This storm is the real deal. Massive damage potential. Thoughts and prayers are with TX and LA tonight.
A few things to watch:
A few things to watch:
First: the water, not just the wind.
One of the misleading aspects of how we rate hurricanes is that their strength is measures by windspeed, yet the worst damage often comes from the water they shift or drop.
One of the misleading aspects of how we rate hurricanes is that their strength is measures by windspeed, yet the worst damage often comes from the water they shift or drop.
Hurricane Harvey hit TX as a cat-IV in 2017, but did most of its damage via prolonged rainfall even after windspeeds has diminished considerably.
Hurricane Katrina hit NOLA as a cat-III in 2005, but did its worst damage via severe flooding.
Hurricane Katrina hit NOLA as a cat-III in 2005, but did its worst damage via severe flooding.
Watch not just the wind damage at landfall, but more importantly the storm surge those winds push ashore, and the rain that drops across the region.
The @NHC_Atlantic is calling that storm surge "unsurvivable", which is not a term thrown around lightly.
The @NHC_Atlantic is calling that storm surge "unsurvivable", which is not a term thrown around lightly.
Second: how will poverty and inequality shape the human toll of the storm?
There are no natural disasters, only natural hazards. Whether a hazard becomes a disaster depends on the vulnerability it encounters.
There are no natural disasters, only natural hazards. Whether a hazard becomes a disaster depends on the vulnerability it encounters.
What made Katrina (05) and Maria (17) such devastating events was the overlay of major storms with especially vulnerable and marginalized populations.
The people who can't evacuate, don't have emergency reserves, can't access online or cell phone based services, fare the worst.
The people who can't evacuate, don't have emergency reserves, can't access online or cell phone based services, fare the worst.
The USG still has far too much of a poverty blind spot in its disaster response practices. Katrina and Maria are poster children for how this can greatly compound the human toll.
Third: the political factor.
Despite all the grief it gets (some deserved) FEMA is actually pretty good at what it does. And in TX and LA is has good state-level counterparts to work with.
So if this ends up being a normal-ish event, the system should work OK.
Despite all the grief it gets (some deserved) FEMA is actually pretty good at what it does. And in TX and LA is has good state-level counterparts to work with.
So if this ends up being a normal-ish event, the system should work OK.
But what worries me when I see things like a projection of a 40-mile storm surge is that this will be an abnormal disaster.*
(* all disasters are by def'n abnormal - but some are in special category of complexity - the Katrinas and Marias, etc)
(* all disasters are by def'n abnormal - but some are in special category of complexity - the Katrinas and Marias, etc)
When a disaster is particularly major, or operationally challenging, or socioeconomically complex, it challenges the standard systems that FEMA uses (we faces analogous challenges managing things like Ebola when I ran disaster response at USAID).
It's hard for a government agency to effectively manage something it wasn't built for. When that happens - when a response gets uniquely large or complex - a POTUS-led, whole-of-govt response is required.
That takes coherent White House leadership and coordination to work.
That takes coherent White House leadership and coordination to work.
Will Laura create that kind of situation? Too soon to tell. But if so, I worry - because whether it's COVID or Puerto Rico or a variety of other complex crisis mgmt challenges, that's where this White House tends to struggle.
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