will benefit Biden, particularly in the Midwestern battlegrounds.
