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therealarod1984 Profile picture
@therealarod1984
Aug 29, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
2 hours of live feed from the #BerlinProtest . Appears to be several hundred thousand people.

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
Oct 22
Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary

1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds

1/n Image
Battleground state summary - Page 2

2/n
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:

* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points

2/n Image
Battleground state summary - Page 2

* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points

3/end Image
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Nov 22, 2022
"Random Dude on Twitter" is my second nickname. "Random Dude on Twitter" has been right A LOT. Let's look at some receipts, shall we?

THREAD

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Let's see...."Random Dude on Twitter" predicted Texas Hospitalization peak to the day not just once....

2/n
....but TWICE. In fact, this first time I did it, I called myself "Random Dude on Twitter."

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Nov 21, 2022
11/21 - Domestic Passenger Traffic: Pre-Thanksgiving Edition

* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday

THREAD

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11/21 Airlines Page 2

* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%

2/n Image
11/21 Airlines Page 3

* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically

3/n ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
May 17, 2022
5/16 - Texas C19: Omicron BA.Whatever

THREAD:

* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low

1/n
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

As of 5/6:

* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.

2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases

* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising

3/n
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
May 11, 2022
5/11 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there

THREAD

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5/11 Airlines Page 2

The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.

Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.

2/n ImageImage
5/11 Airlines Page 3

Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.

The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.

3/n ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Apr 11, 2022
4/10 - Texas C19 Update: Still nothing

THREAD:

* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain

Let's go through it!

1/n
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

* 2 tweets on testing today

As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...

2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2

* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.

3/n
Read 10 tweets

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