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More from @SethAbramson

Seth Abramson

@SethAbramson

Nov 10

Trump won by 255K votes in the 3 states that decided the election. A swing of 128K votes in those states and Harris is POTUS.

Estimates have him winning under 50% of the popular vote.

MAGA lost Senate races in WI, MI, NV, and AZ. It may lose the House.

Hard to see a landslide.

The margin of victory Trump will end up with, 1.5%, is the smallest margin any incumbent party in the developed world has lost by post-pandemic, and in case you did not know, this is the first year since World War II in which every incumbent party has lost in the developed world.

We were told VP Harris received 20 million fewer votes than Biden.

We were even told that that supposed fact proved the 2020 election was stolen.

But by the time all the votes are counted, the data indicates Harris will have received only about 4 million fewer votes than Biden.

Read 5 tweets

Seth Abramson

@SethAbramson

Nov 9

(🧵) The 2024 U.S. presidential election was *not* stolen: a THREAD.

RETWEET for anyone in your life going down this road.

1/ Some notes to start:

1⃣ I’m as devastated by this loss as anyone—for more reasons than I can say or readers will know. Please understand, I feel the same pain as you.
2⃣ If contrary hard evidence emerges, I will say so.
3⃣ I worked on post-vote stolen-election claims in 2004.

2/ Every analysis—and many of the ones I mean are coming from the *right* (using current data to “prove” that the *2020* election was stolen)—that relies on *current* vote tallies is bogus. Millions of votes are still being counted, and the final results will look very different.

Read 42 tweets

Seth Abramson

@SethAbramson

Nov 8

(📢) PROOF EXCLUSIVE: Proof of Consequences, Vol. 1: Where America Goes Now

🔗:

This one is nearly book-length, but it’s a barnburner. It’s FREE with a one-week trial of PROOF, a Top 25 U.S. Politics substack.

Please RETWEET this so everyone can see it. sethabramson.substack.com/p/proof-of-con…

1/ A lot of people are asking me whether the lengthy report above—like I said, it is probably nearly book-length (and surely novella-length)—will address the allegations now floating around social media that the 2024 presidential election was stolen.

2/ Many of you probably do not know that I got my start in so-called bigtime national political journalism in 2004—bigtime, at least, in the sense that major media outlets (e.g. ROLLING STONE) covered my political journalism. At the time I was mostly focused on the 2004 election.

Read 36 tweets

Seth Abramson

@SethAbramson

Nov 7

Just a quick note here in advance of Trump and Musk crashing the economy in 2025: Trump voters are going to blame Democrats for that too.

Read up on fascism and cults and stop assuming we have a rational electorate that’s actually looking at economic indicators. It simply isn’t.

If anyone is looking ahead to 2025 and thinking that when Donald Trump breaks things, kills people, ends alliances and treaties, and endangers all of us he’ll be blamed for it, think again. You can’t *imagine* the degree of pain he’ll need to cause people before they turn on him.

Trump is a proxy for issues in people and culture Democrats can’t resolve via politics. He is a fever that will either kill this country dead or bring it so close to death—and I mean spectacularly, painfully close to death—that the fever breaks. Democrats better learn that quick.

Read 7 tweets

Seth Abramson

@SethAbramson

Nov 6

(🧵) ELECTION THREAD: I’ve been waiting all night to say anything substantive about what’s happened, as I felt—I still do—that I might say something I’d regret.

I hope you’ll consider following along as I try to process this with you all, and try to do it responsibly. Please RT.

1/ The New York Times gives Trump more a 90% chance of winning the election. Barring a miracle—and none is on the horizon at present—he will win.

And if by some miracle Harris won, it would be such a shock that it would almost certainly cause widespread Trumpist violence anyway.

2/ He isn’t just winning. At present this is shaping up to be a landslide. This is not Harris doing as Biden did. This is not Harris doing as Clinton did. This is Harris losing Texas by 15, Florida by 13, Iowa by 14, Ohio by 11...

This is Trump *wildly* outperforming all polls.

Read 36 tweets

Seth Abramson

@SethAbramson

Nov 4

(📢) MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump and MAGA's Kremlin Allies Planning Terrorist Attacks Inside the United States; Trump and MAGA's Support for Putin and Russia Remains Unaffected By Prospect of September 11th-Style Attacks Committed By Their America-Hating Political Partners

MORE/ Retweet this widely so that all Americans can understand that the Kremlin and Trump have exactly the same political agenda—to stoke not just figurative but actual chaos and mayhem across the United States. MAGA is an anti-American political movement. wsj.com/world/russia-p…

PS/ Here's what you *won't* see in light of the news of coming 9/11-style terror attacks committed by Putin, the Kremlin, and Russia: you won't see Trump distance himself from Putin, the Kremlin or Russia. You won't see MAGAs distance themselves from Putin, the Kremlin or Russia.

Read 5 tweets

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